Why We Should Be Bullish On Pete Crow-Armstrong's Underlying Peripherals

[matto1233]

A couple of weeks back, I was fortunate enough to attend all three Cubs games in Cincinnati. Pete Crow-Armstrong notched two hits in 12 plate appearances, which, in that admittedly small sample size, was good for a brutal 10 wRC+. With that said, is Crow-Armstrong turning a corner at the plate?

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

To my mostly untrained eye, Pete Crow-Armstrong's plate appearances seemed different for the former top prospect. More importantly, they seemed different in a good way. He was driving the ball to the outfield much more often. The contact quality from those three games would back up that thought. He had a 92.7 mph average exit velocity and 55.6 percent hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs. Those are significant improvements on his numbers for the full season: an 88.9 mph average exit velocity and a 36.0 percent hard-hit rate. 

Admittedly, I haven’t been able to watch a ton of Cubs baseball since. Between the Olympics, an out-of-town trip, and otherwise doing activities that are better for my mental health, I didn’t have a chance to sit down and watch a full Cubs game until the Cleveland series this past week. Of course, I follow closely from afar, and while PCA’s raw numbers don’t back it up quite yet, he has been a different and much better hitter since the season flipped to the second half. 

	K%	BB%	wOBA	xwOBA	Exit Velocity
PCA First Half	25.9%	4.6%	.255	.249	87.3
PCA Second Half	15.7%	2.4%	.278	.319	91.6

By xwOBA, he has been a league-average hitter! Not only that, but he has trimmed the strikeout rate considerably, and he is hitting the ball more than 4 mph harder, on average, than he was in the first half. This is a huge development for a guy who has been one of the most valuable defenders in baseball. 

So, where has he made improvements? If someone is cutting their strikeout rate almost in half and improving contact quality in the process, the first thing I assume is that they are being more selective with their swings. 

	O-Swing %	Z-Swing %	Contact %
First Half	43.4%	72.6%	74.5%
Second Half	40.6%	76.9%	77.3%

So, he is making better swing decisions, leading to more contact and fewer called strikes. His called strike rate in the first half was 11.5 percent. In the second half, it’s down to 7.4 percent. Not only does swinging at better pitches mean you’ll strike out less, but typically, the balls you put in play will be hit a lot harder, which lines up with what we’re seeing out of PCA here. Let’s take this one step further.

	Pull%	Pull xwOBA	Center%	Center xwOBA	Opposite%	Opposite xwOBA
First Half	51.7%	.348	25.4%	.275	22.9%	.249
Second Half	36.8%	.407	45.6%	.417	17.6%	.207

To me, this looks like someone making a concerted effort to use the whole field and not just be a dead-pull hitter. Sure enough, on Friday afternoon, Crow-Armstrong launched his fifth home run of the year, and it was to center field:

In my writing, I try to stick to statistics and facts. I stay away from hitting and pitching mechanics because, frankly, I am not an expert in that area, and the Cubs employ multiple people who are. If you rewatch that video, try to do so while remembering what PCA’s swing looked like in the first half. Here is a still photo from that home run yesterday (second picture) and another one from one of his first games with the big league club (first picture). Both of these pitches resulted in home runs, for what it’s worth:

First, he has a higher leg kick, has adjusted his hand position a bit, and is standing closer to the plate. More significantly, though, is how he has closed off his stance. In the first picture, you can see his back knee behind his front leg. In the second picture, you cannot see the backside of his back leg. To me, this is a clear sign that he is showing more willingness to use the whole field, which is demonstrated in his much better contact quality with center field. 

Things haven’t always been pretty for Pete Crow-Armstrong this year. He was thrust into a spot on the major league roster out of necessity and, frankly, before his bat was ready for it. Sometimes, players have to develop at the big league level rather than in the minors, and this is what we’re seeing from PCA here. After yesterday’s bomb, his wRC+ in August is up to 138. The raw numbers are slowly starting to back up the increased contact quality. Seeing continued success out of the youngster will be the most important thing for the Cubs over the season's final six weeks, whether playoffs or not. 

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[Tank]

Good stuff, Matto. 

[Bertz]

I wish there was a quick and easy way to distinguish the egregiosness of a guy's chases out of the zone.  Because PCA's chase rates have improved modestly as you've got here, but they're still very high.  However it feels like he's cut WAY down on the "Oh my god what are you swinging at?!" swings.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I wish there was a quick and easy way to distinguish the egregiosness of a guy's chases out of the zone.  Because PCA's chase rates have improved modestly as you've got here, but they're still very high.  However it feels like he's cut WAY down on the "Oh my god what are you swinging at?!" swings.  

It's never only one thing, but the trend line and the relationship to his actual success at the plate seems like a clear positive step

 

 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It's never only one thing, but the trend line and the relationship to his actual success at the plate seems like a clear positive step

 

 

Yeah I think this is kind of what I'm lamenting.  His Oswing numbers look comparable to May, but anecdotally the swing decisions have gotten much better.  If we could get a graph like this of SEAGER or something I bet it'd really pop?

While not as quick and easy as a Fangraphs table I might have found somewhat what I'm looking for, but it doesn't totally back up my assertion.  This is swing rate at pitches in the zones Statcast designates as Chase and Waste:

April: 3/17 = 17.6%

May: 11/47 = 23.4%

June: 23/70 = 32.9%

July: 30/72 = 41.7%

August: 10/51 = 19.6%

So he has gotten better, but it's not that different from early in the year.  So it's encouraging but not something we can totally write off as ebbs and flows since he has been there before.

[matto1233]

On 8/18/2024 at 12:06 PM, TomtheBombadil said:

In combo with non-elite power, that 2-3% BB rate, and some swing and miss not reflected in K rate (15% swstrk), it’s why I’m not gung ho yet. I’m still skeptical of Cubs fans yet again handing a 2.0 starting job to a prospect they’ve heard of out of a desperation to have payroll efficiency (franchise priority #1) and return to the glorious 15 mins btw rebuild 1.0 and 2.0. 

The counterpoint to this would be:

 

1) the swinging strike rate is a LITTLE bit better in the second half at 13.7 percent, and is down to 11.2 percent in August. 

2) the walk rate is low, however, it is a function of him both getting so many pitches in the zone and swinging at so many pitches in the zone. In the second half, that strategy has resulted in better production, so until the hits stop coming, I won’t be too worried about it. 

[matto1233]

23 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I think this is kind of what I'm lamenting.  His Oswing numbers look comparable to May, but anecdotally the swing decisions have gotten much better.  If we could get a graph like this of SEAGER or something I bet it'd really pop?

While not as quick and easy as a Fangraphs table I might have found somewhat what I'm looking for, but it doesn't totally back up my assertion.  This is swing rate at pitches in the zones Statcast designates as Chase and Waste:

April: 3/17 = 17.6%

May: 11/47 = 23.4%

June: 23/70 = 32.9%

July: 30/72 = 41.7%

August: 10/51 = 19.6%

So he has gotten better, but it's not that different from early in the year.  So it's encouraging but not something we can totally write off as ebbs and flows since he has been there before.

He did have a 114 wRC+ in April in a tiny sample size. It could be an ebb and flow but it also feels consistent with what he needs to do to be a productive big leaguer.