Cubs GM Jed Hoyer Needs To Start Prioritizing Great Players, Not Great Value

[Brian Kelder]

As Jed Hoyer navigates toward the end of his fourth season as the Cubs' General Manager, there is little to indicate his cautious ways are going to change.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

To his credit or possibly as a team-assigned part of his job, Jed Hoyer speaks regularly on 670 The Score. Mostly, these radio hits are deliberately vague and make Cub fans mad in either direction, positive or negative. For such a bland personality, Jed Hoyer evokes strong, strong reactions.

This past week, Hoyer finally unleashed some juicy nuggets. Two tender, juicy quotes were given, much to the credit of the questioners. Here’s the first:

Quote

I would not say that I’m fundamentally opposed to it,” Hoyer said on the Parkins & Spiegel Show on Wednesday afternoon. “I think with any deal like that, there’s a lot of risk. And I think that obviously, at some level, you’re paying – with any of those deals – you’re assuming that when you sign that player in free agency, there’s an awareness that most likely the end of that deal is going to be highly inefficient and that you really have to gain the efficiency early in that deal. So yeah, I think there’s of course a lot of risk in that.

I’m not fundamentally opposed to it. I do think that I’m probably more risk-averse on those kinds of deals. Those are the deals you sign the… truly elite. I think there’s obviously a lot of risk in them. But fundamentally, are there players in this league that I think are definitely worth it? Absolutely.

First of all, the Dansby Swanson deal, according to him, needs to be efficient now. Oops!

Hoyer is very smart, given his budget constraints. His owner will not sign a player like this unless he’s a unicorn MVP who can pitch and hit. It’s also wise policy not to rule out signing the best players in baseball out of hand.

Reading into the quotes, though, a fan can’t help but feel pessimistic about the current Cubs' ability and desire to add in this meaningful way. The serious contenders have these types of bats; the Dodgers and Phillies have three each. Barring a shocking and unforeseen prospect breakout, the Cubs will continue to field an inconsistent product on the offensive end.

The fan experience here also suffers. Who is the Cub who makes you say, “We need to get to watch that guy in person?” Of course, getting him will require that major contract. Count the Cubs out of that sweepstakes. Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker are out of the question.

What does this mean for the off-season at hand? The Cubs will have a ton of freed-up cash, upwards of $80 million. They won’t play at the top. Anthony Santander might be the highest target. Corbin Burnes would fit; it's hard to see them pay that tag. Pete Alonso isn’t elite enough. Neither is Alex Bregman. Expect another bargain-hunting offseason, and expect the payroll to be lower than this season.

This, of course, should be expected. They wouldn’t pay fair value for a Hall of Fame track player in Bryce Harper, whose best friend was a Cub, named his dog Wrigley and was asking to come. Juan Soto could come to the Cubs with the Andre Dawson blank check, and if the only ask was over $400 million or ten years, they would just walk away. It’s a poor fan experience to run a team in this way.

Real teams don’t have to care about bad contracts. The teams just add around it. Being a Cubs fan means worrying about The Dansby Disaster because it will affect later spending. A Cub fan has to accept that they’ll never make a competitive offer to Shohei Ohtani, even if they did make an offer that wouldn’t be considered. A team that prints their own money (seriously, Clark the Cub is on the upcoming three-dollar bill) talking about risk aversion and inefficiency for deals is incredibly tone-deaf. You spend past the risk and make up for inefficiency. None of this is crippling.

On to point two...

This is very concerning on one level. Prospects, of course, need a runway to develop. The Cubs have an entire lineup under contract for two more years. Regardless, all of the regulars will be better than the prospects for two years. So why do they constantly trumpet their farm system like it will save things?

Let’s use Owen Caissie as an example. He’s currently hitting .277 with ten home runs in Iowa. We already know that the Cubs don’t believe he’ll be a positive contributor right away, and he surely is not better than Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki. Same story for Matt Shaw. Same story for Kevin Alcantara. The lineup is not going to count on kids for production.

Every time Jed goes public, he gives less and less confidence that he will be able to do the moves needed. The league pays attention to this stuff; saying he worries about long-term free-agent deals makes agents look elsewhere unless you’re Swanson’s agent and somehow snooker the Cubs into a seven-year deal. This caution must be shed, and the prospects must be used on the field or traded. It is time for Jed Hoyer to take control of this team and make it something great, not a collection of great values,

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