Cubs Prospects On the Rise: Position Players

[Jason Ross]

As the midway point of the baseball season slides by, it's time to take a look at the health of the Cubs' farm system. Today, we'll take a look at the prospects in the Cubs organization who have raised their stock throughout the 2024 season.

Image courtesy of © MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK

Heading into the back half of the season, and with the MLB Draft looming, it's time to take a look at how the Cubs' hitting prospects are doing. These are not ranked in any specific order, as it's just an overall recap of a handful of players who have raised their stock throughout the season. Some have put themselves in prime positions for call-ups, while others have rescued their faltering prospect status.

Moises Ballesteros, C, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
Very few prospects across baseball have raised their profile as much as Ballesteros has (from an offensive point of view), which is not to suggest his prospect status was low entering the season, either. Big Mo was generally seen as a back-end top-10 prospect in the system, with outside looks and honorable mentions on top-100 lists. The Cubs' catcher was coming off a good season in South Bend, posting a 128 wRC+ as a 19-year-old, and was promoted to Tennessee to start the season as one of the youngest Double-A prospects in the league. What followed was not expected, however.

Mo Baller lit Double-A on fire. Through 56 games, he was 53% better than league average, hitting nine home runs, nine doubles, and even a triple, while striking out less than 15% of the time. It was one of the best seasons any 20-year-old has had in Double-A in the last two decades, comparable to the kind of stuff Mike Trout was doing (that's not to say he's Trout, of course). It was clear he was ready for Triple-A Iowa, and he was duly promoted. What's he done? Posted a 150 wRC+ in his first 10 games. There's no stopping the guy right now. 

Behind the plate, the glove is still a work in progress. He's not MLB-ready yet, and is showing a little more swing-and-miss in Iowa than in previous stops. That's not dousing him in water, just saying it's probably too early to pencil him into the Cubs' DH spot right now. With that said, though, doing just that in September might be viable.

Owen Caissie, RF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
Caissie remains one of the youngest players in Triple-A, and has responded by getting off the ground running. Seeing a significant decrease in his K% (under 28%) while maintaining a near 15% walk rate, the red-headed right fielder is doing almost everything right. He's flashed improved footwork in the field and a plus arm. Really, the only thing we're missing is the power. Though it's hard to entirely fault a .170 ISO, you'd like to see him generate a little extra loft. 

What's even more fun is going under the hood. Caissie is hitting lefties better than righties this year, suggesting he's not just a platoon guy moving forward. The contact rate, while not setting the world on fire, is likely "pretty good," at 68%. It's below both the minor- and the major-league average, but with the (projected) power and walks to go with it, that should be offset. Caissie, previously an exit-velocity specialist, has managed to post high BABIPs throughout his pro career, which suggests that when he does connect, he hits it hard enough to maintain that. It's hard to argue his profile hasn't been raised, or at least fleshed out, in 2024.

James Triantos, 2B, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A)
If Ballesteros hadn't had such a marvelous first half, I think we'd be paying more attention to the great year James Triantos is putting together in Tennessee. The knock on Triantos has always been the lack of slug in his game, but he's shown a newfound commitment to generating power this season, as he's hit seven home runs on the year (nearly double his four last year in High-A) while nearly doubling his ISO. The strikeout rate remains at a minuscule sub-10%, and on the whole, he's been a 138 wRC+ hitter.

The diminutive second baseman has really taken off over the last month. Since the calendar ticked over to June, Triantos has a 208 wRC+; a .600+ SLG; is striking out 7% of the time; and has been absolutely scorching-hot. He's even playing better defense and finding success at second base and in center field. He's almost assuredly going to be on the move to Iowa shortly. 

Ed Howard, SS, South Bend Cubs (High-A)
This one is less about a top prospect, but about a prospect who's raised his game and re-emerged as a potentially useful guy. I was ready to write him off, entering mid-May; he looked sluggish, slow and sapped of the energy that made him a fun and interesting prospect in 2020. He's had a tough road. He didn't get a senior year of high school (thanks, COVID); was pushed into Myrtle Beach right away (a very tough hitting environment); and then right when he started to look comfortable, he had a devastating hip injury. Upon his return from it, he looked toasted. Then... something changed. 

From May 25 to the present, Howard has played 24 games. In 94 plate appearances, he's managed a .379 batting average, has hit eight doubles (of his season total of 12), has a 156 wRC+, and has shown a quality approach at the plate. The only thing that's missing are the home runs. Most of all, he's remained healthy through this time. 

Suspend for a moment your awareness that he's a first-round pick in real danger of not panning out. Once you do so, you realize: that's a great run. A 156 wRC+ is higher than Ballesteros has in Iowa or Tennessee on the season. Yeah, it's fewer games, and yeah, it could just be a hot streak, but has he not raised his prospect profile? He finally looks like someone who's not only settled at a level, but may be really figuring a level out. At 22 years old, he's not dead, and being a 22-year-old in Tennessee (to where, like others, I suspect he'll be promoted shortly) doesn't put him behind any sort of acceptable developmental arc. Maybe he's not going to be a star, but even if he's back in play as a backup infielder at the MLB level... well, a month ago, I thought he may not even make it the entire season before being released. Great comeback story, and he deserves to be on this list. 

Alfonsin Rosario, OF, Myrtle Beach (Low-A)
Rosario, a sixth-round selection in 2023, has really made himself known in Myrtle Beach. First, the negative: he's striking out a lot. Like, a lot, a lot. The near-35% punchout rate is not great, but that was kind of expected. The book on Rosario was "big tools, but raw."

However, if we put that aside for a moment, the rest of what Rosario's been doing is nothing short of impressive. He's hit 10 home runs (many of the "very loud" variety), has an ISO north of .200, has stolen 13 bases (this man is listed at 6-foot-1, 220 pounds; he's big), and has posted a 138 wRC+ in his first taste of full-season professional baseball. Oh, did I mention he's been playing center field?

The strikeouts need to get ironed out at some point, but as a sixth-round pick, Rosario is flashing all the tools you'd hope to see. There's work to do, but you don't normally expect this out of this kind of pick--at least not this quickly. He's definitely a name to watch moving forward. Maybe the strikeouts never get fixed and this will be exploited later, but I'm impressed with his start and excited to see where he goes. There's massive upside here, even if it's an unlikely ceiling to be reached.

Cristian Hernández, SS, Myrtle Beach (Low-A)
Hernández felt like he was really starting to wane in the public eye, because he really had struggled since being placed on the Myrtle Beach roster. Lanky and awkward, he seemed to struggle to control the barrel through the zone. Mechanical tweaks, some added muscle and all of a sudden, Hernández is cruising in South Carolina. Posting a 141 wRC+, with far improved K% and BB%, and a .135 ISO, he's starting to look like a total package. It feels like forever ago that the hype train ran out of steam, but Hernández is just 20 years old. Once he gets promoted to South Bend (which could happen any day now), he'll be in an age-appropriate league, and he's arguably a fringe-top-10 Cubs prospect, pre-Draft. This is a really great season for someone who had slid off many top-20 lists entering the year.

Who do you think is having a great 2024 season so far? Have I forgotten anyone? Let me know in the comments section below!

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[Jason Ross]

Of course I wrote this yesterday...the day Ed Howard hit his first home run! So his numbers are even better!