Trading Justin Steele Will Hurt But It Might Be The Best Path Toward Sustained Contention

[Brian Kelder]

In this wasted year, it’s time to put everything on the table. The Cubs have no great bats. The system isn’t developing a great bat. A baseball team needs a great bat to win; there is no chance this bat will come.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Looking at the World Series winners from the past 20 years, all but one had either an MVP-level season or a Hall of Fame player on them. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, David Ortiz, Jose Altuve, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Juan Soto, and Buster Posey are the names from just the last ten years. The Cubs have no such names on the roster or the farm.

It’s time to trade Justin Steele for some bats with that potential. But why would we want to move the Cubs' most consistent pitcher since Jon Lester?

The first reason to advocate for a Steele trade is how long he's under team control.

With his current $4 million contract and three more years of control, Steele's return in trade should be elite. Garrett Crochet is the only starter with Steele's combination of performance and controllability.

Secondly, and alongside the first point, it's unsure whether Steele will be a great asset until his team control ends at age 32. His injury history is under-discussed. He already has one Tommy John surgery in that left elbow. Two of the past three seasons have been interrupted with hamstring issues, and the third with a (gulp) forearm strain. His history is dotted with yearly injuries; as he ages, this will probably increase (note Dansby Swanson's constant issues as a much better athlete).

Because of how cautious this front office is, their pitching staff is littered with injury-prone pitchers. Jameson Taillon is a time bomb. Javier Assad just broke. Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown are also casualties. Steele isn’t the 180-inning anchor that the Cubs need. Flip him before he breaks, as well.

I can read your mind, random internet reader. The Cubs were just one game away from the playoffs, and he was a Cy Young candidate. Who else on this team will net even the possibility of that great future Cub? They won’t splurge for a Juan Soto contract and haven’t developed a true star. Steele is their best and most valuable trade chip.

It's hard to speculate on teams' willingness to trade for any specific player, but the Orioles would be the perfect match for the Cubs. Samuel Basallo profiles as the corner infield power bat that would fit exactly what the lineup is missing. Connor Norby has no position in Baltimore and would fit in a future infield with Matt Shaw. Heston Kjerstad is another power bat with Kyle Tucker upside. It's hard to predict which players Baltimore will make available, but the excitement of this trade would help salvage this sorry season.

Look, I have nothing against Justin Steele. He’s been much more than many predicted he would be in 2022. I had him pegged as a 4.50 starter, a 4th starter type of pitcher. He could continue to perform as he has over the past 16 months but for the Cubs to acquire the legitimate stars they need to contend, Steele offers their best opportunity.

The Cubs might need to purge the roster of anyone on the team when they dumped the fan favorites a few years ago. The stench of tanking and on-purpose failure needs to be expunged. Steele moving on would be a great first step toward a legitimate rebuild.

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[Matt W]

Brian, you’re preaching to the choir here. Matt and I have been going back and forth on this since last year. It makes too much sense. They need to do something a bit dramatic to increase their odds of getting an offensive difference maker(s).

You pointed out some sound reasons to consider this but I’d add a couple. When you look at the “stuff” profiles in their rotation, there is some generic , but notable, overlap in the looks of Wicks, Shota, and Steele. 
 

What’d be a realistic package from say LAD or BAL( I realize how stupid these types of deliberations are but they’re fun…)?

[Tryptamine]

5 hours ago, Matt W said:

Brian, you’re preaching to the choir here. Matt and I have been going back and forth on this since last year. It makes too much sense. They need to do something a bit dramatic to increase their odds of getting an offensive difference maker(s).

You pointed out some sound reasons to consider this but I’d add a couple. When you look at the “stuff” profiles in their rotation, there is some generic , but notable, overlap in the looks of Wicks, Shota, and Steele. 
 

What’d be a realistic package from say LAD or BAL( I realize how stupid these types of deliberations are but they’re fun…)?

Mayo and Kjerstad is probably your best case scenario and even that might be wishful thinking. It would probably be something more like Mayo+Norby+like 3 other less and/or further away pieces. 

Edited June 30, 2024 by Tryptamine

[jersey cubs fan]