A New Manager Hasn't (Yet) Solved the Same Old Problems Facing the Cubs

[matto1233]

Maybe the genius of the Chicago Cubs' new $40-million skipper is only beginning to reveal itself. Maybe the glorious future of the franchise is close at hand, and it's just not yet visible to us. Then again, maybe we all owe David Ross an apology.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

With the Chicago Cubs making their first trip of the season to Milwaukee this week to face the Brewers, there has been much discussion about Craig Counsell and his decision to leave the Brewers to manage the Cubs last offseason. In firing David Ross and making Counsell the highest-paid manager in baseball, the Cubs surprised many, and announced emphatically that they were ready to make moves.

Counsell, many thought, would come in and help the Cubs address a bullpen that blew a league-high 10 saves in September and October last season, during their freefall out of a playoff position. The Brewers consistently had a good bullpen under Counsell, and they usually posted a stellar record in one-run games. The Cubs went just 21-24 in one-run contests last season, compared to the Brewers’ 29-18.

Well, so far... nothing is different for the Cubs. The offense is completely broken. The bullpen, while it has been better of late, is worse than it was last year. Heading into Monday’s disaster, they had a 4.25 ERA, which was 22nd in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Last year, it was 3.85. Also, the team is 11-10 in games decided by one run.

To make matters worse, the Brewers continue to roll. At 31-23, they're 3.5 games better than the Northsiders, and their bullpen ERA of 3.57 and WAR of 1.7 both place them as a top-10 relief corps in baseball. Their top two relievers by FanGraphs WAR, Trevor Megill and Bryan Hudson, were both pitchers in the Cubs’ organization as recently as three seasons ago. They’ve combined for 1.4 WAR. The Cubs’ entire bullpen is at 0.8.

Unreliable relief work was a constant issue last season. Yet, the only deadline addition to help that group was José Cuas. The only fresh faces in the bullpen to open this season were Héctor Neris and Yency Almonte. It should have been obvious that the bullpen was going to be a problem this year, too. Counsell isn’t the one who has to go out there and get outs. Despite the fact that he is now in the Cubs’ dugout and not the Brewers’, the bullpen special sauce--and the better-run organization--remains in Milwaukee. This is even with a payroll that hovers around half that of the big-market Cubs.

To be fair, the Cubs have had much more success developing pitchers of late. It’s just impossible not to be frustrated at seeing guys who were so recently in the Cubs’ employ excelling like this for the Brewers, even after poaching their manager.

Let this all be a reminder that failure (and success, too) is organization-wide, and let it also serve as an apology to Ross. I am sure there were some things he could have done differently last season to prevent the team's September swoon, but he also could have simply been given better players. Jed Hoyer went out this offseason and brought back Cody Bellinger, replaced Marcus Stroman with Shota Imanaga, installed Michael Busch at first base, and added Almonte and Neris to the bullpen. Somehow, a lot of us believed that a new face in the dugout was going to be enough to propel this team to the playoffs. That could still happen, but thus far, the identity of this team is very much akin to that of last year's.

The bats won’t always be as bad as they have been of late. I’ll even venture to say that the bullpen will get better, once the Cubs get healthier. On the flip side, though, I’d guess that Javier Assad and Imanaga will eventually start allowing some runs, so it all might cancel out anyway. To be clear, I don’t believe that much of this is Counsell’s fault, but in the same way, I didn’t believe that much of last season’s collapse was on Ross. So far, the early returns of the Counsell Era just aren’t much different from the Ross Era: a very average baseball team.

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[CubinNY]

We don't owe David Ross horsefeathers. 

[gflore34]

Megill and Hudson are both over performing, at some point there will be a regression hopefully, when it hurts the Brewers the most.  Plus, I like the upside of Hodge, Little, Brown and Wesneski they all have better or comparable stuff than Megill and Hudson, their ceilings are higher.

Edited May 29, 2024 by gflore34

[matto1233]

5 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Megill and Hudson are both over performing, at some point there will be a regression hopefully, when it hurts the Brewers the most.  Plus, I like the upside of Hodge, Little, Brown and Wesneski they all have better or comparable stuff than Megill and Hudson, their ceilings are higher.

I’d strongly disagree on the overperformance piece. Megill has a 2.57 ERA to go along with a 2.13 FIP, 2.33 xERA, and is striking out 31.6 percent of batters faced. Hudson has a 0.59 ERA to go along with a 2.08 FIP, a 1.99 xERA, and he is striking out 32,1 percent of batters faced. None of those numbers, to me, scream that a major regression is coming. 

 

We can quibble about stuff and ceilings, but the Cubs could have just had all six of those guys. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Majors and high minors are full of mid to late 20 somethings that sometimes break through due to opportunity or coaching/development tweaks, in the current pitching environment that's kinda how it goes for everyone.  You obviously would want to avoid being always on the losing side of those, but there's no indication that's been the Cubs' problem.  We can lament that Estrada went to SD and learned a splitter, or that Hudson and Megill look great 2 organizations and years later, but counting them as preventable failures is a bit short sighted given the circumstances(options, 40 man spots, years of experience) that drive many of these decisions.  Three different organizations had Leiter Jr. before he perfected his split, Merryweather couldn't miss enough bats as a Blue Jay to avoid a roster crunch, and Miller couldn't survive a crowded Mariners bullpen before jumping to the Cubs and immediately pitching even better than his mild MLB success.

[Guest234]

By this evening it is possible that "Jolly" Ollie Marmol will have a better 2024 record, and he will get Willson back in a month instead of never.

[Billy62]

     Pretty accurate here Matt, but I don't think the lions share of the blame should be placed at Counsell's feet. The manager can only put the players on the field, their performance is really up to them. If there is a failure here, it is higher up the food chain. The bullpen was a disaster last season and is just marginally better this season, but still a disaster. Our saving grace has been our starting pitching which has been nothing short of stellar. But, I can here the "boo-birds" winding up already. Last night Imonata got rocked or "Charlie Browned" if you prefer. It happens to all of them. Our offense has been very anemic, but has shown some signs of improvement and has put six-run efforts in in two consecutive games. Happ is starting to square the ball up, Busch went deep the game before, and Morel nearly launched one last night. True, Suzuki is still in the tank and Gomes and Amaya have been no-shows in the box score. While this team is good, it is not good enough to consistently pull wins out of single run performances. The players need to take ownership of this. If this was David Ross' team, I think we would be looking at the same dynamic here. The objective of a baseball team is to win ballgames. If that is not happening with the current roster, then maybe adjustments are in order. I know down in triple AAA there are guys who can hit, Bote to name one, Pete Crow-Armstrong to name another. I know there are contract and waiver issues with David Bote. But I ask you, if you bring him up and he has a positive impact on the lineup, what are the chances of him staying the remainder of the season? If not, and he goes into the tank and needs to be sent back down, if you lose him to a waiver claim, at his age, are you truly negatively impacted. So maybe a call-up, trade, or DFA is truly what is needed here.

[matto1233]

20 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The Majors and high minors are full of mid to late 20 somethings that sometimes break through due to opportunity or coaching/development tweaks, in the current pitching environment that's kinda how it goes for everyone.  You obviously would want to avoid being always on the losing side of those, but there's no indication that's been the Cubs' problem.  We can lament that Estrada went to SD and learned a splitter, or that Hudson and Megill look great 2 organizations and years later, but counting them as preventable failures is a bit short sighted given the circumstances(options, 40 man spots, years of experience) that drive many of these decisions.  Three different organizations had Leiter Jr. before he perfected his split, Merryweather couldn't miss enough bats as a Blue Jay to avoid a roster crunch, and Miller couldn't survive a crowded Mariners bullpen before jumping to the Cubs and immediately pitching even better than his mild MLB success.

Losing people like Megill, Hudson, and Estrada is less of the issue and more of a symptom of the overall issue. There’s no indication that losing relievers that break out has been the Cubs’ problem. However, finding those types of guys is something the Brewers, and other teams, have been far better at than the Cubs in the past eight years or so. Sorting by reliever WAR on Fangraphs from 2018, when the Brewers won their first division title during this stretch, to now, I think is pretty revealing. It goes Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, Padres, Astros, Brewers. Five of the top six are teams with a lot of resources, or some of the more respected front offices in baseball. There’s just no reason why the Cubs can’t be in that conversation, and seeing the Brewers do this so much better than them is frustrating. Even more so after the Cubs stole their manager. 

[matto1233]

2 hours ago, Billy62 said:

     Pretty accurate here Matt, but I don't think the lions share of the blame should be placed at Counsell's feet. The manager can only put the players on the field, their performance is really up to them. If there is a failure here, it is higher up the food chain. The bullpen was a disaster last season and is just marginally better this season, but still a disaster. Our saving grace has been our starting pitching which has been nothing short of stellar. But, I can here the "boo-birds" winding up already. Last night Imonata got rocked or "Charlie Browned" if you prefer. It happens to all of them. Our offense has been very anemic, but has shown some signs of improvement and has put six-run efforts in in two consecutive games. Happ is starting to square the ball up, Busch went deep the game before, and Morel nearly launched one last night. True, Suzuki is still in the tank and Gomes and Amaya have been no-shows in the box score. While this team is good, it is not good enough to consistently pull wins out of single run performances. The players need to take ownership of this. If this was David Ross' team, I think we would be looking at the same dynamic here. The objective of a baseball team is to win ballgames. If that is not happening with the current roster, then maybe adjustments are in order. I know down in triple AAA there are guys who can hit, Bote to name one, Pete Crow-Armstrong to name another. I know there are contract and waiver issues with David Bote. But I ask you, if you bring him up and he has a positive impact on the lineup, what are the chances of him staying the remainder of the season? If not, and he goes into the tank and needs to be sent back down, if you lose him to a waiver claim, at his age, are you truly negatively impacted. So maybe a call-up, trade, or DFA is truly what is needed here.

I certainly don’t think Counsell deserves all of the blame, either. As a matter of fact, I do think he is a better manager than Ross. Just not in any significant way. The team will hit again, but I think the first two months have revealed that Ross wasn’t the problem last year, and Counsell isn’t the fix this year. Guess we’ll see what the rest of the year brings!

[Guest234]

Bote is Theo's guy, he will only be back in the big leagues with another organization.

As a matter of fact, I do think he is a better manager than Ross. Just not in any significant way.  Huh?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, matto1233 said:

Losing people like Megill, Hudson, and Estrada is less of the issue and more of a symptom of the overall issue. There’s no indication that losing relievers that break out has been the Cubs’ problem. However, finding those types of guys is something the Brewers, and other teams, have been far better at than the Cubs in the past eight years or so. Sorting by reliever WAR on Fangraphs from 2018, when the Brewers won their first division title during this stretch, to now, I think is pretty revealing. It goes Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, Padres, Astros, Brewers. Five of the top six are teams with a lot of resources, or some of the more respected front offices in baseball. There’s just no reason why the Cubs can’t be in that conversation, and seeing the Brewers do this so much better than them is frustrating. Even more so after the Cubs stole their manager. 

Come on, being able to find unexpected performances on the fringes of the roster is not the primary reason those teams are at the top of reliever WAR.  It's especially galling to use this argument in comparison to the Brewers, Hader and Williams were 60% of their reliever WAR since 2018 despite throwing 13% of the innings.  

[matto1233]

9 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Come on, being able to find unexpected performances on the fringes of the roster is not the primary reason those teams are at the top of reliever WAR.  It's especially galling to use this argument in comparison to the Brewers, Hader and Williams were 60% of their reliever WAR since 2018 despite throwing 13% of the innings.  

Why are we discounting them because two guys have a bulk of the WAR? They still had to acquire those guys. The Brewers still traded for Hader before he had much hype as a prospect. The Cubs picked Rob Zastryzny before the Brewers selected Williams. Third on that list is Hoby Milner, who’s been reliable for them for three years now and they got for nothing. Besides, they have neither Hader nor Williams this year and the bullpen is still well above average. 

 

I get what you’re saying, and I agree to a point. Obviously, you need to get the big swings correct, too. However, getting fringe roster decisions correct is how you avoid still paying guys like Trey Mancini and Tucker Barnhart when they haven’t been on your team in almost a year. Or how you avoid feeling like you have to pay a guy like Hector Neris $9m. This stuff compounds, and makes the big decisions either easier or harder. 

[squally1313]

33 minutes ago, Guest234 said:

As a matter of fact, I do think he is a better manager than Ross. Just not in any significant way.  Huh?

Managers don't matter. If they did, the biggest contract in managerial history would be a lot more than what Hector Neris signed for this offseason. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, matto1233 said:

Why are we discounting them because two guys have a bulk of the WAR? They still had to acquire those guys. The Brewers still traded for Hader before he had much hype as a prospect. The Cubs picked Rob Zastryzny before the Brewers selected Williams. Third on that list is Hoby Milner, who’s been reliable for them for three years now and they got for nothing. Besides, they have neither Hader nor Williams this year and the bullpen is still well above average. 

 

I get what you’re saying, and I agree to a point. Obviously, you need to get the big swings correct, too. However, getting fringe roster decisions correct is how you avoid still paying guys like Trey Mancini and Tucker Barnhart when they haven’t been on your team in almost a year. Or how you avoid feeling like you have to pay a guy like Hector Neris $9m. This stuff compounds, and makes the big decisions either easier or harder. 

The point is those are very different pathways.  Developing pitching from within is obviously important, that's what the Brewers did with Hader and Williams, and also had positive knock on effects by being able to maximize lesser pitchers in lower leverage.  Of recent Cubs vintage, Alzolay is the biggest Cubs success in that regard, and only for part of a season. Until very recently that was the toll being paid for not developing pitchers, why McLeod didn't survive the front office shake up, etc.  Their improvements in that regard are starting to bear fruit, having already gotten 30+ excellent pen innings from Brown and Wesneski.

Unlocking something new in a mid-20s RP on his 2nd, 3rd, 4th organization is a different roster building pathway, that's what Hudson and Megill are, and what I'm talking about as a thing that happens in both directions to lots of teams. There's little indication the Cubs are net negative in that pathway, especially when talking about forward-facing given how recently they've turned Leiter Jr and Merryweather into relief aces, have had tentative success with Almonte and Miller, etc.

[matto1233]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The point is those are very different pathways.  Developing pitching from within is obviously important, that's what the Brewers did with Hader and Williams, and also had positive knock on effects by being able to maximize lesser pitchers in lower leverage.  Of recent Cubs vintage, Alzolay is the biggest Cubs success in that regard, and only for part of a season. Until very recently that was the toll being paid for not developing pitchers, why McLeod didn't survive the front office shake up, etc.  Their improvements in that regard are starting to bear fruit, having already gotten 30+ excellent pen innings from Brown and Wesneski.

Unlocking something new in a mid-20s RP on his 2nd, 3rd, 4th organization is a different roster building pathway, that's what Hudson and Megill are, and what I'm talking about as a thing that happens in both directions to lots of teams. There's little indication the Cubs are net negative in that pathway, especially when talking about forward-facing given how recently they've turned Leiter Jr and Merryweather into relief aces, have had tentative success with Almonte and Miller, etc.

Fair! Perhaps not articulated super well by me, or lost in the inclusion of Hudson/Megill, but the Brewers do all of the above better than the Cubs. Which is frustrating. The Cubs do seem to be getting better, but even with the acquisition of Counsell, the gap between the organizations still feels so frustratingly far. 

 

It can go beyond the pitching, too. Imagine how much better the Cubs would look if it was them that had traded a fringe top 100 prospect for William Contreras? The Brewers just seem to get value everywhere. 

[Guest234]

This is the reason why Counsell will be the lead man for the Cubs shortly. He had influence on personnel decisions in the Brewers organization that he will want to maintain with the Cubs and the way to do it is as chief executive, whatever the title.