A Bad Day, a Bad Week, and a Bad Trend for Miguel Amaya and the Cubs

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The Chicago Cubs lost another game on Saturday--something we’ve become rather accustomed to, in a nightmarish month of May. However, one element of this one stood out as being particularly difficult to stomach.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

With two outs in the eighth inning, the Cubs held a 4-3 lead. St. Louis had runners on first and second. A Matt Carpenter single scored Alec Burleson from second--but that probably should not have happened, if it were not for the continued shortcomings of Cubs backstop Miguel Amaya manifesting in a crucial moment.

Seiya Suzuki fielded the ball in right and made a perfectly adequate throw home. It wasn’t a great throw, really, but it should have done the job. After all, Amaya fielded the ball here: 

Now, these screenshots can be misleading. It doesn't just matter where each player is; it matters how fast they're moving. Because the throw took him to the first-base side of the plate, Amaya had to corral the ball, turn, and lunge, and there's no way to accelerate to match the speed of a diving runner in that situation. Still, a lot of catchers make the tag at the front corner of the plate here. Amaya, however, did not:

In fact, although Craig Counsell did challenge the play based on the importance of the situation, Amaya clearly missed Alec Burleson at that front corner and got him only deeper in the slide, too late. He whiffed. The Cardinals would go on to add three more in the inning.

If not for the broader context of the Cubs’ catching duo this season, this wouldn't feel as important and inauspicious as it does. After all, Amaya made great tags to seal wins on dramatic throws last July in Milwaukee, and last month in New York. But defensive miscues in matters of baserunners are an alarming element of what Amaya brings to the table, and that's starting to overshadow his scattered moments of heroism, while magnifying all his other weaknesses and missed chances.

The Cardinals scored their first two runs in the third inning on Saturday, on a Paul Goldschmidt single with two outs. St. Louis had runners on second and third at the time. Lars Nootbaar stood on second, courtesy of an uncontested steal. It was one of two uncontested steals Amaya surrendered on the night, with Nolan Gorman adding one in the sixth. Amaya's inability to control the running game cost the team at least one run. The Cubs lost by one.

The St. Louis Cardinals are not an aggressive running team. They ranked 26th in the league in steals coming into Saturday. So, for Amaya to allow a pair in an uncontested fashion – even if only one would go on to score – is a fairly egregious occurrence. But it's also one we have, unfortunately, become quite familiar with.

In 577 innings behind the dish in his young career, Amaya has allowed 60 steals on 67 attempts, including 29 in 33 tries in 2024. Free bases cannot happen for a team that lives on the margins in the way the Cubs do. But not only are they happening, they’re happening at an astounding rate. 

Baseball Prospectus’s Throwing Runs (ThrR) metric essentially tracks catcher throwing in a run-based measurement. There are 77 catchers who have caught at least one game this year. Amaya’s ThrR (-0.4) ranks 76th, ahead of only Omar Narváez. His Swipe Rate Above Average (SRAA), at 0.027, is also ahead of only Narváez. As much improvement as we’ve seen from Amaya in the cumulative sense, the inability to control the running game remains a rather glaring component.

To date, though, we haven’t seen consistency in the way the opposition attacks such a shortcoming, even if we’ve seen it in some spots (early this month against Milwaukee, most notably). That could change in the coming weeks, though.

We recently talked about the Cubs’ upcoming schedule. That includes Milwaukee for seven, Cincinnati for six, and Tampa Bay for three across the next month. All three teams rank in the top five in the league in stolen bases. So while we haven’t seen it yet, in the consistent sense, it’s possible the real hammer is yet to fall on Amaya.

No two tag plays are the same. Amaya failed to execute on a crucial one Saturday, but you can live with that. Teams racing around the bases as soon as they reach first is a different story, though, and it’s not one that ends well for the Cubs.

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[Guest234]

The Cubs had a DH they declined to sign and a catcher they declined to sign - see the trend?

[JHBulls]

At this stage I would want a PH’er up for Amaya with RISP. fewer than 2 outs, even if it’s the 1st inning. That’s how little confidence I have in him at his stage, 

[Billy62]

I think the bigger issue here and not saying that missing tag plays is not an issue, is the fact that this team seems to surrender too many late inning leads out of the bullpen. This was an issue last season, and we were assured by management that it had been addressed this season. It apparently has not, and the added issue of not hitting or advancing runners has become even more problematic.