Cubs' Schedule Takes a Dramatic and Important Turn This Week

As of this writing, the Cubs have only played 10 of their 51 games against their rivals from the National League Central. None of those were in April. May has seen three against Milwaukee and seven against Pittsburgh. They’re an even 5-5 in those games, with two wins against the Brewers and three scattered across their two series against the Bucs. Starting Friday, however, we’ll see a massive bump in their time spent with division rivals. 

The Cubs will head to St. Louis for three with the Cardinals this weekend. They’ll then move up to Milwaukee for four next week. Returning home, they’ll face the Cincinnati Reds for three. After a brief intermission against the White Sox, they’ll then head to Cincinnati for another four. There’s another three in there against each of St. Louis & Milwaukee before June meets its end. 

That’s 20 division games of the team’s next 36 tilts, including 14 of 16 early on in the next stretch. 

One likes to imagine such a schedule would be favorable for the Cubs, who have been a clear division frontrunner from the jump. Neither of the Cardinals and Reds have gained traction at any point. The Pirates started their swoon-after-good-start much earlier this year than last. And there’s no way the Brewers can sustain their shocking start. At least, that was the April mindset. 

Now, though, we’re not so sure. The Cubs are finishing up a May in which they’re 25th in team wRC+ (89), striking out at the sixth-highest rate in baseball (24.0%), and offering very little impact offense (.137 May ISO ranks 20th) or contact (35.2 HardHit% is 26th). They’ve become more active on the bases – 20 steals, perhaps out of necessity – but can’t capitalize on a third-ranked walk rate (9.9%) with any sustained on-base presence (.301 OBP). 

The pitching has remained… fine. They have a 3.30 staff ERA (9th), the third-best K% (24.7), and a top 10 GB% (43.8). Starters are top 6-7 pretty much across the board, and the bullpen has stabilized, thanks to better health of the staff at large. Despite very little offensive support, they’ve maintained what has been a strong start to the year. 

That, at least, makes this next stretch a promising one. The Reds remain one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Their 67 wRC+ in May is dead last. Both they and the Brewers are in the 10 highest strikeout rates this month, with the Cardinals also in the top half. While the latter two teams can take a walk (8.8 and 9.0 BB%, respectively), the Cubs’ command of the zone should force them into contact. Lest we be worried about surrendering hard contact, the Brewers have spent May sitting 14th (39.9%) in HardHit%. That’s the best of the trio, with the Cardinals 23rd (36.0) & Reds 30th (32.8). Only Milwaukee is in the top half in ISO (.169). 

Also lending itself to at least some form of optimism is the fact that the Cubs aren’t going to run into nearly the type of pitching they have in recent weeks. None of those three teams have a Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, Chris Sale, or Max Fried. In fact, all three teams rank in the bottom half of the league in starting pitcher ERA, with Milwaukee and Cincinnati both sitting in the top half in BB% (in the bad way). St. Louis’s strikeout rate (20.6%) leads the way at 15th, with the 23rd-ranked Reds (18.5) and 24th-ranked Brewers (18.4) much lower. Cincinnati is also the only staff of the three that offers actual velocity (95.2 MPH average on four-seam), though with some command issues. 

It’d be nice to think that the next stretch offers the Cubs’ hitters, in particular, a window to get back on track. They’ll still face some quality arms, to be sure. But they appear to be clear of those that have given them so much trouble in recent weeks. This is an opportunity to re-establish the approach and get some of these bats moving, whether they’ve been injured or struggling from a pure performance standpoint.

Regardless of that element, it’s hard to envision this as anything other than a crucial stretch for the Chicago Cubs. From July onward, the Cubs will only have 22 games remaining against division foes, with the next stretch accounting for almost half. If the team is serious about a division title, this is probably the stretch in which they need to prove it.