Shota Imanaga early Cy Young award favorite, too soon?

[spaincubsfan]

What thinks ye NSBB?

 

[Rex Buckingham]

It's obviously way early, but I don't know why we wouldn't expect him to keep having success (though obviously not at this level). His early season numbers count the same as those he will have in the last 2 months, and he's already banked some really awesome performances

[We Got The Whole 9]

He's got some competition for sure. Sale looks vintage (2 ER 43:2 KBB in last 5 starts), Wheeler and Suarez are absolutely dominating, and Glasnow is on a near-300 K pace. It's gonna be a really good race.

 

 

[BKHoo]

If the season was stopped today he has a great case! 

[Jason Ross]

As of today, I'd say he'd win it, maybe not going away, but by enough that it wasn't super in doubt. He's tied in fWAR with Sale, but has a clear advantage on ERA, and you know there's always going to be a population of voters who are going to default to the guy with the >1 ERA. 

In the end, I can't imagine he's going to keep that ERA up. His HR/FB% is immaculate right now and that's never going to keep that low considering his FB nature and the nature of Wrigley. 

I wouldn't handicap him as the favorite because I think guys like Sale and Wheeler have name recognition and are on pace to strike out more. Regardless, how cool is it that Shota is even in this stratosphere right now?

[spaincubsfan]

59 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

As of today, I'd say he'd win it, maybe not going away, but by enough that it wasn't super in doubt. He's tied in fWAR with Sale, but has a clear advantage on ERA, and you know there's always going to be a population of voters who are going to default to the guy with the >1 ERA. 

In the end, I can't imagine he's going to keep that ERA up. His HR/FB% is immaculate right now and that's never going to keep that low considering his FB nature and the nature of Wrigley. 

I wouldn't handicap him as the favorite because I think guys like Sale and Wheeler have name recognition and are on pace to strike out more. Regardless, how cool is it that Shota is even in this stratosphere right now?

Interesting take because the Fangraphs ZIPS & ZIPS DC forecasts aren't kind to him for the remainder of the season:

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, spaincubsfan said:

Interesting take because the Fangraphs ZIPS & ZIPS DC forecasts aren't kind to him for the remainder of the season:

 

I think that's just the regressed nature of projections, his Zips RoS is 6th in the NL in fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=rzips&team=&lg=nl

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, spaincubsfan said:

Interesting take because the Fangraphs ZIPS & ZIPS DC forecasts aren't kind to him for the remainder of the season:

 

Projection systems work based on input data. Right now, the only real input data we have on Shota Imanaga is the 52.3 IP he has in 2024. So it shouldn't be shocking that the projections are going to take the input and then output something very similar. Check out Yamamoto's projections and they're pretty similar, too. Same issue.

I think logically, we know that Shota Imanaga is likely not going to limit HR's to a >5% rate. One pitcher in baseball kept his HR% near 5%, and that was Sonny Gray at 5.2%. Nine kept it under 10%. So we can probably expect some serious regression there. That's fine! He's a FB guy, it's going to happen. 

None of that is shitting on Shota. Listen, if you told me at the start of the season he was going to be a top-10 pitcher in the NL we'd have all been beside ourselves and that's where he's tracking, even with HR rates that are likely to climb as the weather gets warmer. He's had an A+ season, and so far, looks nothing short of an A+ signing. I just think he's probably going to have a hard time winning a Cy Young unless he keeps a stupid low ERA.

[Bertz]

Shota has also yet to face any team for a second time yet.  He's great but as the league gets more familiar and as the weather warms up I expect him to settle in as more of a #2 starter.