Minor League Recap: Another Week, Another Strong Showing for Cubs Prospects

[Jason Ross]

A big week for the Cubs in the minor leagues was highlighted by the much-anticipated callup of star prospect Cade Horton, to Triple-A Iowa. How was the rest of the week for the farm system?

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Iowa Cubs (1-5)
Rough week for the Iowa Cubs, as they were on the road facing the first-place Omaha Storm Chasers. The series loss dropped the team below the .500 mark on the season. Next up: a home series against bottom-feeding Columbus to (hopefully) reset the team.

RF, Owen Caissie: 159 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 27.3 BB%, 1 HR: No matter what the Iowa Cubs record is, the Canadian right fielder is finding his groove at Triple-A. Homering off a lefty this week for his second long fly of the season, Caissie also managed to walk more than he struck out. I keep thinking he's going to hit a rough patch, but he's looking more and more ready for the next level. 

SP. Cade Horton: 4 IP, 6 K, 4 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: A weird start for Horton in many ways. First, the velocity was way down from where we saw it in Double-A. Secondly, the walks were entirely uncharacteristic. The good news is that, when pressured, he ran the strikeout play. There's also some interesting data showing poor IVB and extension on the fastball. Overall, I have to wonder if the Cubs have asked Horton to work on something specific, or to almost go 80% tilt instead of full-send. Keegan Thompson saw a decline in fastball velocity before coming up to Chicago and Justin Steele did the same on his rehab start. Just things to keep an eye on. 

P, Sam McWilliams: 4.1 IP, 7 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The 28-year-old righthander is a pitcher to whom the Cubs may turn at some point, to solve some of their bullpen woes. He's been especially effective in shorter stints, showing off much-improved stuff compared to when he was last in professional baseball. He did get knocked around a bit in his last outing, but I think he's been interesting enough that if the Cubs decide they want to add him to the 40-man at some point, it'd be a worthwhile experiment, given the issues they've had.

OF, Brennen Davis: -16 wRC+, 15 K%, 15 BB%: Davis got off to a promising start, homering on a pitch he smoked at 113 mph off the bat. Since then, it's been downhill for the former top prospect, as he managed just a single hit over the last week. Hopefully, he can get his feet under him, as the walk rate looks solid, but he's just not doing much with the rest of his game. 

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Tennessee Smokies (4-2)
The loss of their best pitcher, Cade Horton, to promotion did not stop down the Tennessee Smokies, as they took four of six against the Biloxi Shuckers. The Smokies continue their climb toward the top of the Southern standings as the cellar dwellers, the Chattanooga Lookouts come to town this week.

SP, Kyle Hendricks: 5 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: A promising rehab start for the Professor in Tennessee was punctuated by seven strikeouts and no walks. The command looked improved, and he looked sharper than he has so far in the majors, the major caveat being that this is Double-A and looks can be deceiving. The hope is that a short IL stint and rehab has gotten Hendricks on the straight and narrow again. Next up is a second rehab start in Iowa this week before he likely rejoins the team.

C, Moises Ballesteros: 254 wRC+, 14.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 3 2bs: His season line is now over a 200 wRC+. That means Big Mo has been 100% better than the average Double-A hitter...as a 20 year old. I keep thinking he can't keep this up, and then he hits .500 over a full week of games. There may not be a prospect in all of baseball, at any level, off to a more impressive start to 2024 when we add in context.

1b, Haydn McGeary: 169 wRC+, 35.3 K%, 11.8 BB%: A better week for the big first baseman who's been off to a horrible start to the 2024 season. The power is still nonexistent and he's hitting far too many baseballs on the ground (if he's hitting them at all), but this is at least encouraging. It was expected that McGeary would make quick work of Double-A this year after tuning up the level last year with a 122 wRC+, but it has not gone according to plan. Maybe this gets him going? 

RP, Zac Leigh: 4 IP, 5 K, 2 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: The right-handed reliever is off to a great start in Tennessee and could see a bump to Iowa. While he's among the older prospects, at age 26 and still in Double-A, there remains a viable MLB reliever's profile here. On a team who's had as many issues in the bullpen this year, it's enough to give Leigh just enough light at the end of the tunnel that he could find his was to Chicago this summer.

3b. Matt Shaw: 81 wR+C, 16,7 K%, 20.8 BB%: The last few weeks haven't been the best for the first round pick, but there have been some encouraging signs that he might be coming out of this soon as Shaw is starting to walk a lot and we can see players progress from strike-zone-command to damage quickly (I.E. Christopher Morel over the last week+). Concerning however...Shaw only has one double on the year. 

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South Bend Cubs (4-2) 
South Bend finally had a nice week as they took four games against the Lansing Lugnuts climbing out of last place in the Midwest League Western division. South Bend can continue to climb the divisional ladder as Cedar Rapids visits South Bend for a six game tilt this week.

SP, Brady McCullough: 4 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The right hander has had a pretty solid season so far in South Bend, dropping his ERA to under 2.00 and he's yet to surrender a home run. I'd like to see some more strikeouts, but he's probably on the radar for a mid-season bump to Tennessee at any time.

SP, Will Sanders: 3.2 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: A second good start for Sanders in a row as he continues to ramp up in pitch count and length. We're finally starting to see the advanced arm begin to flash reasons why the Cubs took him in the '24 draft. Like McCullough, he too could make his way to Tennessee mid-season.

2b, Pedro Ramirez: 243 wRC+, 3.6 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1 2b, 2 HR: A huge week for the infielder and we really could be on the border of a major breakout for the 20 year old. Now up to a 150 wRC+ on the year, the last hurdle to clear is to show some added power, which he did this week. Pedro has been a bright spot on a weak South Bend team all year.

OF, Brett Bateman: 229 wRC+, 8.3 K%, 20.8 BB%, 2 2b: I need to see more power before I officially jump on the Bateman hype train, but he's absolutely making short work of South Bend. The reality of senior-signs in the first-10 rounds is that many of them are penny-pinchers so getting any production is good. Bateman probably joins Tennessee at some point this season and I'm going to be curious if his lack of power will hold him back or a strong hit-tool will allow him to be a high average OF'er in a Steven Kwan mold.

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Myrtle Beach Pelicans (3-3)
The Pelicans were able to salvage a split series this week against Lynchburg after they dropped three straight midweek. A second straight road series against the 12-15 Salem Red Sox is on tap this weekend as the Pelicans look to right the ship

SS, Cristian Hernandez: 167 wRC+, 30.4 K%, 8.7 BB%: Hernandez continues to hit well in Myrtle this season there's little denying it. We're not on full on breakout yet considering his repeater nature, but the longer this goes the more confidence I have that we're on that path.

OF, Alfonsin Rosario: 26 wRC+, 45 K%, 5 BB%, 1 2b: The reality with Rosario is that despite being a bit older at 19, he remains very raw. The power is clearly there, with four of his eight hits being for extra bases. With that said, there's clearly a learning curve in terms of contact rate, as Rosario remains a major strikeout threat every time he walks into the box. It's likely going to be an up and down ride for Rosario but the hope is that the power can eventually outweigh the strikeouts and there's plenty of time for that to occur. Just be patient.

SP, Juan Bello: 3 IP, 3 K, 4 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: A not-so-great start for the breakout pitcher, as Bello struggled with control. Bello's been one of the more fun follows in Low-A this year, so despite the rough outing, I'm not out on him. He even showed off some Nester-Cortes-esque leg movement pre-pitch a few times. Regardless of the walks, Bello is a fun follow right now.

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[Jason Ross]

11 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Bateman wasn’t a senior sign, but agreed it’s hard to get too up without some HR power. I’m still at OF Nick Lopez

I noticed Ethan Hearn’s week, believed in himself for 9 PAs: 0 Ks, a BB, a HR, 3 Hs, 3 Rs…More of that or similar from him, please! 

You'll have to forgive me on that oversight. Been traveling and haven't had as much time. Went on memory and could have sworn he was a senior sign because he was underslot. Regardless, 8th round selections are usually penny-pinchers when it comes to slot, so general point remains that these are prospects you normally expect less from. 

Senior, junior, whatever....Bateman has hit well and that's a good thing. Anything they get out of him prospect wise is a win.