Article: Positive Vibes Prevail on Cubs Farm, Despite Losses

[Jason Ross]

It's always good to win games at the minor-league level, but the real thing is player development. In a perfect world, player development would lead directly to wins, but sometimes, it doesn't. This week is a perfect example of losses piling up but a lot of really good performances down on the farm. Who had a good week?

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Iowa Cubs (2-4)
The Iowa Cubs are a shell of what they were on Opening Day. With Ben Brown, Alexander Canario, Hayden Wesneski, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Mervis all on the Chicago Cubs instead, the team is missing much of their firepower. After dropping four of six to Buffalo, Iowa heads home this week to face the Omaha Storm Chasers, looking to right the ship.

🔥Jake Slaughter, 3b: 181 wRC+. 17.4 K%, 17.4 BB%, 1 2B, 2 HR: Good week for the former LSU Tiger. Slaughter had some helium going into last year, but he struggled in Iowa. While I still wonder if he's got legitimate MLB upside, the number of injuries the Cubs have had this year should remind us we're one or two more away from seeing most of the Iowa roster right now. Slaughter has some versatility, so if he can get his bat hot, this might be his best chance to make a big-league impression.

🔥Luis Vazquez, SS: 124 wRC+, 33.3 K%, 4.8 BB%,, 3 2B: The shortstop continues to hit this season, with this week pushing his season wRC+ over 140. He does sport a .426 BABIP, but that's not always a bad thing at the minor-league level; sometimes it just suggests someone is ready for a new challenge. In another organization, Vázquez would have likely seen his shot come already, but much like Slaughter, we're probably one injury (depending on the position) away from that happening. 

🔥Owen Caissie, OF: 177 wRC+, 37.5 K%, 25 BB%, 1 2B: Caissie is doing just about everything short of hitting home runs right now, but I think that's coming. The strikeout rate was a little elevated this week, but he's doing everything else well. Pitchers are finally throwing strikes to Caissie in the middle of the zone, and I expect the power surge will come with that. Keep an eye out: I think we're like a week or two away from a handful of home runs coming.

🤷‍♂️Brennen Davis, OF: 123 wRC+. 31.8 K%, 22.7 BB%, 1 HR: The strikeouts are always concerning, but it's good just to see the outfielder playing right now. He's had such a bad beat when it comes to injuries. The good news is that the power seems to be there; the exit velocity on his homer was 113 MPH, which is up 4 MPH than his max in 2022. There's still a decent chance he can be something.

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Tennessee Smokies (3-3)
Not the greatest week for Tennessee, but a much better one, too, as the Smokies split a six-game set. Most games were close, and the best news was that a few of their struggling players had nice rebounds. Tennessee is back in action at home this week against the Biloxi Shuckers. 

🔥Cade Horton, SP: 5 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: I'm pretty confident this will be Horton's last start in Tennessee, and it was another dominant effort. On the season, he's striking out a hitter per inning, walking next to no one, and has given up just two runs in 16 innings. More importantly, Horton made it through five frames and threw 72 pitches. I've always had June 1 as a major checkpoint for Horton, but the progress he's made with the changeup (coupled with the injury situation) has me wondering if that will turn into May 1. This guy is probably ready today.

🔥Moises Ballesteros, C/DH: 243 wRC+, 20 K%, 15 BB%, 1 2B, 1 HR: I've done a poor job of listing Big Mo' on the hot-or-not lists this year. All he's done is rake. He's walking more and he's striking out less; he's hit three home runs. He's doing everything you can ask. He's not even 21. We give a lot of credit and hype to what Jefferson Rojas is doing (and he's deserving of that hype), but Ballesteros is just crushing baseballs. What a find he's been.

🔥Brandon Birdsell: 5 IP, 7K, 2 BB, 0R, 0ER: Much better, and perfect timing. With the depth issues that Iowa is having, seeing Birdsell (an advanced arm who's pitched in the Big 12) find some success in Tennessee is a good thing. If he can get on a mini-roll, he could quickly make his way up to Iowa.

🔥Kevin Alcantara, OF: 157 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 0 BB%, 1 2B, 2 HR: Remember when Alcántara didn't have a single hit on the year? All of a sudden, he's sporting a 111 wRC+, has seen his strikeout rate drop to 26%, and has four home runs. There are still some places to work on the Jaguar, like coaxing a few extra walks, but overall, it's been a great return to form over the last 10 days. 

🥶Matt Shaw, 3b: -3 wRC+, 28 K%, 8 BB%: It's never good to see someone struggle, but Shaw getting his first test of resiliency is probably a good thing for his development. Having him work through a few bad weeks and seeing how he adjusts to the league adjusting to him will let us know a lot about who he is as a prospect. 

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South Bend Cubs (2-4)
South Bend was always going to have some hurdles to clear to start the season, and the year has kind of gone to script. They've yet to win a series. South Bend will look to turn things around this week on the road against the Lansing Lugnuts. 

🔥Will Sanders, SP: 3IP, 6K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Sanders was seen as a more advanced prospect than this assignment suggested, due to pitching in the SEC, so seeing him throw well this week was a good thing. Sanders has really struggled, so it's awesome to see this kind of game for him. He could be in line to be promoted to Tennessee mid-season, and with Horton and Birdsell hopefully moving to Iowa, he would find open rotation spots. This is a good first step.

🔥Jefferson Rojas, SS: 113 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 13.6 BB%: This feels like a pretty ho-hum week, until you once again remind yourself: he turned 19 this week and is in High-A. Given that, I'd be remiss if I didn't continue to copy and paste his name into this section. Rojas has a wRC+ nearly 30% better than league average on the season, You should be pretty darn excited.

🔥Ed Howard, SS: 118 wRC+, 10 K%, 10 BB%, 3 2B: I thought we might be getting to the end of the line for the former first-round pick, but Howard strung together a strong week. He still sports a paltry 49 wRC+ on the season, but this week was a sign that maybe we can't entirely give up on him yet. None of this is to say ignore the rest of the season so far, but maybe Howard has enough left in the tank that he can become somewhat interesting again by season's end. At the very least, I owed it to Howard to highlight the best week he's had offensively in quite some time. 

🤷‍♂️Drew Gray: 3.1 IP, 6 K, 3 BB, 1 R, 0 ER: Drew Gray is having such an uneven season. On one hand: Gray sports a strikeout rate over 37% and has a 1.59 ERA. That's an awesome line for the lefthander--that is, until you notice the 26.4 BB%. That's 14 walks in just over 11 innings pitched. Gray simply cannot walk that many. It's early, and clearly, the stuff is there when the strikes come, so don't abandon ship or anything. 

🥶Luis Devers: 2;.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 9 R, 9 ER: Yeah, that's not good. The 2022 MiLB Pitcher of the Year has struggled to recapture his form and consistency since an injury in 2023. Devers has had a few good outings, but this one was not it. Hopefully, he continues to rehab his way back into the pitcher he looked like he could be before.

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Myrtle Beach Pelicans (3-3)
A three-win week is the best outcome the Pelicans have had all season, even if it is baby steps. The Pelicans will hope to win their first series this week, as they travel to Salem. 

🔥Christopher Paciolla, 3b: 165 wRC+, 37 K%, 0 BB%, 2 2B, 1 HR: The 2022 mid-rounder is finally starting to show why the Cubs liked him coming out of high school. Yes, the strikeout-to-walk ratio is imperfect right now, but I'm willing to ignore that as he's worked his season wRC+ to over 110. Paciolla remains young and has upside. He could become a breakout type this season.

🔥Juan Bello, SP: 4 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: The walk rate on the season remains inflated, so seeing Bello control the strike zone a bit better this week was great. Still, the 20-year-old is looking like a name to monitor. A strikeout rate of 33.9% will certainly play, and he's getting 57% ground balls, as well. 

🔥Cristian Hernandez, SS: 181 wRC+, 30.8 K%, 11.5 BB%, 4 2B, 1 HR: The power was the only thing missing from Hernández's encouraging start, and he flashed a ton of it this week. He's done everything right: reworked his entire swing, is making much more contact, controlling the barrel through the zone more. He's probably ticketed to South Bend shortly, as he's nearing a 150 wRC+ on the season. He needs to sustain the improvement at High-A, but this is a very promising start for a prospect whose arrow had been pointing in the wrong direction entering the year 

🤷‍♂️Alfonsin Roasario, OF: 109 wRC+, 50 K%, 0 BB%, 2 HR: I'm not going to be too harsh on the kid in his first few games. The strikeouts were rough, and he's likely going to have to work through that much of the year. The good news is that the power absolutely plays, as he smashed two no-doubt bombs on the week. He has all of the physical tools to be something, so while he's quite boom-or-bust, there's a lot of fun in his profile if he can put most of the tools together. 

🥶Drew Bowser, 1b: 107 wRC+, 50 K%, 14.3 BB%, 1 HR: I'll be a bit harsher on Bowser, though. The wRC+, like Rosario, is buoyed by the lone home run (his first as a professional! Congrats, kid!), but it's not Bowser's first week, and Bowser played ACC baseball last year. Myrtle Beach is a tough place to hit, but the 20th-rounder continues striking out in two out of every five plate appearances on the season. All is not lost, so hopefully, he can settle in a bit more as we go on and that home run helps him turn a corner.

 

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[We Got The Whole 9]

A few things;

 

1. I was thinking Vazquez might deserve a look so they can IL Morel. If Morel has all of these maladies, he's probably not going to bounce back without real rest. He is a better hitter than his line suggests IMO but his line is awful right now. However I realized Vazquez has been a dead-pull groundball hitter. I think he needs to get that flyball rate up before the Cubs give him a shot. MLB will most likely eat him up. Slaughter OTOH appears to be distributing his BIP much more evenly and holds just a 33% GB rate so far. I think a call-up should be in consideration. 

2. Did you notice a change in how Shaw was pitched this week? It feels like his wheelhouse is the outer 3rd as he loves to let a pitch get deep and crank it oppo. Was he getting a ton of inside pitches?

3. Triantos had quite a week, hitting 350 with a 440 ISO and just 1 K. Not gonna knock him for not walking when you mash like that.

4. Mo is a beast. Just 50 PA so far, but I say goddamn.

Edited April 29, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

A few things;

 

1. I was thinking Vazquez might deserve a look so they can IL Morel. If Morel has all of these maladies, he's probably not going to bounce back without real rest. He is a better hitter than his line suggests IMO but his line is awful right now. However I realized Vazquez has been a dead-pull groundball hitter. I think he needs to get that flyball rate up before the Cubs give him a shot. MLB will most likely eat him up. Slaughter OTOH appears to be distributing his BIP much more evenly and holds just a 33% GB rate so far. I think a call-up should be in consideration. 

2. Did you notice a change in how Shaw was pitched this week? It feels like his wheelhouse is the outer 3rd as he loves to let a pitch get deep and crank it oppo. Was he getting a ton of inside pitches?

3. Triantos had quite a week, hitting 350 with a 440 ISO and just 1 K. Not gonna knock him for not walking when you mash like that.

4. Mo is a beast. Just 50 PA so far, but I say goddamn.

In all transparency: with school still rocking and the Cubs being good, it's been hard to catch as many MiLB games right now, as I have in the past. I'll be able to give it more time in about 30 days. The bit I did see didn't appear different to my eye, but it's kind of hard to tell on the iPhone4 level of definition and crummy angles. I'd default to statcast data...but nothing yet at the Double-A has been made publicly available. 

Triantos did have a great week! I try to limit these to around 4-5 per level for brevity's sake, so sometimes guys just are left off. He's been really good this year, deserves the praise.