Article: The Ongoing Evolution of Ian Happ

[RandallPnkFloyd]

How is a switch-hitting left fielder like a two-time Oscar winner?

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

There’s an episode of The Office where various members of the office staff discuss whether Hilary Swank is hot or not. The discussion spirals into a debate which results in a seemingly endless stalemate. This is where I find myself with Ian Happ, with whom I have a complicated relationship. Is he good? Is he not? Is his historically uneven bat the right one to lead the Cubs’ lineup in 2024?

Despite being entrenched as the team’s leadoff man (against righty starters) for 2024, Happ doesn’t have the full skill set you’d expect to see from the prototypical player in that role. (There’s also the separate matter of his defense, which is probably not what it’s purported to be, despite a pair of Gold Glove awards that might attempt to say otherwise.) My assumption is that such a perspective isn’t a unique quality among those who follow the Chicago Cubs. The thinking itself – as to whether a player is “good” or “bad” – is black-and-white and, probably, asking the wrong question, in this case. Any level of dismissiveness about Happ undersells what the player has become and the intricacies of his evolution.

This is what MLB Pipeline had to say about Happ when he graduated from the Cubs’ system back in 2017: 

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Happ demonstrates balance and bat speed from both sides, though he has been more productive as a left-handed hitter in pro ball. With his deceptive strength, solid speed and baserunning instincts, he has 20-20 upside. He has good plate discipline as well, though he'll have to tighten his strike zone after expanding it once he got to Double-A.

That initial scouting report has proven itself to be varying shades of true over the course of Happ’s career. He’s hit 20 homers in three separate seasons, with 104 of his 124 total dingers coming as a lefty. While he hasn’t been a detriment to the Cubs on the basepaths, he also hasn’t reached anywhere near the 20-20 threshold. The closest he got was last year, when he went 21-14.

What’s probably most notable is the variance we’ve seen from Happ in the roughly eight years we’ve watched him. He’s had those years of 20+ home runs. He’s also had seasons where he barely scratched 15. The power, by ISO, has also shrunk a bit, in a more gradual way. Happ has had walk rates touching 15 percent, but also below 10. He’s struck out at a rate over 30 percent on multiple occasions. There’s a lot at play that has both fed into the extremely volatile perception that the collective has of him, as well as his suitability for the leadoff role in which he now finds himself.

In terms of the approach, early Ian Happ saw 4.09 pitches per plate appearance. From 2021 to 2023, he went 4.19, 4.00, and 4.15 in the P/PA game. Happ was initially more prone to swinging outside the strike zone, posting an O-Swing% over 30% in two of his first three years. Those coincided with far higher whiff rates than we’ve come to expect from the more modern Happ vintage. He averaged a Whiff% of 15.5% in those early years.

This year, Happ has composed himself into a fixture of plate discipline. His P/PA is at 4.68. Only Colorado’s Nolan Jones is seeing more pitches, at 4.72. That’s fed directly into the lowest whiff rate of his career – a meager 10 percent in the early going – and the highest contact rate, at 78.1%. He’s also making hard contact at his highest rate since 2018 (36.2%, using FanGraphs's splits). From a discipline standpoint, Ian Happ is a logical fit atop the lineup, especially given the growth he's demonstrated. Would it be an oversimplification, though, to declare that he just refined his approach in order to fit the bill? Maybe. Pitchers have generally approached Happ the exact same way throughout his career. His Zone% has remained relatively constant, with only mild (and normal) fluctuation in the pitch type he’s seen. 

One trend that does exist within his approach, though, is his more recent avoidance of the offspeed pitch.

Offspeed has represented an area of struggle for Happ throughout his career. It’s represented – by far – his lowest HardHit% output in every year at which he’s been a major-league hitter, while more occasionally serving as the pitch he whiffs at most. This year, however, he’s cut down his Swing% against offspeed pitches to just 39.5%. That would be his lowest total by a wide margin if it’s sustained. His ability to recognize and lay off that pitch certainly speaks to the significant growth we’ve seen in his overall plate discipline thus far. It’s a development not entirely dissimilar to Dansby Swanson, though for Happ, it’s more about pitch type avoidance rather than needing to hone in on one specific pitch.

The “prototypical” leadoff man has become something of a rare breed at this level to begin with. Gone are the days of contact-oriented hitters who can get on and steal a bunch of bases. They still exist, but usually more as one-tool-or-the-other. Instead, you’re just looking for that consistent on-base presence that the other guys can drive in. Ian Happ has evolved into exactly that type of player.

Again, the question of whether Happ is a strong, consistent bat probably isn’t the right question--especially within the context of him in the leadoff spot. The actual issue is just how his evolution led him to being in that position in the first place. A potential 20-20 guy with a high strikeout rate early on has instead become one of the most patient hitters in all of baseball, demonstrating recognition on specific types of pitches. The absence of power thus far (.130 ISO, even after his drought-busting first homer Tuesday night) is certainly worth pondering; in a general sense, though, the refinement evident in his approach makes him the ideal tone-setter for this group, especially given the early emphasis on quality plate appearances.

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[CubUgly]

I think we all know who Ian is by now.  A solid player MLB player, but will probably never be anything more than that.  And yes I agree on the defense, the Gold Gloves are more of a reflection of the relative talent at his position not necessarily defensive excellence.