Article: Chicago Cubs 2024 X-Factors: Miguel Amaya Taking Over For Yan Gomes

[Josh Illes]

This offseason has been filled with a lot of opinions and debates, right or wrong, on what should, could, or would change on the Cubs roster. Who could play third base? Who should play first base? Who would they sign? Who is the 5th starter? And so on, and so on. One thing that most people have been mostly silent on, though, is the catcher position.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

From day one of the offseason, the general consensus was that the Cubs would probably just run it back with the same duo that was behind the dish for most of the 2023 season: the proven veteran Yan Gomes, and the previously untested rookie Miguel Amaya. It makes total sense. They had a solid, if not spectacular, year. But if it wasn't spectacular, then why wouldn’t the club at least attempt to improve the situation? I think I know the answer to that, and it’s because they believe that Amaya passed those rookie tests with flying colors and is ready to take the next step to stardom.

Amaya is a former top prospect who has experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows throughout his career, since signing with the Cubs as a 16-year-old out of Panama in 2015. He played in the MLB Futures game in both 2018 and 2019. He was rising up prospect lists and riding high. Then came the bad. The lost 2020 season cut short his development. He had Tommy John surgery in 2022. As he was making his way back from that injury, he suffered a high ankle sprain and a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot later that same year. At that point, the player who was once tabbed the Cubs' catcher of the future was relegated to a bit of an afterthought, both in terms of perception and projection, as he tumbled down top prospect lists. 

It’s important to remember just how good Amaya was previous to those injuries, though. A November 2020 scouting report by Matt Thompson at Prospects Live gave him the following grades:

OFP	Role	Hit	Power	Field	Arm	Run
50	55	50	60	55	55	30

Offensively, that report and others have liked Amaya’s raw power and contact ability. His short bat path gives him the ability to wait on pitches, and while his leg kick is somewhat more constrained than it was when he was a teenager, he still uses it to provide timing and leverage. Defensively, he’s always been ahead of the learning curve by degrees, mostly because of his ability to get to know his pitchers' strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. Looking at that report from four years ago, it mentions that Amaya would have a unique handshake for every player on the roster. That tracks with what we learned last year, when we would hear pitchers on the Cubs staff rave about him. Even Kyle Hendricks, who calls his own game, was effusive in his praise for Amaya.

“He sees the hitters perfectly," Hendricks said. "He knows what they’re trying to do, whether they’re getting on the plate, getting off the plate, certain things like that. He just sees the game. He’s going to be great for a long time.”

Gomes, meanwhile, is an extremely talented veteran backstop. The Cubs are the fifth team for whom he has played, in a career entering Year 13. He won a World Series in 2019 with the Nationals. His presence allowed the Cubs to move on from Willson Contreras following the 2022 season without skipping much of a beat offensively, and perhaps improving defensively. The offense that Gomes provided last year was an unexpected bonus, but considering he turns 37 in July, I don’t believe that counting on him to keep providing clutch hits in the middle of the lineup is a recipe for long-term success. Luckily, they don’t have to. They can upgrade the position simply by adjusting their playing time, giving Amaya the playing time of a bona fide starter, while using Gomes as a true backup.

Looking at Baseball-Reference Marcel projections for 2024, they give Gomes the following line:

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

439

403

47

101

19

1

13

58

3

0

23

88

.251

.299

.400

.699

And here is what they project for Amaya:

278

242

34

59

11

1

9

34

4

1

24

64

.244

.335

.409

.744

To me, that line for Amaya reflects some of his positive hitting traits when it comes to OBP and SLG, but I would expect his strikeout rate to be much better than that projection. Nonetheless, it’s a fair snapshot of their current abilities. As such, let’s see what happens if we simply swap their playing time. What would it look like if Amaya got the 439 plate appearances?

It may look something like this:

439

395

56

97

18

2

15

56

7

1

39

104

.244

.335

.409

.744

Offensive projections for Amaya are likely to be at their lowest possible point, when you consider all the work he had to put in defensively upon being called up straight from Double-A in May of last season. Again, just based on anecdotal evidence from interviews with Cubs pitchers, we can tell that Amaya’s first priority was to embed himself into the pitching staff to do that part of his job at an exceptional level. After an offseason of preparation and a full spring training with the big-league club, it would seem probable that he should be able to focus more on his offense this year than last. So those baseline numbers are likely to be his floor. That’s not bad for a floor. Those are basically the same numbers that Contreras had last season. If he can improve upon them even a little bit, the Cubs will have themselves an answer at the catching position for a long time.

The 6’2”, 230-pound Amaya is what you would get if you built a catcher in a lab. He is a big, sturdy target whose main goal is to facilitate the pitching staff, but he can also wield the lumber at an above-average rate when it comes to both power and contact. The Cubs are a team in need of players to step up and become more than just replacement-level pieces. They need to figure out which positions on the field and in their lineup can generate above-average results. This season, I expect that to come from the catcher position in the form of Miguel Amaya.

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What are some of your X-factors? Do you think Amaya has what it takes to get to that next level? Let me know what you think.

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[Josh Illes]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

He came up yesterday and I’d agree has become kind of a forgotten man since injuries hit even off a smooth debut. Pre-pandemic he was one of the more legitimately exciting prospects in the org and, at least within the context of the position, the league at just 20. He coulda walked more and ideally K’d less in the MLs but otherwise had one of best offensive approaches on the team during the debut, ran the solid .330 xwOBA. If past the injuries he can be a excellent MLer, mostly I wonder what kind of defensive workload he can take on off the years of injuries. The bat won’t consistently play anywhere else. I mentally compare him to David Ross, combining some approach and power at the position with alot of dedication to and feel for the game in the clubhouse to last a long time 

H/t to the 2015 IFA class aka the secret start of Rebuild 2.0. At least 4 MLers (Paredes, Amaya, Marquez, and Morel), 2 #1 org prospects (Ademan, Marquez), multiple (Marquez, Amaya, Paredes) made the ancient and sacred order of Top 100, Futures Game appearances, and still many are in pro baseball from the MLs to Yonathan Peralza in the minors to a few catching on in other pro leagues like Faustino Carrera and Carlos Ocampo (a MiLB Rule 5 selection by the Mets too)

I still want to believe in Marquez. I also still want to believe in Josh Vitters though, so take that for what it's worth.

[Bertz]

When you're trying to peg a breakout, what you're really looking for are specific and realistic avenues to improve that combine with the skills a guy already has that can help him level up.  Chris Morel is a great example.  In 2022 his problems were lack of contact, hitting too many balls on the ground, and lack of defensive value despite his athleticism.  Last year he started lifting the ball a lot more without giving anything else back, and this year we're hoping he makes defensive strides while keeping his offense (at least) steady.

Amaya I think has an even easier path to being an impact player.  Based on what he showed last year, he looks to have all the components of an above average MLB hitter.  The plate discipline and contact are a smidge better than average, the raw power is average, the hard hit rate is a little low but he barrels the ball well because he hits so much in the air.  On defense he had strong framing grades, but he was a little noodle armed against opposing baserunners.  He got good reviews for his soft skills, though generally Ross only paired him with Hendricks or guys Miguel had already worked with in the minors.

So what are his avenues to a breakout?  One is for his component offensive skills, which are above average, to begin translating into above average production.  That's generally how it works, so likely the fact that it didn't last year is just a SSS thing (particularly when you look at what he did in the minors).  The second is to iron out the defense.  The arm was supposedly great when he was young, so you can realistically hope a year further out from TJ it can improve.  And the last one is to maintain his skills while piling up more playing time.  As I laid out above there's a lot to like about the skills he showed last year, but it can be tough to maintain those through the rigors of catching.  And that's not even mentioning Amaya's specific injury history.