Chicago Cubs 2024 X-Factors: Miguel Amaya Taking Over For Yan Gomes

From day one of the offseason, the general consensus was that the Cubs would probably just run it back with the same duo that was behind the dish for most of the 2023 season: the proven veteran Yan Gomes, and the previously untested rookie Miguel Amaya. It makes total sense. They had a solid, if not spectacular, year. But if it wasn't spectacular, then why wouldn’t the club at least attempt to improve the situation? I think I know the answer to that, and it’s because they believe that Amaya passed those rookie tests with flying colors and is ready to take the next step to stardom.

Amaya is a former top prospect who has experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows throughout his career, since signing with the Cubs as a 16-year-old out of Panama in 2015. He played in the MLB Futures game in both 2018 and 2019. He was rising up prospect lists and riding high. Then came the bad. The lost 2020 season cut short his development. He had Tommy John surgery in 2022. As he was making his way back from that injury, he suffered a high ankle sprain and a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot later that same year. At that point, the player who was once tabbed the Cubs' catcher of the future was relegated to a bit of an afterthought, both in terms of perception and projection, as he tumbled down top prospect lists. 

It’s important to remember just how good Amaya was previous to those injuries, though. A November 2020 scouting report by Matt Thompson at Prospects Live gave him the following grades:

Offensively, that report and others have liked Amaya’s raw power and contact ability. His short bat path gives him the ability to wait on pitches, and while his leg kick is somewhat more constrained than it was when he was a teenager, he still uses it to provide timing and leverage. Defensively, he’s always been ahead of the learning curve by degrees, mostly because of his ability to get to know his pitchers' strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. Looking at that report from four years ago, it mentions that Amaya would have a unique handshake for every player on the roster. That tracks with what we learned last year, when we would hear pitchers on the Cubs staff rave about him. Even Kyle Hendricks, who calls his own game, was effusive in his praise for Amaya.

“He sees the hitters perfectly," Hendricks said. "He knows what they’re trying to do, whether they’re getting on the plate, getting off the plate, certain things like that. He just sees the game. He’s going to be great for a long time.”

Gomes, meanwhile, is an extremely talented veteran backstop. The Cubs are the fifth team for whom he has played, in a career entering Year 13. He won a World Series in 2019 with the Nationals. His presence allowed the Cubs to move on from Willson Contreras following the 2022 season without skipping much of a beat offensively, and perhaps improving defensively. The offense that Gomes provided last year was an unexpected bonus, but considering he turns 37 in July, I don’t believe that counting on him to keep providing clutch hits in the middle of the lineup is a recipe for long-term success. Luckily, they don’t have to. They can upgrade the position simply by adjusting their playing time, giving Amaya the playing time of a bona fide starter, while using Gomes as a true backup.

Looking at Baseball-Reference Marcel projections for 2024, they give Gomes the following line:

And here is what they project for Amaya:

To me, that line for Amaya reflects some of his positive hitting traits when it comes to OBP and SLG, but I would expect his strikeout rate to be much better than that projection. Nonetheless, it’s a fair snapshot of their current abilities. As such, let’s see what happens if we simply swap their playing time. What would it look like if Amaya got the 439 plate appearances?

It may look something like this:

Offensive projections for Amaya are likely to be at their lowest possible point, when you consider all the work he had to put in defensively upon being called up straight from Double-A in May of last season. Again, just based on anecdotal evidence from interviews with Cubs pitchers, we can tell that Amaya’s first priority was to embed himself into the pitching staff to do that part of his job at an exceptional level. After an offseason of preparation and a full spring training with the big-league club, it would seem probable that he should be able to focus more on his offense this year than last. So those baseline numbers are likely to be his floor. That’s not bad for a floor. Those are basically the same numbers that Contreras had last season. If he can improve upon them even a little bit, the Cubs will have themselves an answer at the catching position for a long time.

The 6’2”, 230-pound Amaya is what you would get if you built a catcher in a lab. He is a big, sturdy target whose main goal is to facilitate the pitching staff, but he can also wield the lumber at an above-average rate when it comes to both power and contact. The Cubs are a team in need of players to step up and become more than just replacement-level pieces. They need to figure out which positions on the field and in their lineup can generate above-average results. This season, I expect that to come from the catcher position in the form of Miguel Amaya.

What are some of your X-factors? Do you think Amaya has what it takes to get to that next level? Let me know what you think.