Is Cody Back?

[Bull]

A lot of the projections have Bellinger regressing to about a 2.5 WAR. Much of the discussion has focused on a perceived overachievement when actual results were compared to the batted ball profile and higher-than-typical BABIP last year. 

I wanted to break down why Bellinger was so good last year as compared to 2020-2022 and assess if last year was flukey, a new normal, or a step towards his pre-injury days.

The first element to Cody's success last year was the shift ban. There were tons of articles last year on who would benefit the most from the shift ban BEFORE the season started, but surprisingly little reflection AFTER the season on who actually benefitted. Maybe some of you who pay for content on the analytical sites can dig up better info, but the most recent info I could find was a midseason article on MLB.com (I know, I know) 

It suggests that Bellinger was one of the top beneficiaries of extra hits due to the shift ban. This explains the increased BABIP and hedges against regression as the ban remains in place going forward.

The second element is the change in approach. He particularly changed his approach on 0-2 counts. His contact rate, in-zone contact rate, expected average, and expected slg. were significantly up, and his average exit velo in 0-2 counts was significantly down. He also went opposite field more than ever down 0-2, and 1-2. 

This accounts for most of his "lack of hard hit balls" His hard hit percentage on 0-2 was 14.3 well down from both prime Cody in 2019 (hereafter PC19) of 47.8% and from Crap Cody in 2021 (hereafter CC21) of 29.4%. But ahead in the count was a different story. Through 3-1 his HH% was PC19: 38.5, CC21 27.3 and NC23 (new cody): 38.9. Through 3-0, PC19: 55.6, CC21:33.3% and NC23:45.5%

It appears the lack of hard-hit percentage was when he was down in the count, which is something to love. Additionally, when up in the count his profile was more like Prime Cody, something we would love to see again. 

Then there's the injury. Most of the focus has been on the shoulder injury, but this guy https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger suggested before last season that there was a change in mechanics due to a leg injury that exactly coincides with Bellingers fall off the cliff. If the Cubs fixed those mechanics last year, could we see a continued resurgence?

Finally, the contract. Cody came back to the Cubs on a "prove it" deal. It seems he believes that he is destined for greater things this year. Of course, athletes have egos and I imagine former MVP's have among the biggest, but there may be something to the contract that suggests he thinks he's just going to get better. And it seems he is willing to keep getting better with the Cubs coaching staff.

I believe that Bellinger is something different than what he was either in 2019 or 2021. I think he is more Anthony Rizzo than peak Bellinger and less Jason Heyward than his nadir suggests. I think 2023 is a great indication for 2024, and the predictions of regression are unfounded.

[Bull]

I’m just gonna say it. This well thought out post got no responses, but “trade Bellinger” did? 

[CubinNY]

it was a fine post. The other one will be infamous. You don't want that. 

Edited March 4, 2024 by CubinNY

[Bertz]

I think ultimately the biggest thing question with Cody is how repeatable all the stuff he did last year is.  I feel like as data and analyses keep piling up, there's less and less thought that he was super lucky last year.  However, how repeatable is everything he did last year?  Last year Bellinger was:

- 87th percentile in strikeout rate (in the good direction)

- 84th percentile last year in hitting the ball in the air (fly balls + line drives)

-89th percentile in pulling those balls in the air

- 45th percentile in exit velocity on fly balls

So if he can hold onto his contact gains and the pull rate is a repeatable skill, he can hold onto most of his production from last year.  Probably settle in as an Ian Happ-ish caliber hitter?  If either/both of those changes are fleeting though he would need to get back to smoking the ball on a more regular basis.