Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs Top 20 Prospects Roundtable: #20-16

[Jason Ross]

As we enter the home stretch of the offseason, there's been a bit of a shakeup since we ranked the Cubs' top 20 prospects last. It's time to revisit the system as a whole, this time with a more personal spin. Our top two prospect gurus have ranked our personal top 20s. Where do we agree? Where do we differ?

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

With the last leg of the offseason wrapping up, and with publications like Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, ESPN and others releasing their top-100 lists for prospects throughout the league, I and @Josh Illes wanted to revisit the user-voted Top-20 list I explored in the early part of the winter. We then threw in our personal views. There are some similarities and some differences between ourselves, our users, and even where I felt these prospects were a few months ago. In the first installment of our four-part series, we're going to look at our honorable mentions, and then count down from 20 to 16. 

Jason's Honorable Mentions: Haydn McGeary, Porter Hodge, Josh Rivera, Cristian Hernandez, Pedro Ramirez
When you limit yourself to just 20 players, there are always a few you can’t add, and I probably could have listed 10 or more players here. I really like guys like McGeary, but being a first base/DH type, I just worry about his bat enough that he doesn’t make my top 20. Ramírez’s bat-to-ball skills are wonderful, but his size gives me some cause for concern. Rivera is a jack of all trades, but I wasn’t super high on him Draft day. Hopefully he will convince me. I had to add Hodge; the stuff is too good, and I’m a glutton for pain. [Ed. note: That sentence sounds like it could have been lifted verbatim from Jed Hoyer's text messages on the day of the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft this winter.] And lastly, while I don’t think he’s one of the 20 best today, the promise of Hernández remains dreamy enough that I can’t write him entirely off, either. 

Josh's Honorable Mentions: Fernando Cruz, Josh Rivera, Drew Gray, Michael Arias
I have a couple themes with my honorable mentions, and I think between the four of them I could strongly predict, just based on the law of averages, that two will be risers and two will be fallers at this time next year. One group is my “new-to-the-organization middle infielders”, Cruz and Rivera. Cruz is this year’s splashy, big-name international free agent signing out of the Dominican Republic. Meanwhile, Rivera was the Cubs third-round pick in last June’s draft out of the University of Florida. He's a polished college superstar who comes with a very high floor, whereas Cruz is a mostly unproven, 17-year-old, toolsy athlete with an incredibly high ceiling. This will be the first full year in the organization for each, so it will be an interesting season.

The next group, I will label “Starting pitchers who just missed.” Both Gray and Arias have high ceilings and (at this point) have shown themselves to be very capable at the lower levels of the minor leagues. This will be a big season for both of them, and honestly, they could both easily see themselves rise into the top 20 or even top 10 by this time next year.

For quick reference, our lists: 

Spoiler

Jason's #20-16
#20 - Luis Vazquez, SS
#19 - Drew Gray, SP
#18 - Michael Arias, SP/RP
#17 - Matt Mervis, 1b
#16 - Jaxson Wiggins, SP

Josh's #20-16
#20 - Christian Franklin, OF
#19 - Pablo Aliendo, C
#18 - Haydn McGeary, 1b
#17 - Jaxson Wiggins, SP 
#16 - Luis Vazquez, SS

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Jason's 20th Ranked Prospect: Luis Vázquez, SS
I really like the floor Vázquez brings. He’s an easy 60, maybe even a 65 glove at a premium position, with a bat that’s improving across the board. I’m not entirely sure there’s a starter's build, at least on a playoff team, but I do think there’s a really good bench bat, and maybe a second-division starter. I keep looking at him and thinking the best-case scenario is something along the lines of José Iglasies, who’s made a decent little career of being a glove-first shortstop for mediocre teams. The Cubs bench is a little full for me to think he’s going to make his debut in April, but being on the 40-man, he’s likely “first man up” when Nick Madrigal makes his yearly trip to the injured list.

Josh's 20th Ranked Prospect: Christian Franklin, OF
After missing all of 2022 with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, the 24-year-old Franklin made up for lost time during the 2023 season. The right-hitting outfielder started the year at Low-A Myrtle Beach and finished the year at Double-A Tennessee, but spent most of the season at High-A South Bend. His time there was actually two different stints, after an interesting decision by the organization to have him spend about a month (from June 19 until July 14) on the Developmental List, working with coaches and playing in the Arizona Complex League. In the 37 games in South Bend before he was sent to Arizona, he was hitting only .200 with a .374 OPS. Upon returning to the South Bend lineup on July 20, however, he was a completely different hitter, slashing .315/.449/.593 at the level before being promoted to Tennessee in September.

That adjustment led the Cubs to add Franklin to their Arizona Fall League roster in October, where he hit two doubles before being shut down with a minor, unspecified injury. Considered by many to be the steal of the 2021 Draft when he fell to the Cubs in the fourth round, Franklin finally looks to be living up to that hype. The Cubs have quite a number of outfield prospects ranked ahead of him at this point, but another good season could vault him up to their level. I think the reason I have Franklin higher than most is because, for a speedy outfielder like him to be able to come back from that particular injury to have the season he had speaks volumes about his level of dedication, which makes me think he’s likely to keep improving in 2024.

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Jason's 19th Ranked Prospect: Drew Gray, SP
The lefthander from IMG has been on a nice upward trajectory recently, and I think 2024 could be a nice breakout for him. On the surface, the walk rate in Low-A last year looks high, but a five-walk performance on August 12th where he didn’t even get out of the first is doing a lot of work. There’s clearly refinement needed, as well as some need to see him go deeper, but I just think the stuff from the left side really plays up here. We’re years away from a debut in the majors, but there’s mid-rotation upside, and the stuff is good enough that there’s a relief profile in there, too. Not sure he’s a star, but he’s been a nice find from Day 2 of his Draft class for the Cubs.

Josh's 19th Ranked Prospect: Pablo Aliendo, C
A top-notch defensive catcher, the 22-year-old Aliendo started to make some noise with his bat in 2023, sporting career highs in home runs, doubles, walks, and RBI while playing the entire season at Double-A Tennessee. Aliendo has always had the receiving skills to play the position at a high level. The questions have always been more about his bat, so those numbers signify that he may be starting to put it all together. After signing with the Cubs as a 17-year-old out of Venezuela in 2018, Aliendo really struggled during his initial few seasons of pro ball, and the lost pandemic season of 2020 only added to the tsuris soup.

He started to figure some things out in 2022, though, putting together a solid season in South Bend. He added some weight and started to hit the ball harder. He added even more muscle during the last offseason, and it showed with those power numbers. I’m really looking forward to seeing what he can do in 2024. Defensively, he could play at the major-league level right now, so if he continues to improve with the bat, he could be in line for a promotion to Chicago as early as this year. If he struggles, however, he could be passed on the organizational depth chart by a higher-ranked prospect in Moises Ballesteros. The range of outcomes with Aliendo is pretty fascinating.

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Jason's 18th Ranked Prospect: Michael Arias, SP/RP
I put Arias a bit higher on my list than Drew Gray, simply because he was able to move up to South Bend last year, and I think the stuff is a bit better, though Arias is considerably more raw. He has an interesting three-quarter release that is much more characteristic of a middle reliever, but until he’s actually moved to the pen, the dream of Arias remaining in the rotation lives. I really don’t think he’s going to stick long in the rotation, though, because there just feels like a gulf between the control and command needed for that role and where he’s at. None of this is to suggest he can’t improve, just that I don’t think he’ll do it. With that said, once the Cubs make the bullpen transition happen, Arias could have a rocket ship attached to his back. While I think a 2024 debut (even in the case of a bullpen move) is a bit of a long shot, I can’t completely rule it out. With the arm slot, and the fastball/slider combo, Arias could be a real righty-killer out of the pen--someone Craig Counsell could fall in love with.

Josh's 18th Ranked Prospect: Haydn McGeary, 1b
I’ve decided to simply believe that McGeary is legit until he proves me wrong. He’s been underestimated at every level, and at this point he has proved himself over and over again. In high school in Arizona, he went virtually unnoticed until he led the nation in home runs his senior year. That brought out the D1 offers, but McGeary stayed true to his commitment to Colorado Mesa, where he proceeded to become the D2 National Player of the year twice. He expected to be drafted after his stellar junior season, but somehow went undrafted, prompting him to work even harder his senior year. That tenacity and the skills it honed garnered interest from the Cubs, who took him in the 15th round in 2022. Since then, all he has done is hit. It’s pretty strange when a 6-foot-4, 235-pound slugger goes under the radar, yet here we are with McGeary. He will likely spend 2024 at Double-A, but if he continues his current trajectory, he could find himself playing first base in Chicago sooner rather than later.

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Jason's 17th Ranked Prospect: Matt Mervis, 1b
My feelings about Matt “Mash” Mervis have gone on a roller coaster over the last two years. At first, I was incredibly excited, and it was hard not to be. Despite being an undrafted free agent in 2020, Mervis rocketed through multiple levels in 2022 and looked like he really could be an impact bat, with low strikeout numbers, good walk numbers, and impressive left-handed power. Then Mervis struggled at the MLB level and was sent back to Triple-A for extra seasoning.

Looking at his contact and swing numbers after he was sent down, and his tweaks, I have put the brakes on how I felt about him in 2022: I think his overall numbers hide process issues that are exploitable at the highest level. I think he swings a little too much, and his contact ability (65% zone contact% his final three months) has been trending in the wrong direction. There’s still a path to MLB relevance, but with Michael Busch and possibly Cody Bellinger in the way, the reality is that that path probably isn’t with the Cubs. If he can return to being a 75% zone-contact hitter (as he was in the beginning of the season in Triple-A), as well as make more consistent contact around the zone, he can be a mid-range first baseman. My faith that it will happen, is much lower than it was in the past, which is why he finds himself on the back end of my top-20.

Josh's 17th Ranked Prospect: Jaxon Wiggins, SP
To me, the trading away of Jackson Ferris this offseason is a signifier that the Cubs believe they have a stockpile of pitching prospects. I'm not suggesting that the team wanted to part with Ferris, but I do think that they feel like they were dealing from a position of depth when it comes to pitching--as opposed to a few years ago, when the system seemed relatively low from that perspective. I’m thinking about guys like Arias, Gray, Brody McCullough, and especially Wiggins, who I think is the best of that particular group. I watched Wiggins pitch Arkansas to a win in the SEC Tournament Championship game in 2021, and I felt like he was probably the best pitcher I saw in that tournament, one that featured Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Wiggins’s Hogs teammate Kevin Kopps.

Wiggins followed up that performance with another good year in 2022, but then was forced to miss all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Cubs took him in the 2nd round in that 2023 draft anyway, mostly because of his raw stuff and projectability, but also because of his athleticism and reputation as a strength and conditioning freak. Between all of that and his experience pitching in big games with a dominant Arkansas team, Wiggins has a bright future ahead of him.

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Jason's 16th Ranked Prospect: Jaxon Wiggins, SP
Wiggins feels like someone who’s underrated by many fans. I know there hasn’t been any recent data point for what Wiggins looks like on a mound, as he missed all of 2023 with Tommy John surgery. However, there’s a few things that tilt in Wiggins favor, and as to why I have him all the way up at 16th on my list. First, the stuff; Wiggins legitimately hits upper 90s on the gun, and already has a plus changeup (though not plus command of it). The Cubs have had tons of success teaching sweeper-sliders recently, and this feels like a great complimentary piece for him. Secondly, he was reportedly looking much better in the fall, garnering belief he could be a first round pick.

Junior year is when we see SEC pitchers take major steps forward, and Wiggins never got that opportunity. Lastly, Ty Nichols, the scout on record, recommended him. Nichols has been on some kind of heater recently, being the scout of record for both Jordan Wicks and Cade Horton, and I am inclined to trust his judgment. There’s plenty of risk in Wiggins's profile, but also just enough stuff that the ceiling could be a front-line type of an arm if it all comes together. I think of every prospect on the list, Wiggins’s pro debut in 2024 is what I’m most excited about. Am I confident enough to say he’s for sure another Horton? Absolutely not. Is there just enough there that I think he might be in that mold? Yes, and that’s why he’s here on this list.

Josh's 16th Ranked Prospect: Luis Vázquez, SS
Vázquez is an amazing defender, capable of playing short or third at the MLB level right now if need be. His bat has always been the question, but to be honest, he answered some of those questions in 2023, posting career-high numbers in SLG and OPS while playing at the highest levels of his career. I think the ceiling moved way up for Vázquez last season, to the point where I could easily see the 24-year-old as the Cubs' utility infielder as early as Opening Day this year.

That said, I don’t think that’s likely. A more likely outcome is him continuing to progress at Iowa this season and forcing the Cubs to either bring him up or trade him.

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Whom do you agree with more? Jason? Or Josh? Or do you think we're both off base? Let us know in the comment section below!

 

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[Tim]

Just from a format perspective, can you include a concise list at the top or bottom of the article?

[Guest234]

38 minutes ago, Tim said:

Just from a format perspective, can you include a concise list at the top or bottom of the article?

Concise palaver is not possible.

[Jason Ross]

39 minutes ago, Tim said:

Just from a format perspective, can you include a concise list at the top or bottom of the article?

Didn't even think about that in the first one! Let me fix that for ya.

[Jason Ross]

44 minutes ago, Tim said:

Just from a format perspective, can you include a concise list at the top or bottom of the article?

Added a quick reference spoiler's tab up near the top! Thanks for the feedback, Tim. 

[Tim]

16 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Added a quick reference spoiler's tab up near the top! Thanks for the feedback, Tim. 

Perfect! That's much easier to use as a reference for comparison between lists.