Article: 2024 Prospect Previews: Michael Carico

[Jamie Cameron]

The Cubs selected catcher Michael Carico out of Davidson University in the 5th round of the 2023 draft. Carico ranked as the 88th-best prospect in the class on our Consensus Board. What can Cubs fans expect from the backstop in 2024?

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

Michael Carico was one of my favorite under-the-radar signings in the 2023 MLB Draft class. In particular, he was a sneakily good selection given the Cubs' sad-trombone combination of not much money and not many picks in the higher rounds. The catcher position was barren in 2023. After Blake Mitchell and Kyle Teel, Carico was the only other catcher I had ranked in my top 100 (Ralphy Velazquez was listed as a first baseman and catcher), with the next-ranked prospect being Zion Rose at 120th overall. Yikes.

While I’d usually advocate for selecting from the strength of a given draft, rather than weaker demographics, we often arrive at spots where that is no longer relevant. Selecting Carico 149th qualifies.

Young for the college demographic of the draft class at just 20 years old on draft day, the 6'0", 190-pound receiver played only sporadically in his first season at Davidson, before a massive breakout in 2022. In 54 games he put together a nutty .406/.559/.843 line with 21 home runs and 21 doubles, to turn heads nationally. His follow-up season in 2023 was marred by injuries, but there was still plenty to celebrate. In 21 games, he managed a .350/.514/.688 line with 7 home runs.

Carico’s offensive profile is underpinned by good swing decisions and above-average power. In his final season in college, he maintained a 15.9% walk rate and a strikeout rate south of 14%. Carico has a slightly stiff, steep swing that lends itself to fly balls. So what’s the catch? Quality of competition. 

Carico faced a very limited sample of pitches over 93 mph (around 2%) in his collegiate career, so I think there's going to be an adjustment period in pro ball. If he can make that adjustment, there’s a really solid offensive profile there, if not, there’s at least some value in the left-handed pop and strong on-base skills.

Defensively, Carico should be given every opportunity to continue at catcher. He has a solid-average arm with good defensive actions, and like most young catchers, there's some work to do to continue to improve his receiving skills. There’s plenty there to let percolate, and sticking behind the plate would do much to raise the offensive profile.

Carico did make a seven-game pro debut after being drafted, managing a .784 OPS with 4 walks and a home run in the Arizona Complex League. His first full season should be a solid barometer and test for Carico. He’ll be coming into the season healthy, and he’ll get an extended opportunity to see better stuff than he did consistently in college. I like Carico as an interesting name to watch in 2024. There’s certainly enough there to make the pick good value as-is, with an improved ceiling directly proportional to the improvements he can make to the hit tool. In the fifth round, he's everything you could ask for.

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What are your thoughts on the Michael Carico pick? What are your hopes for his 2024 season?

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[craig]

Such an intriguing pick.  Will be super interesting to see how he fares at Myrtle.  Such a big jump in pitching talent that he'll face, who knows how that will go.  But fun to dream that he's just a really smart, good hitter and that he'll keep hitting even as the velocity jumps.  

Defense is a huge question too, obviously.  But would be so fun if he emerged as a viable catcher defensively.  Would be super fun if both he and Ballesteros strengthen their defensive reputations this season, and both have win-win seasons both defensively and hitting.