Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs Position Battles: Third Base

[Josh Illes]

With spring training underway, it's time to dig into the questions that will burn throughout the Cubs' time in Arizona. Today, we have the first in a series of pieces about the position battles that will unfold during camp.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The Cubs began last season with Patrick Wisdom as their starting third baseman on Opening Day. They gave Nick Madrigal his first ever start at the hot corner for game two. Those two players ended up combining to start 133 games at the position for the team last season, with Madrigal getting the majority of those. It may or may not go without saying that this gave the Cubs a glaring hole, at least offensively, at this position all season long. If you expected that this hole would have been filled by now heading into the 2024 season…well, you would be incorrect. Let’s break it down.

The Leader in the Clubhouse: Nick Madrigal
2023 Stats: 92 G, 294 PA, .263/.311/.352. 2 HR, 10 SB, 3.4% BB, 8.2% K. 0.9 fWAR, 1.2 bWaR, 1.1 WARP
2024 Projected Stats: ZiPS: 99 G, 365 PA, .285/.335/.386, 2 HR, 7 SB, 1.7 fWAR; PECOTA: 364 PA, .283/.337/.381, 4 HR, 5 SB, 1.7 WARP

Those offensive numbers are simply not going to cut it--not at third, and honestly, probably not even at second, where Madrigal is so much more intuitive a fit. If there is one thing that he does well with the bat, it’s that he rarely strikes out. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball. A player who can put the ball in play certainly has some value, but that value is ideally best utilized in a pinch-hitting role, especially given that a better version of Madrigal already plays second every day for the Cubs.

Defensively, Madrigal deserves the strongest pat on the back for even learning how to play the hot corner between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. A prototypical keystone sacker, the middle infield is all he had ever played prior to last season. The Cubs have Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson up the middle, though, and they represent one of baseball's best double play combos, so Madrigal needed to learn some position flexibility on the fly just to get a chance to earn some playing time.

And earn it he did. Looking at the defensive metrics, Madrigal played above-average defense at the hot corner last season, and an argument could be made that what he lacked with his bat, he made up for with his glove. He ran up 10 Outs Above Average, sixth-best among all third basemen, despite playing there only part of the time. Looking at Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), he posted 8, good for fifth-best at the position. On a rate basis, he was the best defender in the league at the position. Again, for a prototypical second baseman, Madrigal played great defense at the hot corner, which is why (as of this moment) he is the favorite to open the year as the starter.

The Contenders
There is no doubt that, while the Cubs were satisfied with the way Madrigal played as a stop gap, they can’t be happy with that lack of offensive output at a position that really requires at least some amount of thump. So, while it may still be Madrigal’s job to lose, one would think that there will be plenty of opportunities for someone to take the job from him this spring. Let’s look at the players who may be vying for the job, placed into separate categories.

The True Backups: Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni
Wisdom brings a lot more power than Madrigal, but also a lot more swing-and-miss and much worse defense. I think the fact that the team was looking at Madrigal to take the job from Wisdom says everything that needs to be said about the likelihood of Wisdom taking the job back.

Mastrobuoni is a very competent major-league bench infielder. He isn’t good enough to be an everyday player, but he does his job very well. Let’s not overcomplicate his role.

Potential Starting Options: Christopher Morel, Michael Busch
Two big bats who need a place to play on this 2024 Cubs team. If either of them could show any semblance of being able to play the position at even a passable level, the job would be theirs in a heartbeat. The likelihood of that skill is low, however. Morel simply lacks the consistency to be trusted there every day, but to his credit, he has been working there this offseason, so he could theoretically show up to spring training and wow everyone with his improvement.

The newly acquired Busch has mostly played first and second base in the Dodgers farm system, but he played shortstop in high school and has plenty of arm strength. He’s one to keep an eye on in Arizona, if the team gives him a chance.

Free Agent Who Will Immediately Seize Control of the Position If Signed: Matt Chapman
By far the best third baseman still available in free agency, Chapman is one of the best defensive third basemen in all of baseball, and one of the best of his generation. He also hits the ball very hard, and were he to sign with the club, he would immediately be penciled into the lineup every day. If the front office can get him on a two- or three-year deal, I really think they would do it. And if they did, he would immediately transform the already-stellar Cubs infield defense into the best in all of baseball. That’s a pretty good reason to sign him, honestly.

Minor League Players Who Could Matter: Matt Shaw, Luis Vázquez
Vázquez is a defensive whiz on the left side of the infield. The 24-year-old profiles primarily as a shortstop, but he is a more than capable third baseman as well. There's no doubt that he could handle playing the position at the major-league level right now, if need be. For Vázquez, the questions are more about his bat. Although he displayed more power last year than at any previous point in his career, he still doesn’t have quite the pop you want to see out of a big-league third baseman. He also has a very high strikeout rate, and probably doesn’t draw enough walks to make up for it. That said, what he brings to the table looks pretty good considering the other options, so I don’t want to completely rule him out.

I really want to highlight Shaw, the Cubs' first-round draft pick in 2023. A shortstop at Maryland, Shaw has just enough experience at third that it has warranted a fair amount of chatter that he may be given a shot to win the position on the Cubs as soon as the team feels he is ready, which could be as soon as, well, now. If he gets a shot, he could very easily take it and never look back. He's spent most of the winter getting reps at the position, with an eye toward that very possibility.

Conclusion
Much of this conversation has centered around the crazy fact that the team appears likely to repeat the same mistake they made last season, in deciding to play Madrigal rather than finding an above-average option. That leads me to believe that they think the answer is Shaw, and they are simply waiting for him to grab the job. However, if they have already decided that Shaw is a year or two away from being able to contribute, I’d be surprised if they didn’t sign Chapman. When all is said and done, I think one of those two players will end up winning this battle.

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What's your level of confidence in each of the Cubs' options at third base, entering camp? Are you similarly down on Madrigal as a semi-regular? Join the conversation with a comment below.

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[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Josh Illes said:

Much of this conversation has centered around the crazy fact that the team appears likely to repeat the same mistake they made last season,

There are mistakes and there are things that are just circumstances, and IMO 3B this winter is very much just the latter.  The 3B market is/was Matt Chapman, Jeimer Candelario, and Gio Urshela.  End of list.  Not exactly a robust market.

Urshela's not much (any?) better than the guys we've got in house, and is coming off a major injury to boot.  Candelario would'vebeen a modest upgrade, but his defense at 3B is slipping and he'll probably be a tweener like Wisdom before too long.  We all know the deal with Chapman and the Boras guys.

I actually think the timeshare at 3rd should work out reasonably well.  You've got a good complement of offensive skillets.  I think the big question is whether any of Busch/Wisdom/Morel can be closer to -5 at the position than -15.  But if not Madrigal getting ~70% of the playing time until one of the kids is ready is fine.  The problem is if we're saying more or less the same thing about CF as well.  You can only piecemeal so many positions at once.

[squally1313]

The correct answer is Matt Chapman starting 140 games, with Wisdom upgraded to a more legitimate veteran bat and Madrigal and Mastro competing for the backup infield spot or maybe there's room for both of them, who knows. 

That being said, the Cubs got the 11st most fWAR at third last year (2.7), and that's with Jeimer coming in and doing basically nothing there. Is it repeatable? A little tougher to thread that needle than, say, just signing the dude who has produced at a 3.5+ fWAR rate his entire career. But, as Bertz said, there are piecemeal options to hold the fort down for 3-6 months, just don't want to be doing that all over the place. 

[Josh Illes]

35 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The problem is if we're saying more or less the same thing about CF as well.  You can only piecemeal so many positions at once.

I could not agree more with that last part. As someone who wants the team to just insert PCA into the lineup in CF on Opening Day and just leave him there and let him take his lumps, I was hoping for a more stable solution at 3B to counter that instability. That's why I've been on the Chapman train for much of the offseason. He makes the most sense on a team that is relying on good defense, which seems to be what the Cubs plan is as of right now. His bat is average, but he can hit the ball hard at least. He's like the very definition of stable. As much as I'd like to see Shaw, I'm simply more interested in seeing PCA when it comes right down to it. 

[squally1313]

My desire for Chapman has been more based on this hole in the budget than a particular desire for a guy like him. Think him and Bellinger are both above average but very much capped at 'below elite', especially offensively, and we already have 4 of those guys in the lineup locked up. That being said, if you want to map out a path for 'not elite offense but elite overall non-pitching performance', you probably can't do much better than three all world defensive infielders, an 80 grade centerfielder, and (for whatever this is worth), a multiple gold glove winning left fielder. 

[CubinNY]

47 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

My desire for Chapman has been more based on this hole in the budget than a particular desire for a guy like him. Think him and Bellinger are both above average but very much capped at 'below elite', especially offensively, and we already have 4 of those guys in the lineup locked up. That being said, if you want to map out a path for 'not elite offense but elite overall non-pitching performance', you probably can't do much better than three all world defensive infielders, an 80 grade centerfielder, and (for whatever this is worth), a multiple gold glove winning left fielder. 

there is no hole in the budget. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

there is no hole in the budget. 

Maybe. You seem to be definitively saying that we're done with this offseason. Those four guys are going to be playing somewhere this year. Most people here think that the Cubs are very clearly near or at the top of the list of teams that make sense for one of them to play for. They haven't signed anywhere yet. 

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Maybe. You seem to be definitively saying that we're done with this offseason. Those four guys are going to be playing somewhere this year. Most people here think that the Cubs are very clearly near or at the top of the list of teams that make sense for one of them to play for. They haven't signed anywhere yet. 

Yes. I think the Cubs may get one if the value is right. I don't think Jed is not interested in longer-term contracts for any of them. A short deal with high salary is probably more to Jed's liking. 

Edited February 15, 2024 by CubinNY