Article: Dansby Swanson and Crushing the Ball in the Middle of the Plate

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs can have relatively few complaints about the player to whom they committed themselves for seven years last winter. He had a great first season on the North Side. There's just this one thing...

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

In his final two seasons with Atlanta, Dansby Swanson crushed the ball in the middle third of the plate. In what seems to be the best-maintained environment for hitters in all of baseball, Swanson stayed locked in on doing damage when pitchers were in the middle of the plate, and he rarely missed. Of the 261 hitters who took at least 600 plate appearances in 2021 and 2022 combined, Swanson had the 25th-highest wOBA on pitches in the middle third.

Obviously, hitters are good in that area, even on average. They batted .292/.312/.527 on those pitches across the two campaigns. To stand out in that crowd, then, you have to put up huge numbers. Swanson did, batting .328/.351/.634 in 441 plate appearances that ended on pitches in that area. His batted-ball data was all markedly above-average, although he had to trade a bit of contact to generate that high-quality damage when he did connect. It was the right kind of tradeoff.

In 2023, that part of Swanson's game fell on hard times. He ranked 216th of 293 batters with at least 300 plate appearances on middle-third wOBA, with a .252/.287/.447 line. He chased a little more, whiffed a little more, hit the ball a little less hard, and lifted the ball a little less, and it all added up to a 50-point dip in BABIP and a loss of about .130 in isolated power. He made up for some of that shortfall in other areas, as evidenced by the similar overall numbers he put up (a 107 DRC+ in 2023, compared to 110 in 2022; a 104 wRC+, compared to 116 the previous year), but the deficiency was real.

Swanson really only did significant damage on the inner third of the plate in 2023, whereas in 2021 and 2022, he had been able to cover the whole strike zone in a dangerous way.

Some of that is about approach. Notedly, Swanson became more patient at the plate in 2023, which is part of how he made up for doing less damage on contact. With his selectivity came a slightly deeper contact pont; he met the ball later in its flight most of the time. However, there's also a mechanical aspect to analyze here. Let's look at a couple videos of Swanson putting a hard swing on the ball in the middle third of the plate. First, from 2023:

 And then from 2022:

Compare Swanson's swings on these offerings--especially his lower half. In his final season in Atlanta, he was doing what the Braves do best: attacking the ball with ferocious intent. Yet, he didn't overstride, or get so deep into his legs that he had to come back up as he swung. His barrel got under the ball enough to lift it, but his foundation stayed under him the whole time, so there was no wasted motion or energy. 

In 2023, he's doing a lot of the same things, but the stride gets slightly overlong on him, and he does sink deeper into his legs, forcing him to come back up as he's swinging. He meets the ball cleanly, but without as much authority, and it dies shy of the track in left-center field.

Now, here's a swing on which Swanson did all of those 2022 things, but from 2023:

We can talk a bit about pitch selection here. Bailey Falter sped up Swanson's bat in an 0-2 count with a fastball, and missed his spot pretty badly. Angel Perdomo, by contrast, threw almost as hard on the pitch that induced a lazy fly out, but it was a changeup. That helps explain why Swanson's stride got longer and his hips lower on the pitch he wasn't able to crush. This is part of why Swanson has always hit fastballs well and offspeed stuff less so. 

Still, that slight mechanical change is telling, because it's why Swanson was still good at attacking the inside pitch this past year, but struggled with stuff down and out over the plate. When a pitcher comes inside on you (and especially up and in, and especially with anything hard), it forces you to be shorter, quicker, and taller in your swing. That accords with what Swanson needs to do better and more consistently, anyway. As a hitter, it can be hard to trust your eyes and your strength enough to stay tall and extend your arms to generate power on pitches down and away, but for a guy like Swanson, that trust is essential. If he wants to get back to driving the ball productively even when it's not inside on him, he has to stay fresh enough and explosive enough to stay tall and still swing hard.

Do you think the Cubs will get an offensive season from Swanson to match his best in Atlanta, over the balance of his contract? What other adjustments do you want to see from him this year? Let's talk hitting.

View full article

[Bertz]

I honestly wonder how much of this is luck.  His actual slugging percentage was 40 points under his expected via Statcast.  It's not the whole story but I'd guess it's a majority of it.

Overall it's hard not to be ecstatic about Swanson.  The degree to which you'd clearly most rather have him going forward amongst last winter's big 4 shortstops is wild.  I'm sure some of the more meatbally fans can't deal with his offensive streakiness but he's a legit star between the lines and it also sounds like in the clubhouse.

[Matthew Trueblood]

10 hours ago, Bertz said:

I honestly wonder how much of this is luck.  His actual slugging percentage was 40 points under his expected via Statcast.  It's not the whole story but I'd guess it's a majority of it.

Overall it's hard not to be ecstatic about Swanson.  The degree to which you'd clearly most rather have him going forward amongst last winter's big 4 shortstops is wild.  I'm sure some of the more meatbally fans can't deal with his offensive streakiness but he's a legit star between the lines and it also sounds like in the clubhouse.

It's one of those places where, as we get a ton of insight into the game over time, the lines between "luck" and "real phenomenon that still might not repeat itself even if not actively adjusted" become blurry. I don't think Swanson got unlucky in 2023. He miiight have gotten a bit lucky in 2022. There were real tradeoffs involved in some of the adjustments he made last year, and this looks to be one of them, to me. That doesn't mean he won't lock right back in, with a winter's unconscious reset of everything. So, we'll see.

You're right, he's certainly earned his keep so far. I'm not as sure as you are that I'd rather have him than Bogaerts or Turner, but they did get so much more money and so much longer deals than his that it probably washes out even if you think either or both of them are slightly better, and more than washes out if you think he's right on their level. Comparing him to Correa, at this point, is almost impossible. Talk about two vastly different career paths.