Article: Coming Round Right with Owen Caissie

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs have stars in each corner outfield spot going into 2024. After trading for Michael Busch, they might well have first base locked down, too. The places to play a big, defensively limited slugger are all but gone. However, there's one minor-league bat who just might force his way into the picture, anyway.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It's not as though Owen Caissie is a sure thing. He struck out over 30 percent of the time in Double A in 2023, a red flag consistent with the rest of his professional track record. That's why the Cubs aren't banking on him. On the other hand, Caissie hits the stuffing out of the ball. Baseball America gathered exit velocity data on all the hitters who made their Top 100 prospects list this month, and Caissie's average of 93.3 miles per hour was fourth-highest. Playing (primarily) at a higher level of competition, he matched the average exit velocity of elite prospect and top 2023 draftee Dylan Crews. Caissie batted .289/.398/.519, and his maximum exit velocity was over 117 miles per hour.

That kind of power puts a player in league not just with big-leaguers, but with the best sluggers in that league. He's just a half-step behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He's right in line with Joey Gallo. That's what makes Caissie too fascinating to overlook or discount, in the medium-term future. Like those hitters, he will strike out a lot, but like them, he also shows patience and a good eye at the plate. He walked over 14 percent of the time last year, at a very young age for his level of competition. (Five months younger than Crews, Caissie played the whole season at Double A.)

He's not as good a pure hitter as Judge or Ohtani. The question is whether he can be as good as Gallo, because if so, he can still be tremendously productive in the big leagues. To that end, let's talk about not just how hard Caissie hits the ball, but where.

Here are Caissie's spray charts for 2021 and 2022, as he ascended through the lower levels of the minors. He was a good hitter during those two years, but not a great one. In 659 plate appearances, he hit 32 doubles, two triples, and 18 homers. That's not bad, given the leagues and parks in which he was playing and his extreme youth. It's just that it wouldn't make him a viable big-leaguer, given all the strikeouts he's sure to rack up.

Frankly, it's impressive that a player as young as Caissie was able to generate even fairly modest power numbers with such an opposite field-focused approach. Caissie was hitting with authority to all fields, but it's hard to hit for big power without consistently pulling the ball in the air, and he didn't do it.

Let's turn to his 2023 spray chart.

Now, that is more like it. That's how you have to hit the ball in order to make up for striking out over 30 percent of the time, as Caissie seems certain to do in the bigs. In about 130 fewer plate appearances than over the previous two seasons combined, Caissie had 31 doubles, two triples, and 22 homers. Without losing the ability to hammer the ball to the gap in left-center field, he started consistently elevating, and doing it to his pull field in right.

Had Caissie been in MLB, his rate of pulling the ball to far right field (basically, the two rightmost sections of the charts above) would have led the league. Since he wasn't, it was Gallo who led in that category. That doesn't sound especially complimentary, but Gallo is better than his reputation. He's been wildly inconsistent since the onset of the pandemic, but he was highly effective in his early 20s, and even in 2023, he posted a 104 wRC+, with 21 home runs in 332 plate appearances.

If Caissie truly had Gallo's power (including the ability to actualize it), he'd already be in the big leagues. Pulling the ball more, putting it in the air more, these are vital aspects of getting to more of an individual's power, but they aren't the whole picture, and one can't answer all the important questions about that picture without climbing above Double A and seeing some more advanced pitching.

With Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, and Christopher Morel already on the roster, the Cubs don't have a lot of available playing time for a player like Caissie, who's only cut out to be a corner outfielder or a first baseman, if not a DH. If they re-sign Cody Bellinger, the eye of that needle will only get smaller. Caissie's already had a full season in Tennessee, though. He's on the verge of the big leagues, where he'll have to either pass or fail the test the great pitchers there will pose. If he can continue developing on the arc he described this past season, he can force his way into the team's plans sooner, rather than later.

How do you think Caissie fits into the Cubs' short- and longer-term plans? Do you expect to see him make a significant impact in the big leagues this year? Discuss below.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia.

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[Jason Ross]

I'm the biggest Owen-Caissie-Stan here, I'll admit it. I liked him way back in the 2020 draft, was ectatic the Cubs nabbed him in the Darvish trade, and have enjoyed his development. His K% numbers on the season really hide the progress he's been making there, and as you pointed out, his pull ability has gotten better. Early in his career, his "hit box" (where Caissie made initial contact with the baseball) was really deep. He was so patient, and has relatively fast hands, that he was able to let the ball travel a bit extra and still hit it well. It played into his K's a bit, but also his opposite field reliance. He's since worked on that, and he's making contact more in front of the ball and less behind it. 

With this said, I don't think he'll play a big role in 2024 with the Cubs. He's likely ticketed to Iowa where he'll play some 1b, and some RF. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Chicago by September, but I also expect growing pangs. Owen Caissie has followed a pretty consistent pattern the last two years: he struggles early at a new level (being an extreme under-ager) where he then begins to figure it out, and by the end of the season has seemingly solved the current challenge. Iowa being a decent step up from Tennessee, and likely one which will challenge him even greater up and in (attacking the levers), I think he'll have a line that has people here worrying through mid-May or so. By September, I think he'll have turned the corner and he could be a very fun bench bat for the stretch run. 

Where I think he'll effect is 2025. It gives the Cubs a ton of flexibility. If they get Bellinger in on an early opt-out deal, he could be "next man up" at 1b/DH. If Busch can play 3b, or if Morel can play 3b, Caissie can fall into a 1b/RF/DH role where he can kind of "bounce" and get 4 days a week in the lineup against RHP. He does look like someone who struggles against LHP (his K% against RHP was much better), so he's someone who might never be an "every day" guy anyways. 

[CubinNY]

5 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm the biggest Owen-Caissie-Stan here, I'll admit it. I liked him way back in the 2020 draft, was ectatic the Cubs nabbed him in the Darvish trade, and have enjoyed his development. His K% numbers on the season really hide the progress he's been making there, and as you pointed out, his pull ability has gotten better. Early in his career, his "hit box" (where Caissie made initial contact with the baseball) was really deep. He was so patient, and has relatively fast hands, that he was able to let the ball travel a bit extra and still hit it well. It played into his K's a bit, but also his opposite field reliance. He's since worked on that, and he's making contact more in front of the ball and less behind it. 

With this said, I don't think he'll play a big role in 2024 with the Cubs. He's likely ticketed to Iowa where he'll play some 1b, and some RF. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Chicago by September, but I also expect growing pangs. Owen Caissie has followed a pretty consistent pattern the last two years: he struggles early at a new level (being an extreme under-ager) where he then begins to figure it out, and by the end of the season has seemingly solved the current challenge. Iowa being a decent step up from Tennessee, and likely one which will challenge him even greater up and in (attacking the levers), I think he'll have a line that has people here worrying through mid-May or so. By September, I think he'll have turned the corner and he could be a very fun bench bat for the stretch run. 

Where I think he'll effect is 2025. It gives the Cubs a ton of flexibility. If they get Bellinger in on an early opt-out deal, he could be "next man up" at 1b/DH. If Busch can play 3b, or if Morel can play 3b, Caissie can fall into a 1b/RF/DH role where he can kind of "bounce" and get 4 days a week in the lineup against RHP. He does look like someone who struggles against LHP (his K% against RHP was much better), so he's someone who might never be an "every day" guy anyways. 

Given the level of play in AAA with rehabbing, and AAAA career guys, I expect Owen to have some adjustment to do, but he's going to play well. He has so much K in his game though, he has to get those down.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Given the level of play in AAA with rehabbing, and AAAA career guys, I expect Owen to have some adjustment to do, but he's going to play well. He has so much K in his game though, he has to get those down.

The K issues are there, but I really think they're overblown to a degree. First, we have to remember that he was really young for his league; for most of the time, he was the youngest player. Secondly, the pre-tacked baseball legitimately took K% and skyrocketed it. Then you have his struggles against LHP.

On the surface it seems "arbitrary" to use July 6th as a cut off, but that's when the pre-tacked ball was lost. The rest of the way...Owen Caissie, not legally able to drink but facing Double-A pitching...struck out under 23% of the time against RHP. Would we consider that a ton of K in his game? I certainly wouldn't.

Now, flip side...he K'd out of his shoes against left handed pitching over that span. I think it's safe to say that Caissie is trending to be a platoon hitter, and I know we've got platoon hitter as like, a massive negative connotation, but I think we have to accept it's okay as we see how the league is adjusting more and more to platoon guys. He's left handed and lefties, across the league, are getting worse and worse against left handed pitching. So, Caissie is just a left-handed hitter like most of the league (it's why it makes left handers who aren't trending that way worth their weight in gold *cough*Michael Busch*cough*). 

So I think the overall numbers kind of hide this improvement. Caissie's K issues exists, but they're probably far more controllable than we realize. Just let him smash right handed pitching and the K's go away. Sit him against lefties and find him a buddy.

[Bertz]

I'm not especially worried about Caissie's strikeouts.  Everyone gets scared by the K rate starting with a 3 but whild his contact numbers are below average they are quite far from alarming.  It's a Kyle Schwarber deal where the K's are more a product of seeing 4.2 pitches per plate appearance than majorly deficient contact ability.

What I am worried is the thing that has sunk Schwarber: Defense.  Caissie's defensive reputation took a good step forward this year, so I'm hoping he's not such an egregious butcher out there.  The other thing that has held Schwarber back is BABIP, but I'm hoping in a post shift ban world Caissie won't have to worry so much about that.

 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm not especially worried about Caissie's strikeouts.  Everyone gets scared by the K rate starting with a 3 but whild his contact numbers are below average they are quite far from alarming.  It's a Kyle Schwarber deal where the K's are more a product of seeing 4.2 pitches per plate appearance than majorly deficient contact ability.

What I am worried is the thing that has sunk Schwarber: Defense.  Caissie's defensive reputation took a good step forward this year, so I'm hoping he's not such an egregious butcher out there.  The other thing that has held Schwarber back is BABIP, but I'm hoping in a post shift ban world Caissie won't have to worry so much about that.

 

Yeah, I think defensively Caissie is world above Schwarber. There were scouting reports of people being so wow'ed about his athleticism for his size in 2020 that some thought he could handle CF down the road, ala Joey Gallo. Those were clearly overblown, but I don't think anyone ever saw Kyle and went "you know what I think that linebacker can do? Center horsefeathers field". 

Caissie probably sizes out of RF down the road, and with Suzuki there, maybe Bellinger around, with Alcantara....etc...there's a good chance he never really plays it in Chicago even early. With that said, the arm is 55/60 grade and the movement isn't so bad he can't do it for a bit, either. I'd expect negative DRSs, probably like -3, -4, or -5 type stuff, but that's within "acceptably bad" levels if you're hitting.