Article: The Cubs Have Made Their Opening Move. What Should They Do Next?

[Josh Illes]

Like a confident chess player who wants to survey the whole board before making a move, the Cubs waited until the second week of January before signing their first major-league free agent. It’s a solid opening move for Jed Hoyer, but how will he follow it up? Let’s check in on who is still available and, of those players, who would most help this Cubs team win.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

First, who is still available? Quite a few players are still available via free agency, including (but not limited to) the following:

• 1B/OF Cody Bellinger
• LHP Blake Snell
• LHP Jordan Montgomery
• 3B Matt Chapman
• LHP Josh Hader (RP)
• DH/OF Jorge Soler
• RHP Marcus Stroman
• DH J.D. Martinez
• RHP Jordan Hicks (RP)
• 1B Rhys Hoskins
• RHP Robert Stephenson (RP)
• RHP Yariel Rodriguez
• RHP Mike Clevinger
• LHP Aroldis Chapman (RP)
• RHP Michael Lorenzen
• 3B/1B Gio Urshela
• 2B/OF Whit Merrifield
• 3B/1B Justin Turner
• 1B Brandon Belt
• RP Hector Neris

Now, for me, there is one name there that stands out above the rest, and we will get to him in a bit, but first let’s take a broader look at where the three facets of the roster--the rotation, the bullpen, and the lineup--currently stand.

STARTING ROTATION
The signing of Imanaga fills the hole in the Cubs rotation left by the departure of Stroman, who is currently a free agent. Stroman pitched 136 2/3 innings for the Cubs last season, and those innings needed to be replaced. Enter Imanaga, who pitched 159 innings last season in Japan. Slotting him in for Stroman makes the Cubs rotation look something like this:

1. Justin Steele
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Shota Imanaga
4. Kyle Hendricks
5. Jordan Wicks

Rotation depth: Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Drew Smyly, Caleb Kilian, Ben Brown, Cade Horton

Do they need to add another starting pitcher? Looking at those names, I’m tempted to say yes, just given all the unknown there. Is it a MUST? Not necessarily. The depth is there. The one thing I will point out is that, after adding Imanaga to the mix, I think it’s at least a possibility that the Cubs will experiment with a six-man rotation. Teams in Japan play six games a week, and each starting pitcher throws one day a week. Thus, Imanaga will have to make the same adjustment that other Japanese pitchers have had to make, as he goes into a five-man rotation. The Mets briefly flirted with the idea of using a six-man rotation last year to help Kodai Senga’s adjustment to MLB go more smoothly, but ultimately decided against it. This Cubs team may have more of an incentive, though, especially if they don’t add another veteran starter. A lot of these guys have not pitched a ton of innings. You would expect everyone not named Hendricks and Taillon to at least have their innings monitored to a degree. If the Cubs were to sign (or trade for) another starting pitcher, that would probably dismiss any notion of the six-man group, but for now, I wouldn't rule it out.

BULLPEN
Bullpens are tricky to figure out in January. For the most part, I think we have to wait and see who sticks in the rotation before we make a confident judgment on the depth of the pen. We do know at least some of the players who are likely to have roles on this year’s team though. In no particular order:

• Adbert Alzolay
• Jose Cuas
• Mark Leiter Jr.
• Luke Little
• Julian Merryweather
• Daniel Palencia
• Michael Rucker
• Keegan Thompson
• Colten Brewer

Those players, in addition to the guys in the section above who don’t end up in the rotation, constitute the likely arms available to Craig Counsell when he raises either his left or right hand. Is that enough? Not even close. As a reminder, Tommy Hottovy mentioned that he needed one starter and two relievers. Well… he got his starter, but by my math, he’s still two relievers short. I guess the real question is: Should they allocate vast sums of money or prospect capital to acquire an expensive bullpen arm? Probably not, but it kind of makes sense. I could see them signing Hader, for instance. It makes a lot of sense if the Cubs want to win right now. It makes even more sense if Counsell signs off on it.

Whether it happens or not is another question entirely. Even if Hader is off the table, though, there are plenty of available options, and I would expect the Cubs to go after a few of them. Neris would make a lot of sense. I've mentioned Hicks before, but he comes with some questions. One name that keeps popping up is Brent Suter. I’d love to see a deal get done there. Regardless, I definitely expect some activity in this department over the next month or so.

LINEUP
Ok. Let's do it. Let's talk about Cody Bellinger. This lineup just doesn’t look the same without him. To prove it, I’m going to show you what it would look like if the season started today:

• C Yan Gomes
• 1B Patrick Wisdom
• 2B Nico Hoerner
• SS Dansby Swanson
• 3B Nick Madrigal
• RF Seiya Suzuki
• CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
• LF Ian Happ
• DH Christopher Morel

Bench: Mike Tauchman, Miguel Amaya, Miles Mastrobuoni

Honestly, that lineup isn’t terrible. It would certainly be a step back from last year’s team, but there’s some potential there, with guys like Morel, PCA, Suzuki, and Happ getting another season under their belts. So… do the Cubs need to make a move here? Absolutely. Probably a couple moves, but definitely at least one. They need to sign Bellinger. I think we all probably agree on that, so let’s look at the more interesting names available--specifically the other two names that keep being linked to the Cubs: Rhys Hoskins and Matt Chapman.

First, with Hoskins, it’s difficult to tell whether the Cubs are being linked to him as a fallback option to Bellinger or as someone they could sign even if they also sign Bellinger. As a fallback option, it makes a lot of sense. Hoskins’s career has been derailed by the knee injury that robbed him of his walk year, and he’s looking for a chance to prove that he’s healthy. It’s a very similar scenario to what Bellinger was looking for last offseason, although Hoskins has never put up MVP-caliber numbers like Bellinger has. As a tandem signing with Bellinger, I understand it but I don’t feel the *need* to do it as much as some others do. For some, the allure of having Hoskins as a proven commodity trumps their desire to see some of the younger players get their shot at everyday playing time. Hoskins would either have to play DH, or he would play first base, which would move Bellinger to center. Right there, you are taking at-bats away from either PCA or Morel, or just clogging the DH spot and forcing Morel to play third base.

That may very well work out great, but it also may work out better the other way around, where the young players get big-league reps and respond positively.

Chapman, to me, is a different story altogether. He is looking for a long-term deal. He plays one position, third, and he plays it well. Signing him means locking up the hot corner for at least five years or so. That could be great. He would bring Gold Glove defense to an infield that already prides itself on defense, making the strength of the team even stronger. The downside is his bat. He does hit for power--he is in the 98th percentile in MLB in average exit velocity and barrel rate, per Statcast--but he has a lot of miss in his swing. He strikes out around 27.8% of the time. To me, when you factor in his age, the amount of money he costs that could be spent elsewhere, the internal options the Cubs have for that spot, and the presence of prospect Matt Shaw, I just don’t see them signing him. But if they do sign him, I will sit back and enjoy one of the greatest defensive infields ever assembled, so it’s not all bad.

What about you? Who do you think the Cubs need to sign? Who did I miss? Let me know.

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[We Got The Whole 9]

Get Bellinger (only at 6/150), Belt, Stephenson, Hicks

[painhertz]

I'll take Bellinger, Hopkins and Montgomery. Add assorted relievers.

[Josh Illes]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Get Bellinger (only at 6/150), Belt, Stephenson, Hicks

Some rumors flying around yesterday that Belt may retire. Otherwise, yeah absolutely. I like it

[Bertz]

I think the expectation is two bats and two relievers.  With the smoke around Bellinger and Hoskins, combined with the fact that it's pretty tough to see a lot of alternatives for either of them them (Giants for Hoskins...and who the heck knows for Bellinger), I'm starting to chalk them up as more or less inevitable. 

The relievers it would be foolhardy to anchor onto one or two.  Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore have each gotten mentions, and they're the approximate level of cost and impact I expect so they're the placeholders in my head right now.

Chris Morel and the trade market are where I think there's some opportunity for wiggle room.  My expectation at this point is they're just going to try and make Morel at 3B work.  If it doesn't, Madrigal can step in and be adequate until one of the youths or the trade deadline can address the position more satisfactorily.  If he doesn't get run at 3B, he would seem to be a trade chip.  We know from all the local writers Jed's been working the phones with other teams pretty hard.  I expect a couple of trades, even if they're minor ones around the bullpen or bench.

[We Got The Whole 9]

58 minutes ago, Josh Illes said:

Some rumors flying around yesterday that Belt may retire. Otherwise, yeah absolutely. I like it

Would help explain why there's been little rumors around his market