Article: Connect Four: The Best Remaining Free Agent Fits For The Cubs

[Josh Illes]

The slow-moving market means that, despite the Cubs' inactivity, there are several remaining free agents whom the team could profitably target. Let's break down the market and identify the best candidates in each segment thereof.

Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, I wrote a short blog post highlighting something that Brewers podcaster Ryan Topp tweeted, alluding to the fact that the list of the top 50 free agents for the 2023/24 offseason via MLB Trade Rumors, has officially reached the point where nearly half of them have been signed by MLB teams.

I was curious where the baseball free agent market stood, so I checked @mlbtraderumors top 50 list and it’s almost exactly half locked up, top to bottom. 5 of the top 10, 10 of the top 20 and 15 of the top 30 and 27 of the top 50 are unsigned.

So we’re basically at the midpoint.

— @rdtopp.bsky.social (@RDTopp) January 4, 2024

That Top 50 is now a Top 26. In case you are blissfully unaware, the Cubs have signed exactly zero of these players. Is it time to panic? No, I don’t believe so. Instead, I think the culling of names provides ample opportunity to peer through the clutter and see the landscape as it lays out in front of the Cubs front office more clearly.

Even a meticulous spender such as Jed Hoyer is probably getting a little restless, knowing that at some point, he will need to sign somebody. Now that some names have come off the board, he’s probably looking at a list of names very similar to what everyone else is studying. As has been noted, the remaining free agents are spread out in a way that is neither top-heavy nor bottom-heavy. If you look at the list cited above in tiers of 1-9, 10-20, 21-30, and 31-50, each of the four tiers has at least five players available.

Let’s assume that Jed would like to spread out his expenditures by acquiring one player from each of these tiers. He’s looking for a certain type of contract, and a certain type of player. The fit, as it were, matters. Each player will be graded in terms of two types of fit:

• Front Office Fit. Will they sign a shorter deal with a higher AAV? Do they have statistical upside? Do they have a high statistical floor? Are they healthy? Do they sell tickets?
• On-Field Fit. Do they fill current roster needs? Do they have positional diversity? 

Let’s also assume that these players make sense in concert with one another. Let’s try to connect four of them together and see what we can come up with.

Tier One

Cody Bellinger
I could get a little wild here and try to tie the Cubs to a high-profile pitcher like Blake Snell or Josh Hader. Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy has been publicly clamoring for one starter and two relievers, and the need is certainly there. As the days and months have gone by, though, it seems more and more likely that the one name here who is most likely to sign with the Cubs is Cody Bellinger. If he and his agent Scott Boras were looking for a team to lock him up at an inflated rate, that window looks like it is closed. We are now closer to the window in which the Cubs operate.

We have obviously seen Bellinger perform well with this Cubs team. We have seen the team perform well with him on it. While it would be nice if he could recapture some of the pop that he had in his bat circa his MVP-caliber years in LA, even the more modest power numbers he put up last year need to be filled by someone. Power is a glaring weakness on this team as currently constituted. Bellinger is still only 28. He is a Gold Glove-caliber player at both first base and center field, at least short-term. The fans clearly want him back. So let’s grade him.

Front Office Fit: B
Positive points for most of the statistical outputs, the decrease in his apex of power notwithstanding. Positive points as far as ticket sales. As far as health, the fact that he was mostly healthy last year and is still relatively young has to count in his favor. The downside, if there is one, is that he wants the type of contract that the Cubs don’t like to give out. He wants more more years with a lower AAV, whereas the Cubs have shown they like shorter deals with a higher AAV. In the end, I think they meet in the middle and both sides are satisfied.

On-Field Fit: A-
This would be an A+ if not for the presence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs' top prospect seems likely to be the everyday center fielder at the big-league level at some point this upcoming season. With the corner spots also locked up with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, that leaves the cold corner as the most likely position for Bellinger. Which is fine. More than fine, actually. He’s great there. There are some minor issues, though. One would be that Bellinger’s outfield defense (a skill, presumably, the Cubs would be paying for to some degree) would be of little use. Another would be that Bellinger has indicated that he’d like to continue to play the outfield. Seeing as though PCA could easily not quite be ready, though, those problems could be mitigated in the short term, so the grade only goes down slightly.

Tier Two

J.D. Martinez
Did I mention that power is a glaring weakness on this Cubs team? I did? Ok good, because power is a glaring weakness on this Cubs team. Sure, it’s possible that Happ and Suzuki take their power numbers up a notch. The upside is there. It’s also possible that someone like Christopher Morel could take a huge step forward in 2024. In the meantime, let’s assume they’ve (re-)acquired some left-handed power, in the form of Bellinger. Now, let’s shore up some power from the right side by signing J.D. Martinez. How’s that for a 1-2 punch?

Martinez is obviously a little older, but he’s not as old as you may think. He’s 36 and, like Bellinger, coming off a strong one-year prove-it deal, having spent last season hitting 33 home runs with a 135 wRC+ for the Dodgers. He could slide right into the DH role for the Cubs, allowing Morel to take over full-time at third base, something that Cubs manager Craig Counsell has suggested he’d like to see work out.

Front Office Fit: A
Martinez may want a multi-year deal. He might get one from someone. He might even get one from the Cubs, but if the stars align in a perfect Jed Hoyer sky, Martinez could be looking at another one-year deal, albeit with a higher value than the one he signed last offseason. Even if he requires a two-year commitment or a deal with a player option, he still won’t be commanding anything long-term, which is really what the Cubs are trying to avoid. He certainly has a high statistical floor, having been well above league average as a hitter every season other than 2020--which I personally think should be mostly ignored, especially in the cases where it exists as the sole outlier. I could probably cite health as a concern here, but considering his age, I’m only going to give him the slightest of slight knocks, from an A+ to an A.

On-Field Fit: A-
As noted, this move really works in conjunction with the Bellinger signing. Power from the left. Power from the right. Done and done. I don’t know if locking up the DH spot is something that Counsell wants, however. Managers like to have some flexibility to rest guys and move the lineup around. For the majority of his managerial career, Counsell hasn’t had the luxury of the DH, having managed exclusively in the NL. When he has had it at his disposal, he has used it both as a way to alternate catchers while still keeping them in the lineup (a.k.a. the David Ross Special), but has also used it for everyday sluggers like Rowdy Tellez and Daniel Vogelbach. In that way, he at least knows how his lineup will be affected.

Tier Three

Jordan Hicks
Let’s get away from the offense with our last two selections. Last year, the Cubs fell out of playoff contention late in the season for one primary reason: they could not hold on to leads. The bullpen was overworked and simply could not sustain their summer success into September. This problem absolutely has to be addressed. Enter the flamethrowing Hicks. His average fastball speed is 100.3 MPH and, although he has some command issues, that is something I’m sure the vaunted Cubs pitch lab would love to work with.

Maybe even more interestingly, though, Baseball Savant has him in the 96th percentile for ground ball rate. Any team that signs Hicks is going to want to have exceptional infield defense. Luckily for the Cubs, they have the best middle infield on the planet, in Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson.

Front Office Fit: A+
Upside. Upside. Upside. That’s probably enough to warrant this grade. He also won’t cost much. MLBTR has him projected at four years and $40 million, but that price has certainly dropped, and will continue to do so the longer he remains on the market.

On-Field Fit: B
It remains to be seen what, exactly, Counsell is looking for in regard to building a bullpen. My guess is that he enjoys having some velo at the back end, having had both Josh Hader and Devin Williams available to him throughout the past few seasons. But Hicks doesn’t miss bats like those two, so it’s hard to project a comfort level here.

Tier Four

Sean Manaea
I don’t want to say we’re getting desperate here, but I will point out that shopping for Jed Hoyer requires making some very hard decisions. If you want to maintain frugality, sacrifices must be made. Or, more to the point, fringe positions must be filled. Manaea certainly doesn’t have the perceived upside he once had, when he was acquired by the Padres from the A’s in 2022. At various times from 2019 through 2021, he could rightly be described as anything from a potential workhorse to someone with a shaky walk rate, and everything in between.

What he is now is a very capable long reliever, with a bunch of upside and an eye on moving back to the rotation full-time. Going back to the discussion regarding the need for Hicks and bullpen help in general, if the Cubs had Manaea available to them last September, he could have very easily made a positive impact and a real difference. To me, this is the type of MLB arm that could make a real difference on this roster, if they miss out on their higher-priced pitching targets.

Front Office Fit: A+
If the Cubs can sign him for two years and less than $25 million, they would be crazy not to do it. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work, and that is an amount they can eat even in the worst-case scenario. That said, the upside is certainly there for it to work out and then some.

On-Field Fit: A
This, in conjunction with Hicks, would at the very least give the Cubs some sorely needed bullpen depth. It also provides some insurance in the rotation, should they need that. The only real downside is... well, that it doesn’t work at all, but as a wise man once said, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

Who are your four tiered targets left on the market? What do you think of these selections? Jump into the comment section and let us know.

 

View full article

[Joj]

Manaea...I'm not seeing it.  2 years and 25M for a reliever with little upside?  Just no on Hicks.

I'm saying Bellinger, JD Martinez and Josh Hader.  Like many others are.

The Cubs need to sign all three, plus a couple starters (including Imanaga).  This is one of the largest markets in the country and they, supposedly, have been saving money for future use for years now.  I don't care how many qualifiers Hoyer generates during his latest softball interview, the lineup holes are glaring.  Crying poor isn't going to cut it anymore.