Article: Finding a Fit for Alexander Canario

[Jason Ross]

We recently ranked Alexander Canario as North Side Baseball's 10th-best Cubs prospect, but does the right-handed masher have a future with the Cubs? If not, what do we think he commands in a trade?

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The case of Alexander Canario in 2024 is a curious one, The outfielder has had a roller coaster of a year, including a devastating ankle and shoulder injury; tons of hard work and rehab; a return through the minor leagues; and a cup of coffee spent with the Cubs during their playoff push. It's really a feel-good story for the Dominican, who signed with the San Francisco Giants in 2016. He even hit his first MLB grand slam. Despite the good vibes, as we enter the new season, the Cubs will be tasked with deciding how Canario fits into both the present and the long-term plans, and neither are particularly easy choices.

In the interim, there's a role that the powerful slugger can fill, though just how large a role will be determined over the next few months. As it stands, the Cubs outfield has two of three positions clearly spoken-for, with 2022 and 2023 Gold Glove-winning Ian Happ in left field and Seiya Suzuki (who came on like a wrecking ball the final few months last year) in right. That leaves center field as the lone unsettled position in the outfield. Luckily for Canario, while center may not be his long term home, it's likely that he could be useful there in the short term.

Barring some external addition, it's likely that Mike Tauchman will be the Opening Day center fielder (with Pete Crow-Armstrong getting a little extra work in Iowa), but Tauchman comes with the limitation of needing a platoon partner. While Canario didn't really light up left-handed pitching in his injury-hangover 2023 in the minors, in 2022, he posted a .254/.336/.627 line against them across Double A and Triple A, including 13 home runs in just 135 plate appearances. It would make sense, then, for him to platoon with players like Tauchman (a career 96 wRC+ against southpaws) or the aforementioned Happ (a career 93 wRC+ hitter against them). This would give Canario a solid role, and one which he's seemingly capable of filling.

The equation gets a little murky if the Cubs don't plan on letting Tauchman handle center. There are four months between today and Opening Day, and the Cubs may choose to re-sign free agent Cody Bellinger. Conversely, Crow-Armstrong could still be the choice from Jump Street. New manager Craig Counsell is no stranger to playing defensively sound rookies and may push for the Cubs to let the youngster cook at the major-league level instead of simmering in Iowa. Either outcome would probably move Tauchman back into a fourth outfielder role, and would make the pathway for Canario to find playing time a bit more rocky. That's where the issues become far more noticeable, and we need to look no further than last season to see what could transpire.

In 2023, the Cubs broke camp with Nelson Velázquez, an outfielder with a similarly risky profile (though one who was given extended run in 2022 that did not ultimately impress) as a fifth outfield option on the bench. What resulted for "Nelly" was a truncated 32 plate-appearance sample size from April through May--one that led to him being shipped back to Iowa before the season ever truly began. The team did get a fourth option year on Canario, due to the time he's lost to injuries, but he'd still feel fairly locked into the active roster. While Canario is the better prospect than Velázquez was, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Cubs get into a similar outfield crunch if either Bellinger or PCA is with the team in April. It's this type of scenario that would curdle optimism into caution when projecting just how impactful Canario could be on the 2024 roster.

Thus, Canario's true fit might not be on the Chicago Cubs at all, but on another team entirely. As we detailed in our Cubs Top Prospects list, the hard-hitting right-handed hitter has both interesting upside and considerable risk in his profile. It might be a case in which the Cubs are not in a position to give him the developmental time he needs and would, instead, benefit from turning him into something more useful. If the Cubs see him as a useful fourth outfielder, and another club sees a starting one, it would be in the best interests of both Canario and the Cubs to find him a new home. But what kind of trade value would he have? 

Going back to Velázquez for a second, regardless of his 2022 season, the Royals and the Cubs made a deadline trade in which he was swapped for José Cuas, a controllable, 29-year-old right-handed reliever with decent stuff, but somewhat limited upside. Canario, who's younger and has more upside than Nelly had, should bring a stronger return, even if they end up with similar fates. The Cubs could use some high-leverage relievers, so perhaps a team like the Washington Nationals (who are currently projected to start journeyman Stone Garrett in left field) would be interested in a Canario-for-Hunter Harvey-type swap. Other interesting relief targets could be the Marlins Tanner Scott or AJ Puk, if Miami wants to cash in on their relievers for more offense (though I think these are a bit less likely, considering the Fish's needs).

Perhaps a team such as the Seattle Mariners would find him interesting, as well. The M's have struggled to find consistent offensive players throughout their lineup. They've already lost both of their other starting corner outfielders, in free agent Teoscar Hernandez and recently-traded Jarred Kelenic. Even if they end up making a trade for Randy Arozarena (as has been rumored), they could be interested in a swap where Canario is part of a package in exchange for a Bryce Miller or Brian Woo, two starting pitchers whom the Cubs would have uses for.

The Cleveland Guardians could also find his profile interesting. After they waived 2022 playoff sensation Oscar González, the Guards are shockingly thin at the MLB level in the outfield, projecting Myles Straw to start in center and Ramón Laureano in right--both positions that Canario could fill. With the Cubs interested in Shane Bieber, Josh Naylor and even Emmanuel Clase, it would make sense if he was in a package deal (though, clearly, not of the caliber to headline the thing) if something were to be finalized and agreed to with Cleveland. 

The good news is that, regardless of the outcome, Canario is almost assuredly going to be useful to the Chicago Cubs. He's got enough offensive ability that, if the Cubs decided to use him as a fourth outfielder or platoon option, he'd be more than capable of giving the team a few hundred (or more!) useful plate appearances throughout 2024, or providing intriguing injury cover for Happ or Suzuki. However, he also has sufficient trade value that if either the Cubs are put off by the risks he poses or another team is extremely interested, the Chicago front office can turn what may have been a useful "extra" into a "need" position, as well.

What do you think? Will Alexander Canario eventually settle into a role in Chicago, or would it be more useful for the Cubs to cash him in for something they need more?

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[chopsx9]

Hadn't kept tabs on Velazquez but it was nice to see him flashing some power at KC. 14 dongs in 147 PAs.

[LBiittner]

Sounds like a dream trade for KC.

Anyone know if teams work with players like a Cuas during the offseason? I'm sure they see something fixable. 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, chopsx9 said:

Hadn't kept tabs on Velazquez but it was nice to see him flashing some power at KC. 14 dongs in 147 PAs.

Yeah, he had a nice run. That said, it's almost entirely un-repeatable. He posted a .346 ISO. He's either Shohei Ohtani. 14 of his 31 hits (in just 147 PA's) were home runs. Essentially, not ever happening again. I always thought there was a DH there so I hope he can figure something out, seems like a decent enough guy on the outside.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Sounds like a dream trade for KC.

Anyone know if teams work with players like a Cuas during the offseason? I'm sure they see something fixable. 

My guess with Cuas is the Cubs see a path to a RHH killer in Cuas. He's got some really good in-zone whiff% but poor chase%. The Cubs were clearly tinkering with his slider to give it more horizontal movement (aka, righty-killer-stuff) and it just wasn't taking right off the bat. I don't think they were going to use Cuas much if not for injury, and instead have him tinker in AAA, but ended up having their hands forced. I expect they're working with him this offseason on tweaking the slider.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

My guess with Cuas is the Cubs see a path to a RHH killer in Cuas. He's got some really good in-zone whiff% but poor chase%. The Cubs were clearly tinkering with his slider to give it more horizontal movement (aka, righty-killer-stuff) and it just wasn't taking right off the bat. I don't think they were going to use Cuas much if not for injury, and instead have him tinker in AAA, but ended up having their hands forced. I expect they're working with him this offseason on tweaking the slider.

Thanks for explaining. 

He's an interesting pitcher and I hope the cubs can work on improvement 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, LBiittner said:

Thanks for explaining. 

He's an interesting pitcher and I hope the cubs can work on improvement 

Yeah! He's one of those guys I think has some upside. Funky delivery, good GB%...just needs that sweeper. His fastball is shockingly highly graded (likely due to the funk in the delivery). But he can't be fastball only. We'll see what he does, he's a guy I hope they can fix, but wouldn't cry if they don't. Need to dump him? Alright. Try again with the next guy.