Article: What Rhys Hoskins Could (and Couldn't) Do for the Cubs

[Matthew Trueblood]

In an unbearably arid news desert, the latest mirage that has fans pouring sand into their mouths like water is a report connecting the Cubs to the erstwhile Phillies slugger.

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network and FOX Sports, the Cubs and Rhys Hoskins's representation (i.e., the Boras Corporation) have discussed both one- and multi-year deals. Hoskins, of course, is this year's Michael Conforto, a talented player with clear strengths and weaknesses who missed the entire previous season with a severe injury.

Sources: Cubs and Rhys Hoskins’ representatives remain in contact on a possible free-agent deal.

One year and multiyear contract proposals have been discussed. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 5, 2023

It's interesting, right up front, that the sides have considered deals that run longer than a single season. That underscores a key difference between Hoskins and the player to whom he has most often been compared in the first month of his free agency, Cody Bellinger. Unlike Bellinger, who needed to prove he could regain some measure of the greatness he achieved before a couple of seasons marred by injuries, Hoskins isn't coming off a down year. Rather, he's coming off one that was deleted by injury altogether, but in a way that teams can feel confident will be fully behind him by the time he reports to spring training.

Whereas Bellinger had previously-demonstrated MVP upside and humongous upside if he could get back to free agency after showcasing it (soon to be affirmed by a payday around $200 million this winter), Hoskins is much older (31 next March, while Bellinger was 27 last winter) and has a much lower ceiling. On the other hand, he figures to continue to be an above-average hitter with very good power for at least the next few years, so the starting point of any conversation about his services for 2024 is relatively high. He doesn't need to make good, the way Bellinger did, and indeed, there's much less to gain by his trying to do so.

Therefore, a multi-year partnership is plausible. From the Cubs' perspective, it might even be preferable. Because the chance of a huge year that earns him a Kyle Schwarber- or Nick Castellanos-level slugger contract still exists, though, Hoskins (via Boras) is likely to want the right to opt out after a year, just as Conforto had that right built into the two-year deal he signed with the Giants last winter.

Let's set aside the question of what kind of deal would actually come together, for the moment. Instead, we can focus on what Hoskins would bring to the table for the Cubs. Beyond filling the team's current hole at first base, Hoskins would deliver the combination of power and patience that was missing from the lineup for long stretches of last season. For his career, he has a walk rate of 13.5 percent, and he's never been south of 10 percent in a season. He strikes out more than an average hitter, but not by as much as one would expect, given his power and the willingness to work such deep counts.

The specific thing that makes Hoskins a great fit for the Cubs is that he hits the ball hard, in the air, to his pull field with great regularity. That (along, ideally, with a disciplined approach, which he also possesses) is the recipe for sustainable slugging, especially for a right-handed hitter who can take aim at Wrigley Field's shallow left-center power alley. It's how Hoskins has swatted 148 career homers, and why he should continue to be a 30-homer bopper for at least a few more seasons.

Let's illustrate the point, and how he derives the benefits of that approach at a lesser cost than most. Here's a scatter plot of all hitters with at least 250 batted balls since the start of 2022. Along the x-axis, we have the percentage of their batted balls that were pulled at a launch angle of 10 degrees or higher. On the y-axis, we have their average exit velocity on such batted balls.

The red star (enlarged to make sure he stands out) is Hoskins, who ranks higher than most in generating those batted balls and in how hard he hits them when he gets them. To the right of it, in red, note Patrick Wisdom. As you can infer from the identity of that point, there's a cost to selling out for any more pulled fly balls than Hoskins generates. Wisdom strikes out at a rate that perpetually threatens his viability in the everyday lineup. Hoskins is able to keep his relatively low, for someone with so much power, by not overdoing it.

Below and slightly left of the star is another red point, partially obscured. That's Cody Bellinger. He doesn't sell out to pull fly balls as much as Hoskins does, but by trying so hard to avoid striking out, he gives up velocity. He averaged just over 91 miles per hour on his pulled flies, which is still within the realm where pulling it in the air is valuable but not to the point where the ball is usually going to go when you get ahold of it.

Finally, look well to the left of the star, but slightly above it. That red point is Christopher Morel. Far from being obsessed with pulling or launching the ball in a particular angle, Morel is all about maximizing exit velocity. That's why he averages nearly 97 miles per hour when he connects to the pull field and in the air, and that's why most of the balls he hits that way are no-doubt doubles or homers. Because it's not what he's going up looking to do, though, he doesn't do it all that often. 

Hoskins, then, represents the sweet spot. That's true in this very narrow regard, but it's also true in a broader, more important way. He could be the perfect target for the Cubs in free agency, because he fits their situation, their ballpark, and their team approach. If this deal eventually comes to fruition, set expectations a little lower than what we just saw from Bellinger, but slot him right into the cleanup or fifth spot in the batting order and feel confident about it.

What do you think of Hoskins? Would you prefer a one-year deal with him, or a commitment of three years or more, if he's open to doing one without opt-outs? Is there another first baseman you'd prioritize? Leave a comment to further the discussion.

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[Maddux31]

Nice piece. In most years, I would not be in favor of this signing. Hoskins’ defense is so bad that it negates much of what he gives you offensively, and it’s frustrating that the Cubs keep saying they want to build around pitching and defense, but are then willing to insert the likes of Mancini and Wisdom at first because they need a bat with some pop.

That said, if the Cubs can’t sign Ohtani (which I think is a bad idea anyway), and with trade targets such as Juan Soto unlikely to come to fruition, they are backed into a corner and may ended up in a situation where they really need to sign him or risk waiting and hoping the price drops late on 2023 overachiever Cody Bellinger.

[Matthew Trueblood]

54 minutes ago, Maddux31 said:

Nice piece. In most years, I would not be in favor of this signing. Hoskins’ defense is so bad that it negates much of what he gives you offensively, and it’s frustrating that the Cubs keep saying they want to build around pitching and defense, but are then willing to insert the likes of Mancini and Wisdom at first because they need a bat with some pop.

That said, if the Cubs can’t sign Ohtani (which I think is a bad idea anyway), and with trade targets such as Juan Soto unlikely to come to fruition, they are backed into a corner and may ended up in a situation where they really need to sign him or risk waiting and hoping the price drops late on 2023 overachiever Cody Bellinger.

He's definitely a "Don't let the perfect become the enemy of the good" kind of candidate to sign. That, as it happens, is my motto for baseball offseasons. We all fall in love with particular avenues or solutions, and I think it's right and desirable for teams to identify guys they genuinely believe in when making big investments. But often, 12 other teams also want a given guy, and it's important to develop second and third options you like, at the right prices. The sign of a team that consistently wins is always having and nimbly plucking those fallback plans.