Article: One Part of Cubs' Offseason Plan Needs to Be Modernizing the Bullpen

[matto1233]

I won’t speak for anyone else, but when I ponder the collapse of the 2023 Chicago Cubs, I picture the three-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves during the last week of the season. What is there to learn from it?

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Going into that series, the Cubs had a one-game lead over the Miami Marlins for the final Wild Card spot. Three games and three losses later, combined with the Marlins taking two of three from the New York Mets, the Cubs’ playoff chances were all but gone, entering the final series of the season in Milwaukee. 

One thing I won’t forget from that series is how, no matter how many runs the Cubs scored or how big their lead was, it never felt like it was safe. They were a pitching staff that was completely running on fumes, facing a historicly good offense. 

Of course, as we all know, that is exactly how things played out. In game one of that series, the Cubs failed to win after leading 6-0. Their lead in game two was a much less comfortable 3-1, however, they still managed to blow three saves in just that one game. If the Cubs hold those leads and win those games, they would have been playing in the playoffs. 

Sure, there was the Seiya Suzuki play, though I am not sure it would have mattered. The Cubs still would have been facing the top of Atlanta’s order in the ninth inning, with likely only a one run lead. The fact is that the Cubs had absolutely no reliable options to get outs out of the bullpen down the stretch. 

After watching the Philadelphia Phillies eliminate the Braves in four games in the NLDS, I couldn’t help but think about the gap between the bullpen with which the Cubs ended the season and the one that the Phillies have now.

Whereas the Cubs couldn’t hold leads of 6-0 and 3-1 over the Braves in must-win games, the Phillies preserved leads of 3-0 and 3-1. In Game One of the NLDS, the Phillies used seven different pitchers to shut the Braves out at home for the first time all season. In Game Four, they used six pitchers to hold the Braves to just one run and advance to the NLCS. 

Overall, the Phillies used 11 pitchers to cover 35 innings in the series. They gave up just seven runs in those 35 innings. In their late-season series with the Braves, the Cubs also used 11 pitchers, but gave up 18 runs.

One could point to bad luck as the reason why the Cubs struggled with their bullpen so much down the stretch. Adbert Alzolay was hurt. So was Michael Fulmer. Brad Boxberger was either injured or ineffective for essentially the entire season. Keegan Thompson was expected to be a big part of this bullpen, but he struggled to get outs any time he took the mound. 

My gripe with that line of thinking is that bullpens are volatile. Everyone knows this. The Phillies came into 2023 thinking that Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon were going to be major parts of their bullpen, yet neither was with the major-league team by the end of the season, much less recording outs in the playoffs. 

The Phillies gave themselves room for error by going out and acquiring power arms over the offseason. They added Craig Kimbrel, Matt Strahm, and Gregory Soto–all high-strikeout arms, who typically have a higher floor than pitch-to-contact bullpen types. They developed Jeff Hoffman into a swing-and-miss guy by having him double his slider usage. They developed Orion Kerkering into someone whom they trust in the eighth inning of a playoff game, despite only having three career major-league innings. 

Maybe if Boxberger and Fulmer are healthy all year, we’re having a different conversation. Maybe it really is that simple. After all, the Cubs did steal Julian Merryweather from the Blue Jays, and he was fantastic for them at times. But even his 3.52 FIP is worse than four guys that the Phillies have coming out of their playoff bullpen. While Javier Assad gave the team more than anyone could have hoped, he isn’t exactly a power arm, by modernity’s preposterously high standards. 

So, while some may chalk it up to poor injury luck, I say the Cubs didn’t give themselves enough room for error, either by bringing in more reliable arms or by finding more guys on the fringes of rosters or in the minors who could get outs for the big-league team. So much has been written about the new pitching infrastructure of this organization, and we finally started seeing some of that at the major league level this season. Yet, it wasn’t enough, and for this team to make the playoffs next season, it will have to continue to improve. 

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[Tim]

You're also forgetting Hughes. The top five arms going into the season were supposed to be Adbert, Fulmer, Boxberger, Thompson and Hughes. Estrada was hoped to emerge to become a big part of the pen, too. The first five of those guys were all unavailable at the end of the year and Estrada regressed instead of taking the next step.

They should have invested more to start the year. They should have added more than Cuas at the deadline. But they also lost their projected top five relievers at the end of the year - that's much worse than anyone would normally anticipate. 

[Bertz]

I don't really see what any of the above has to do with modernization.  You just wish the pen was better, and that's fine, but blaming a lack of modernization betrays a misunderstanding of the actual issues.  The Cubs had the 4th hardest throwing bullpen in baseball this year, this isn't the soft tossing group of like 2019.  They also have plenty of their own Hoffman-esque success stories, such as Merryweather.

The issue is simply that there weren't a ton of resources allocated there last winter or this summer.  Ross was playing a reliever or two short for most of the year.  Like the team did some fun things to modernize Cuas' pitches, and I'm excited for him next year, but overhauling a guy's repertoire takes time and you don't really have time on August 1st.  Cuas should have been the other guy, not the only guy.  Or last winter, if they'd added a $10M arm like Kimbrel or David Robertson instead of a $5M arm like Fulmer, he likely doesn't have those prolonged struggles from the first 3rd of the season as he figures out his new pitches.

[matto1233]

4 hours ago, Tim said:

You're also forgetting Hughes. The top five arms going into the season were supposed to be Adbert, Fulmer, Boxberger, Thompson and Hughes. Estrada was hoped to emerge to become a big part of the pen, too. The first five of those guys were all unavailable at the end of the year and Estrada regressed instead of taking the next step.

They should have invested more to start the year. They should have added more than Cuas at the deadline. But they also lost their projected top five relievers at the end of the year - that's much worse than anyone would normally anticipate. 

Addressing the guys you listed there:

Alzolay and Fulmer combined for 121 innings this year. Given the injury histories there, I don’t think it’s fair to say the Cubs couldn’t have anticipated there’d be periods where they weren’t available, and 121 innings is a fair chunk IMO  

Did Thompson regress or was he misevaluated? FIP, xERA, etc. did not love his 2022 performance. 

Hughes (who you are correct, I completely forgot about) had a better 2022 by those metrics than Thompson did, but the advanced numbers still predicted some regression there. Fair to expect he could have eaten many more innings than he did, though. 

Estrada is an intriguing piece, but if you’re relying on him entering a season as a major piece of your bullpen, and not a “it’d be great if this guy performs” type, I think that’s a problem. 

Boxberger is definitely fair to think he would have been able to give the team much more than he did. That felt like a very safe, high floor signing. 

I think we’re mostly on the same page with it, and you articulated it a bit better than I did. Did they have some poor performance and injury bad luck? Absolutely. I’m not disagreeing there. But everyone has that stuff happen, and to your point at the end, if they had invested in the bullpen just a LITTLE BIT more, they would have had more options to cover those innings rather than watching Jose Cuas develop a love/hate relationship with his slider in a must win September game. The Phillies had that investment. The Cubs did not. 

[Bertz]

I think the other thing about the bullpen is for as highly visible as the meltdown was last year, it seems to be in a position to fix it fairly painlessly.  I'd look to add two arms: one veteran in FA (ideally on a one year deal) and one via trade (ideally with MiLB options).  For example, something like David Robertson in FA and a trade with Miami (who have a bullpen overloaded with lefties) for AJ Puk.

CL - Alzolay*

SU - Robertson 

SU - Merryweather

MR - Cuas*

MR - Puk*

MR - Leiter

LR - Smyly

LR - Assad*

Guys with a * have minor league options, so if things go sideways they can be sent to Iowa to clean things up.  This scenario has the three stuff monsters (Palencia, Little, Estrada) plus the heroes of the 2022 bullpen (Thompson and Hughes) slated to open at Iowa.  So there *should* be good reinforcements to keep the pen fresh throughout the year.  Then again I thought the reinforcements going into last year were strong and we saw how hard and fast attrition can strike.

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Tim said:

You're also forgetting Hughes. The top five arms going into the season were supposed to be Adbert, Fulmer, Boxberger, Thompson and Hughes. Estrada was hoped to emerge to become a big part of the pen, too. The first five of those guys were all unavailable at the end of the year and Estrada regressed instead of taking the next step.

They should have invested more to start the year. They should have added more than Cuas at the deadline. But they also lost their projected top five relievers at the end of the year - that's much worse than anyone would normally anticipate. 

I agree they should have added more arms, and they also pitched Adbert/Leiter/Merryweather to death from June through August due to the lack of depth and I think those guys just wore down, maybe even Fulmer too.  They just didn't have enough depth.  They need to anticipate injuries will happen through the year and have to the depth to get through it.  I think they did have a bit more bad luck than average with so many guys injured or regress early in the year.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Stratos

[CubUgly]

22 hours ago, Tim said:

You're also forgetting Hughes. The top five arms going into the season were supposed to be Adbert, Fulmer, Boxberger, Thompson and Hughes. Estrada was hoped to emerge to become a big part of the pen, too. The first five of those guys were all unavailable at the end of the year and Estrada regressed instead of taking the next step.

They should have invested more to start the year. They should have added more than Cuas at the deadline. But they also lost their projected top five relievers at the end of the year - that's much worse than anyone would normally anticipate. 

Also,  not sure how much they expected to get from Cody Heuer, as it turned out of course he re-injured himself, but I do recall the timetable for getting him back seemed to be always listed as June or July.  He was throwing 100 mph in the minors before he got re-injured, although the actual  pitching numbers that mattered were not very good.

[Billy62]

    I think the bullpen is our weakest link. It needs to be overhauled. What the Cubs are willing to spend on it seems to be the question of the day. Some nights when they came in it was akin to throwing gasoline on a fire. Very hard to watch. Or your starter just threw six innings of no run, 2-hit baseball, and the reliever comes in, walks the bases loaded before he grooves a scorcher down the line, or much worse. We will need some new faces and more importantly arms in the pen in 2024.