Fantasy football keeper question

[raw]

So won my long-time PPR keeper league for the first time in like 10 years. It's a league where you keep 1 player each year, but you lose the pick in the round you selected the player you kept. But you cannot keep anyone drafted in the first 2 rounds.  Ex: keep a player drafted in the 9th round, he counts as your 9th round pick the following year.  If you keep a great player that was somehow undrafted, you lose your last pick (15th round).

So being that my team was really good, I have a pretty tough decision on who to keep. 

Amon Ra St. Brown- 4th round

Josh Jacobs- 5th round

Brandon Aiyuk- 7th round

Rhamondre Stevenson- 9th round

Justin Fields- 11th round

While those middle guys are solid value, I'm torn between St. Brown and Fields, unless someone has a convincing reason for one of those others.  

St. Brown has an ADP of early to mid 20s. I would lose the 37th overall pick for him (reached a bit because I knew he'd have a big year), but with my 1st two picks, that'd give me 3 top 25 players potentially. 

Fields has an ADP of late 6th/early 7th round, so is more of a steal, but not as good positional value. And that's about where I'd take a QB anyway.

[icefrogg]

Amon Ra St. Brown - 4th round: St. Brown had a breakout season and is expected to have a bright future. However, using a 4th round pick on him might be a bit of a reach considering his ADP. You could potentially get him in a later round and use your 4th round pick on another high-value player.

Josh Jacobs - 5th round: Jacobs is a solid running back, but his value might not be as high as some other options available. Using a 5th round pick on him could be a good move, but keep in mind that there might be other running backs with better value available in that round.

Brandon Aiyuk - 7th round: Aiyuk showed promise in his rookie season but had a bit of a down year in the second season. However, he still has the potential to be a valuable wide receiver. Using a 7th round pick on him could be a good value.

Rhamondre Stevenson - 9th round: Stevenson is a rookie running back who showed potential in limited opportunities. Using a 9th round pick on him could be a steal, especially if he gets more playing time and becomes a significant contributor in the future.

Justin Fields - 11th round: Fields is a highly

Considering the ADPs and positional values, Amon Ra St. Brown and Justin Fields seem to be the most enticing options. St. Brown has the potential to be a top wide receiver, and getting him in the 4th round could be a solid choice. On the other hand, Justin Fields in the 11th round is a great steal, and having a strong starting quarterback is crucial for a successful fantasy team.

[JD94]

For me, it’s between ARSB and Stevenson. I lean ARSB, but man, Stevenson in the 9th round is insane value. Now that I’m thinking about it, I’m 50/50 between the 2. Personally I wouldn’t keep Fields. You could grab Herbert or Lawrence around the 5th/6th round and be fine at QB. 
 

I think I would go Stevenson. He has RB1 upside and you’re getting that in the 9th round. RB is the most sacred position in FF. Get a stud RB with your first pick to go with him, and you have a huge advantage the rest of your draft. You can load up on WR and whatever else after your first pick. 

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

On 7/21/2023 at 5:41 PM, JD94 said:

For me, it’s between ARSB and Stevenson. I lean ARSB, but man, Stevenson in the 9th round is insane value. Now that I’m thinking about it, I’m 50/50 between the 2. Personally I wouldn’t keep Fields. You could grab Herbert or Lawrence around the 5th/6th round and be fine at QB. 
 

I think I would go Stevenson. He has RB1 upside and you’re getting that in the 9th round. RB is the most sacred position in FF. Get a stud RB with your first pick to go with him, and you have a huge advantage the rest of your draft. You can load up on WR and whatever else after your first pick. 

Two reasons to avoid Stevenson: it's PPR, and RBs don't have as much long-term value because running backs.  That said, all I'm certain of is that Josh Jacobs is not the right answer.  Any of the others are debatable, and might just depend on how this particular league tends to draft.  

[UMFan83]

I have to make my keeper choices tonight and could really use some feedback.

For some context:  12 teams, 0.5 PPR, superflex (basically 2 QB) start 3 RB and 4 WR.  QB passing TDs are 6 points.  It's a very big QB league.  Unfortunately I don't have a good QB keeper option because Kyler tore his ACL and Fields was a keeper last year (can only keep 1 consecutive year).

Here are my best keeper options and what round I would lose a pick in if I kept.  I have to pick 2

Barkley (Round 3)

AJ Brown (Round 4)

Garrett Wilson (undrafted so Round 8 )

Ridley (undrafted so Round 9 )

Pacheco (Round 16)

 

I also have Jefferson (R1) and if I really wanted a QB Pickett (R13) but nah.

 

Wilson I'm almost certainly keeping.  In my mind its between Brown and Ridley.  Brown gives me WR1 value from Round 4 but he was unusually healthy last year and D. Smith took some of his value away later in the year.  Ridley is a huge wild card but has WR 1 potential with a 9th round pick, but his floor is riskier due to the 2 years of layoff and the Jags pass catching options.

I suppose Barkey is an option too, but I don't trust him after seeing him wear down at the end of last year.

So really unless someone feels differently its between using  a 4th round pick on AJ Brown or a 9th round pick on Calvin Ridley.  Thoughts??