Article: Nygaard Mock Draft v. 1.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Mock Draft Season is upon us. We're still a solid seven weeks from having any clarity, but it's always fun to start to speculate. Last year's draft got crazy early. Even crazier than normal when you consider two pitchers went in the Top 7 and barely anyone saw a pitcher going in the Top 15. Other players fell to teams who were elated to take someone they never thought they'd have a chance to select.  

1.) Pirates – Dylan Crews, OF, LSU - Arguably the best hitting prospect since Bryce Harper, Crews should be a no-doubt pick for Pittsburgh.

2.) Nationals – Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU - This is the highest Washington has drafted since having back-to-back first overall picks in 2009 and 2010. Skenes is the best pitcher available by a relatively wind margin and the Nationals would be wise to add such a highly regarded prospect.

3.) Tigers – Walker Jenkins, OF, North Carolina prep -  Remarkably, this is going to be the fifth year out of the last six that the Tigers have had a top five pick. And they have very little to show for it. They’ve missed on both high school and college pitchers. They’ve had a little more success recently with prep hitters and Jenkins is the highest-ceiling hitter available. 

4.) Rangers – Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida - The Rangers have went the collegiate route the last four years and the SEC in three of those four years. Langford fits the bill and is more than deserving of being picked here… or higher. 

5.) Twins – Max Clark, OF, Indiana prep - There are certainly reasons and rumblings why the Twins would go a different direction here. But, at this point, it’s more of a “just make the easy choice” and that’s whichever of these top five names are available. The Twins have definitely been a college-bat lean recently. Langford would likely be preferred. Is this too early for Teel? Gut says yes (in late May anyway). 

6.) A’s – Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt - The A’s are a mess and a team I’ve never been able to peg down - which is ok because they’ve struggled to hit on first-round picks. Bradfield has game-changing speed and the A’s have the third most stolen-base attempts in the league. Bradfield can help with that.

7.) Reds – Kyle Teel, C, Virginia - With the exception of Nick Lodolo in 2019, the Reds have gone hitter each year dating back to Hunter Greene in 2017. Either Chase Dollander or Rhett Lowder would make sense here too.

8.) Royals – Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest - It’s hard to really see a trend with the Royals. They’ve taken from each of the four demographics in the first round the last four years. Lowder has done well for himself and is the second college pitcher drafted here.

9.) Rockies – Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee - I’ve long believed the Rockies best chances to add difference-making pitchers come in the draft. Dollander hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype, but he’s still a Top 10 pick. 

10.) Marlins – Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi - The Jacob Berry selection last year was a head-scratcher to me. This would be a chance to get it right.

11.) Angels – Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon - A small-school hitter is one of the few things the Angels have done well in identifying in the draft lately. 

12.) Diamondbacks – Arjun Nimmala, SS, Florida prep - Consider me someone who thinks Nimmala breaks into the Top 10. Arizona has gone the prep route in four of the last five years.

13.) Cubs – Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford - Maybe he doesn’t stick at shortstop, but the bat plays at second base. There’s a mix of players here would could go anywhere in the next 20 picks so it’s going to be a lot of mixing team preference with price tags.

14.) Red Sox – Colin Houck, SS, Georgia prep - Houck seems to be doing well for himself as the draft gets closer. And the Red Sox have gone this route recently. 

15.) White Sox – Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida - It seems like it’s always college pitchers for the White Sox.

16.) Giants – Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Virginia prep - Maybe too high for Eldridge, but they may have reached for Reggie Crawford last year too. 

17.) Orioles – Noble Meyer, RHP, Oregon prep - The Orioles are in a good position to add to their depth of prospects and here the top-rated prep pitcher falls into their lap.

18.) Brewers – Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland - The profile of a hitter who probably can’t stick at shortstop and his last name is Shaw. Sure seems to fit with the Brewers. 

At this point in time it becomes a “here are some other guys I think go in the first round.”

19.) Rays – Thomas White, LHP, Massachusetts prep 

20.) Blue Jays – Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU

21.) Cardinals – Kevin McGonigle, SS, Pennsylvania prep

22.) Mariners – Blake Mitchell, C, Texas prep

23.) Guardians – Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech

24.) Braves – Brock Wilken, 2B, Wake Forest

25.) Padres – Aidan Miller, 3B, Florida prep

26.) Yankees – George Lombard Jr., SS, Florida prep

27.) Phillies – Colt Emerson, SS, Ohio prep

28.) Astros – Chase Davis, OF, Arizona

29.) Mariners – Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic

30.) Mariners – Colton Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State

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[Jeremy Nygaard]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I can’t discount the Troy/Shaw/Productive College SS route because its a solid enough way to draft, but it does feel boring. Boring’s not always bad and it’s a noisy draft but, if going this route esp, hopefully there’s some big swings for power and LHH by Cubs later. Wilken might make sense just to get the power ball rolling, and I wouldn’t complain if they were to take the first round swing at Chase Davis’ LH power and CF potential 

The Mariners doubling up HS C prospects is interesting. Harry Ford’s a beast but Mitchell’s probably the better defender

Houck’s grown on me, didn’t realize he was also an SEC QB recruit

 

I don't disagree with the boring feel at all. Loud tools are always more exciting! That's kind of how I viewed Neto last year and he's been amazing. 

Counterpoint: when the loud tool is power - which doesn't always translate - you're left with someone far less usable than going the productive college shortstop route.

I don't know if Stewart to the Mariners is a good match, but that feels like the area where he should come off the board. 

Houck will be interesting because football is definitely an option and I'd have to believe the money is better as a college (and then potentially professional) QB.

 

[Named After Maddux]

1 hour ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I don't disagree with the boring feel at all. Loud tools are always more exciting! That's kind of how I viewed Neto last year and he's been amazing. 

Counterpoint: when the loud tool is power - which doesn't always translate - you're left with someone far less usable than going the productive college shortstop route.

I don't know if Stewart to the Mariners is a good match, but that feels like the area where he should come off the board. 

Houck will be interesting because football is definitely an option and I'd have to believe the money is better as a college (and then potentially professional) QB.

 

Good mock, Jeremy.

FYI, Colin Houck had offers to play QB from eight programs (including Arkansas and Florida State), but he committed to Mississippi State only to play baseball. Still will require a decent bonus I'd imagine to beat out SEC NIL money.

[Hrubes20]

Give me the toolsy guy in round 1. With the 2nd pick not being until 68, the risk is real that the guys with legit upside may be gone. 

[CubinNY]

Very Cubs like to draft a guy who’s not going to be a star. Maybe one isn’t there at 13. I would roll the dice and gamble a bit looking for a game changer. 

Edited May 27, 2023 by CubinNY