PECOTA standings released

[Brock Beauchamp]

Unlike ZiPS, PECOTA has Milwaukee and St Louis basically neck-and-neck at 87-ish wins. The Cubs come in a few games under .500 with 77-ish wins with the rest of the division being (expectedly) terrible with 70 or fewer wins.

 

Thoughts?

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[Rob]

I think that's probably a couple games low on the Cubs, but well within the fat part of the probability distribution. I'm thinking we've got a 79ish win team on the average, but with some potential to get up to 87 or so with enough luck on health and player development / bouncebacks

 

We aren't the 2015 Cubs. I don't see the youth explosion. But there's a nice combination of vets who have some upside compared to their recent performance.

[Cubswin11]

I think that’s fairish, one of STL or Milwaukee probably breaks 90 (I’d guess STL). Think our number is fine, I think our floor of being complete horsefeathers is low and think 75 wins is the floor and there’s ~85 win upside if we hit on a lot of stuff. pirates and reds both seem high, especially with fewer division games. Both are 100+ loss teams potentially.

[PackLandVA]

Did the window close on the White Sox “youth explosion” before it could actually explode?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Did the window close on the White Sox “youth explosion” before it could actually explode?

Pretty much. They still have a nice core but very little depth behind it, which is why projection systems are so low on them.