Drew Smyly Coming Back?

[Bertz]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not the more exotic trade I might dream of seeing, but I like Smyly and prefer him to most(maybe all?) the remaining FA options. When he was in discussions before the offseason the speculation was in the 1/8 to 2/14 range, wonder what it is now.

[Bertz]

Smyly is aiming lower than I would have liked after Taillon was the top guy. That said Smyly is obviously solid, he took well to the team's systems and coaching, and I'd imagine it's a fairly efficient signing. If signing Smyly instead of someone a little better is what lets Jed get Conforto at DH instead of e.g. Matt Carpenter that's a win.

 

Still really curious about the LT. Smyly would be another ambiguous sign about how they're approaching it. After Swanson the team has just under $30M to the tax. Smyly likely eats up $8-10M. On the one hand, that's technically enough for a bat at <$10M, a very cheap catcher, a cheap reliever, and leaving s few mill for the deadline. But on the other Smyly seems like a weird splurge if you're going to be running so tight everywhere else?

[Gilby]

Smyly in front of this defense especially is fine. But yeah, hopefully this leaves room for Conforto. I'd be a little disappointed if it's Smyly + Mancini

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Still really curious about the LT. Smyly would be another ambiguous sign about how they're approaching it. After Swanson the team has just under $30M to the tax. Smyly likely eats up $8-10M. On the one hand, that's technically enough for a bat at <$10M, a very cheap catcher, a cheap reliever, and leaving s few mill for the deadline. But on the other Smyly seems like a weird splurge if you're going to be running so tight everywhere else?

 

Don't forget extending Hoerner. My hope is that there isn't much plan to leave a few mil for the deadline, the Padres showed you can do a lot and still stay under, and if they're competitive and wanting to add maybe that's the motivation to push over the line. The best version of this is probably Madrigal for a reliever, Smyly, a bat for ~10M, and whichever catcher you end up with(none of the options should be > 5M).

[Bertz]

Still really curious about the LT. Smyly would be another ambiguous sign about how they're approaching it. After Swanson the team has just under $30M to the tax. Smyly likely eats up $8-10M. On the one hand, that's technically enough for a bat at <$10M, a very cheap catcher, a cheap reliever, and leaving s few mill for the deadline. But on the other Smyly seems like a weird splurge if you're going to be running so tight everywhere else?

 

Don't forget extending Hoerner. My hope is that there isn't much plan to leave a few mil for the deadline, the Padres showed you can do a lot and still stay under, and if they're competitive and wanting to add maybe that's the motivation to push over the line. The best version of this is probably Madrigal for a reliever, Smyly, a bat for ~10M, and whichever catcher you end up with(none of the options should be > 5M).

 

Yeah good call, there's essentially no way to fit a Hoerner extension in at this point if we're looking to stay under the LT. That's a good sign, Jed laid it on pretty thick that he'd like to accomplish that. I guess something like this would technically work but doesn't feel very realistic?

 

Smyly ~$7M

Hoerner ~$8M

Catcher ~$2M

DH ~$8M

RP ~$2M

[Little Slide Rooter]

I do like Smyly, but I really liked what I saw from Thompson, Steele, and Wesneski last year to the point that we could dream on one of them emerging as a Burnes or Woodruff type of unheralded prospect turned ace. And between Alzolay, Sampson, Killian, and Assad, back end depth is something we have plenty of.

[Tim]

Smyly pretty much takes trading for a SP off the table. Which is okay, I guess.

 

I wonder what promises they make to him about his role in order to get him back.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[SaorsaDaonnan]

I like Thompson as a nice multi-inning relief option.

 

And, I see Hendricks as a "worth trying but health-dubious" #5 starter at this point, for 2023 anyway, with Wesneski, Sampson, and Assad first in line to replace him in the event of a failed/delayed shoulder recovery....or, conversely, in the event of a nice recovery and deadline deal to a clearer contender.

 

So I like the idea of a #4 starter who is also reported to be a good clubhouse guy, which Smyly is. Even more, I like the way that Smyly returned to the Cubs after they helped him get his career back on track, and that he was specifically regarded as a good clubhouse member of OUR '22 squad. Those things point toward positive feelings towards the Cubs org and its current players, which in turn implies positive vibes for '23 if you ask me. I don't by any means think Smyly is the only person who could succeed in this #4 role, but I love that he already likes our guys, doesn't cost any prospects, and is decent and affordable. And given the questions around Hendricks, I definitely want another starter from outside the current org...very preferably, one who does not cost prospects.

[Cubswin11]

I do like Smyly, but I really liked what I saw from Thompson, Steele, and Wesneski last year to the point that we could dream on one of them emerging as a Burnes or Woodruff type of unheralded prospect turned ace. And between Alzolay, Sampson, Killian, and Assad, back end depth is something we have plenty of.

I think there’s enough starts/innings to go around for all of them and not be held back. Steele, Thompson, Wesneski all probably have a relative innings limit this year still, so protecting them a bit with adding Smyly makes sense. Thompson may be more a RP/2-3 inning guy too. We might not have TOR guys but we certainly are building solid pitching depth of all above average SPs with some guys having a higher ceiling.