5/18 - Bucs @ Cubs

[UMFan83]

3-4 in our last 7 against the Pirates with a +32 RD. Their pythag record over those games should be 6.3-0.7

 

To put it differently: the Pirates are averaging 2.1 runs per game over their last 7 with the Cubs. The Cubs are averaging 6.7 runs per game and the Pirates are 4-3 in that stretch

[Derwood]

3-4 in our last 7 against the Pirates with a +32 RD. Their pythag record over those games should be 6.3-0.7

 

To put it differently: the Pirates are averaging 2.1 runs per game over their last 7 with the Cubs. The Cubs are averaging 6.7 runs per game and the Pirates are 4-3 in that stretch

 

if that includes that 21-0 game, the sample size is blown up

[jersey cubs fan]

Gotta win 1 of next 2 to avoid going back under .400

[UMFan83]

3-4 in our last 7 against the Pirates with a +32 RD. Their pythag record over those games should be 6.3-0.7

 

To put it differently: the Pirates are averaging 2.1 runs per game over their last 7 with the Cubs. The Cubs are averaging 6.7 runs per game and the Pirates are 4-3 in that stretch

 

if that includes that 21-0 game, the sample size is blown up

 

No crap that’s the entire point of my post. The Cubs have blown the Pirates out 3 times by a combined 37-0 and lost to them 4 times by a combined score of 15-10. It’s strange and quirky.

[Bertz]

I'm curious what other teams are thinking of Smyly. On the one hand his peripherals are good and his velo is up, on the other hand he's been basically 5 and dive every outing but one. If the trade deadline were tomorrow does he bring back a #3 starter return or closer to a #5 starter return?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm curious what other teams are thinking of Smyly. On the one hand his peripherals are good and his velo is up, on the other hand he's been basically 5 and dive every outing but one. If the trade deadline were tomorrow does he bring back a #3 starter return or closer to a #5 starter return?

 

Is his velo up? Fangraphs doesn't have the Pitch Info section for this year, but their other Pitch Type section has his fastball lower than both 2021 and 2020.

 

My guess is that teams are probably going to see him more as a 5 unless there's a meaningful uptick. He's getting ripped by righties and he's not getting a lot of K's either. With the new playoff format maybe there's some inflation through having few true sellers though.

[Bertz]

I'm curious what other teams are thinking of Smyly. On the one hand his peripherals are good and his velo is up, on the other hand he's been basically 5 and dive every outing but one. If the trade deadline were tomorrow does he bring back a #3 starter return or closer to a #5 starter return?

 

Is his velo up? Fangraphs doesn't have the Pitch Info section for this year, but their other Pitch Type section has his fastball lower than both 2021 and 2020.

 

My guess is that teams are probably going to see him more as a 5 unless there's a meaningful uptick. He's getting ripped by righties and he's not getting a lot of K's either. With the new playoff format maybe there's some inflation through having few true sellers though.

 

I probably should have said something more like "throwing harder" than "velo up," although it'll most likely end up there. Pitch Info thinks he's switched from a 4 seamer to a sinker, and has his velo flat YoY. Since sinkers are usually a bit softer, it's likely that he's throwing a bit harder. Plus his cutter velo is up a bit too.

Throw in the fact that we're only in May and velo tends to peak over the summer, and he's definitely throwing harder.

 

I do tend to agree that he'd be valued closer to a #5 as of today. League average innings are really valuable in the rotation, but I think that's more true when guys are typically going that third time through the order. Hopefully they stretch him out more and performance holds.

[David]

3-4 in our last 7 against the Pirates with a +32 RD. Their pythag record over those games should be 6.3-0.7

 

To put it differently: the Pirates are averaging 2.1 runs per game over their last 7 with the Cubs. The Cubs are averaging 6.7 runs per game and the Pirates are 4-3 in that stretch

 

if that includes that 21-0 game, the sample size is blown up

 

No crap that’s the entire point of my post. The Cubs have blown the Pirates out 3 times by a combined 37-0 and lost to them 4 times by a combined score of 15-10. It’s strange and quirky.

 

horsefeathering derwood

[Derwood]

 

if that includes that 21-0 game, the sample size is blown up

 

No crap that’s the entire point of my post. The Cubs have blown the Pirates out 3 times by a combined 37-0 and lost to them 4 times by a combined score of 15-10. It’s strange and quirky.

 

horsefeathering derwood

 

The point was dumb

[David]

 

No crap that’s the entire point of my post. The Cubs have blown the Pirates out 3 times by a combined 37-0 and lost to them 4 times by a combined score of 15-10. It’s strange and quirky.

 

horsefeathering derwood

 

The point was dumb

 

eh. your post was definitely dumber.

[Derwood]

 

horsefeathering derwood

 

The point was dumb

 

eh. your post was definitely dumber.