So...Now What?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sahadev did a Twitter mailbag, which was interesting but also a little confusing and I’m not sure how much I can read into it: https://theathletic.com/2848654/2021/09/26/how-will-the-cubs-fill-out-their-2022-starting-rotation-can-they-find-offensive-help-too/

 

- He fairly casually says the payroll could “conservatively” be in the 140-160 million range, “doubling” the current guaranteed payroll which will be between 70-80 million.

 

- However, he spends multiple questions suggesting that Hoyer will be focused on value signings and not at the top of the market, in particular he name checks Stroman, Ray, Gausman, and Correa as players they won’t be spending on. While I get that in the sense of setting expectations with the average Twitter user if nothing else, he also seems to think there’s no reasonable way to the Cubs being more than long shot playoff contenders until 2024, which is categorically wrong, IMO. He uses the example of being ready in the competitive cycle go outside your comfort level like they did with Lester, but 1) they should be to that point faster than he seems to think, 2) this framing misunderstands some of the benefit of making big additions(Lester helped win a division in 2020 even when not at his peak), and 3) you can only spend so much money if value is your overriding concern.

 

- Despite my disagreement on the longer term chances, he does make the good point that this is the first year in a long while where the Cubs enter the offseason in a different stage of the competitive cycle. This means good things for certain parts of the free agent market(they can offer playing time other teams might not, especially to buy low and/or short term targets), but less good things for others(he mentions Scherzer as a player who won’t consider a team with uncertain competitive chances).

 

- Similar to a lot of the conversation here, he thinks Hoerner isn’t likely to be considered the every day SS(and therefore one should be prioritized this offseason), but that he’ll get an every day workload between positional versatility, days off and the likely DH requiring more PA to be absorbed.

[Gilby]

Yeah Sahadev has been pretty adamant on the Onto Waveland podcast too that there will be no long term, $100 million deals. But then they always talk about how much money is available. It seems like there will be at least one long term deal in there, even if it's someone like Castillanos who might get 9 figures but still quite a bit less than the top shortstops and pitchers. Going the extreme volume route doesn't really make sense with 40 man considerations.

[Bertz]

I'm a big fan of Sahadev, but unfortunately he's not particularly connected for rumors and such. I think he and the coaches/Ross are close, so I'd trust him on the Hoerner bit, but unfortunately you pretty much have to go to Jesse Rogers or Patrick Mooney for Jed level stuff.

[CubinNY]

It sounds like the Cubs are targeting the types of players who wind up signing contracts in January. It could be a very long offseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It sounds like the Cubs are targeting the types of players who wind up signing contracts in January. It could be a very long offseason.

 

Between recent offseason trends and the CBA negotiations, I think very little activity will happen before January anywhere.

[Bertz]

I'm curious what the FO's plan for Adrian Sampson is this offseason. He's not going to maintain his 2.87 ERA, but if you think he can maintain an ERA under 5, having a guy like him stashed at Iowa as like the #7 starter is kind of valuable.

 

There are numerous guys like him floating around at any time, but very few of them have minor league options remaining. So once you call them up in-season, you've basically burned them. With Sampson, he'll have two more years of options left.

 

So like, is that modest luxury worth the 40 man spot in an offseason where we could really use it? I'd lean yes but I don't think it's a slam dunk either way. I also wonder if it might serve as a tea leaf for whether the #5 starter spot is going to be handed to Alzolay et al or whether they're going to have to battle a vet for it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not sure I see enough upside in Sampson to value him being able to fill an emergency starter role in 2023 on top of 2022. He gives up home runs by the handful, doesn't strike people out, and wasn't particularly good at preventing runs in AAA. If that spot becomes necessary I'm okay with it going to some NRI(even if they only can do that in 2021) or existing org depth like Abbott or Swarmer as much as I am with Sampson.