2020 Draft Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

https://twitter.com/micah_johnson3/status/1243371681873346560?s=21

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On top of that, teams and agents expect fewer high school players to sign this year, with fewer opportunities and less money to go around.

 

“What is MLB trying to do?” asked one agent. “Get as many athletes into the game as possible? What’s going to happen when you have five rounds? Kids are going to play basketball.

 

“For amateurs to just always be the sacrificial lamb in the draft or international draft. Like, guys, it’s one thing after another over the last decade on this, to overcompensate.”

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-mlbpa-deal-shortens-2020-mlb-draft-could-delay-international-signing-day/

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Prospects Live mock draft: https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/mlb-2020-mock-draft-2020

 

16. Chicago Cubs

Max Meyer, RHP

School: Minnesota

PL Contributor: Alex

It’s arguable that nobody in this class has helped their stock as much as Max Meyer since the end of the 2019 season. Between a dominant stint for Team USA, a dominant start to the season and increased use of his changeup, Meyer has been one of baseball’s top stories. There are fair concerns about whether Meyer is a starter long term but nobody questions Meyer’s ability to be an impact player in the majors. He is still learning to throw a changeup that has flashed average but sits fringe and his slight 6 foot, 185-pound frame draws durability concerns. That said, Meyer sat 97-99 with his fastball this year early in starts and held mid 90s velocity deep into games. His power slider has sat 91-93 and held 87-91 deep into starts. Some see Meyer as a mid rotation starter, who will continue to develop his changeup, others see a high end SP4 who doesn’t need a changeup, some see a multi-inning reliever fireman type like an early Hader. Some even see a dynamic closer. Everyone sees a valuable player in whichever role he ends up in, who should move quickly, has shown the ability to improve consistently and with strong makeup. A great fit for pitcher needy Cubs system.

 

51. Chicago Cubs

Aaron Sabato, 1B

School: North Carolina

PL Contributor: Alex

A draft eligible sophomore from UNC, Sabato was hidden in cold-weather New York as a prep bat, but exploded onto the seen his freshman year. He set the North Carolina freshman home run record with 18 and tied Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager for the most XBH in a season 44! Sabato has started slowly in 2020 but is still slashing .292/.478/.708 with 13 XBH (7 HR) in just 65 at bats. He’s also managed to raise his walk percentage by 10 points, while shaving three percent off of his K rate. Sabato is limited athletically, with below average defense at 1B and well below average foot speed, which makes his draft stock trickier to predict. But he has absolutely absurd raw power, with some seeing 80 grade and nobody questions his ability to hit and hit for power. Sabato is essentially a middle class man’s Torkelson and has a profile the Cubs have liked in the past.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jeff (Georgia):

 

With a shortened draft, do you see teams making up for the lost picks with a lot more undrafted free agent signings - either college juniors/seniors or international? How do you see that working - a "free for all" with players trying to use multiple teams as leverage to get as close as they can to the $20K max signing bonus?

 

Kyle Glaser: I suspect there will be a lot of undrafted free agent signings, mostly college seniors whose conferences are saying they won't be giving returning seniors any aid and juniors who know they might get squeezed out of playing time next year. What's going to be most interesting is the teams that have already committed to paying their minor leaguers higher salaries (Giants, Cubs, Blue Jays) will likely have an advantage because if everyone is capped at the same bonus, being able to get more money as a minor leaguer will be a separator in which team you choose.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA did their Mock 3.0. https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

Lot of disclaimers:

 

It’s an odd time to be doing a mock, and honestly, there’s not a ton of information linking players to specific teams outside of the first few picks. That makes sense, considering we don’t yet know how many rounds the draft will be, or even when the draft is going to take place.

 

So it goes without saying that this mock draft steers heavily into the range of speculation and educated guesses more than any hard and fast information tying players to teams outside of the first four or five picks.

 

However, we have spent the last few weeks and months talking to area scouts, crosscheckers and scouting directors about the realistic ranges that players are going to be taken during the 2020 draft. I would urge readers to think of this mock draft as a more holistic overview of where the 2020 talent is stacking up at this point, rather than checking your favorite team’s selection and walking away with confidence that the player will be drafted in that spot.

 

...

 

We’re also anticipating more difficulty with mock drafts this year even as we approach the draft itself. With less information available via ‘scouting the scouts’ at games, things should be more challenging. Still, we’re hoping to provide as much actual value as we can at this point and we’ll continue to gather information every day until the draft takes place.

 

They gave the Cubs arguably the top non-OF prep prospect:

 

16 Tyler Soderstrom Turlock (Calif.) HS C

 

Notes:

Carlos: Soderstrom has a lot of buzz in the 10-20 range and I feel pretty confident that someone in that range is going to like the upside of his bat and power too much to let him slide. While he might not be a catcher long-term, everyone loves the bat.

 

JJ: I will be interested if the likely arrival of robo-umps will help Soderstrom stay at catcher, but the bat plays whether he’s a catcher or somewhere else.

 

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Robert Hassell - the two prep OF with the best hit tool amongst the many talented first round prep OF prospects in this year’s draft - went in the next two picks.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This is for next year’s draft, but interesting. I think the last person to re-classify 2 years was Bryce Harper.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

BA has Teel ranked 91st in their top 400 draft prospects.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

16) Cubs: Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State

Excellent defensive skills behind the dish combined with good raw power from both sides of the plate have Bailey primed to go somewhere in the middle of the first round.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

The hangup appears to be this part:

 

The league offered to split the draft into two portions. Picks in rounds 1-5 would have slot values equivalent to the same picks in 2019. Picks in rounds 6-10 would have 50 percent of those values, and for those picks, there would be a hard cap on the signing bonus at slot value.

 

The league also proposed a limit of five undrafted players at $20,000 — the maximum bonus such a player can receive — and an unlimited number on players at $5,000 or below.

 

The players would prefer that the draft go as many rounds as possible, giving entry to more players into the sport — and also rewarding more young players with bonus money. Some teams may share the union’s interest: Drafted players represent an investment that can appreciate many times over for pennies on the dollar.

[Bertz]

 

The hangup appears to be this part:

 

The league offered to split the draft into two portions. Picks in rounds 1-5 would have slot values equivalent to the same picks in 2019. Picks in rounds 6-10 would have 50 percent of those values, and for those picks, there would be a hard cap on the signing bonus at slot value.

 

The league also proposed a limit of five undrafted players at $20,000 — the maximum bonus such a player can receive — and an unlimited number on players at $5,000 or below.

 

The players would prefer that the draft go as many rounds as possible, giving entry to more players into the sport — and also rewarding more young players with bonus money. Some teams may share the union’s interest: Drafted players represent an investment that can appreciate many times over for pennies on the dollar.

 

 

MLB's ability to cut its nose to spite its face knows no bounds

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Congrats to the owners for saving $1 million/team while hurting the sport by limiting the talent entering.

 

 

 

[Cubswin11]

Such a shortsighted move to hurt the product/talent long term to save inconsequential money. But hopefully we aren’t complete poor idiots and take advantage of the UDFA’s. Someone(s) is going to clean up there and spend a few hundred thousand.

[NonProfitCow]

I could see a lot of guys signing with their favorite team. About the only silver lining I can think of.

[KingCubsFan]

I could see a lot of guys signing with their favorite team. About the only silver lining I can think of.

Not sure if it will be policed, but perhaps one way to get around the cap for guys not drafted will be to give them a large minor salary. So you may end up with a permanent pay raise for minor leaguers.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I could see a lot of guys signing with their favorite team. About the only silver lining I can think of.

Not sure if it will be policed, but perhaps one way to get around the cap for guys not drafted will be to give them a large minor salary. So you may end up with a permanent pay raise for minor leaguers.

 

BA mentioned that and specifically hypothesized the Blue Jays, Cubs and Giants would be at an advantage because they’ve already announced/implemented raises.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Cubs have the 19th most bonus money with $6,721,600.

 

1: $3,745,500

2: $1,436,900

3: $678,600

4: $492,700

5: $367,900

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Huh

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Named After Maddux]

Law’s mock on The Athletic dropped today.

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn

 

The Cubs also have a new scouting director this year in Dan Kantrovitz, although I don’t think there’s a big change in direction coming just yet given how heavy this draft is on college pitching.

 

That’s the second national writer to recently connect the Cubs to Tanner Burns. If we go college pitching I’d much favor Burns to any of Cavalli/Wilcox and likely Crochet.

 

I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs with Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s the best CF defender in the class. He’s suffering from some draft fatigue and Kantrovitz has drafted a lot from CA (granted what scouting director hasn’t?).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Law’s mock on The Athletic dropped today.

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn

 

The Cubs also have a new scouting director this year in Dan Kantrovitz, although I don’t think there’s a big change in direction coming just yet given how heavy this draft is on college pitching.

 

That’s the second national writer to recently connect the Cubs to Tanner Burns. If we go college pitching I’d much favor Burns to any of Cavalli/Wilcox and likely Crochet.

 

I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs with Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s the best CF defender in the class. He’s suffering from some draft fatigue and Kantrovitz has drafted a lot from CA (granted what scouting director hasn’t?).

 

Kiley McDaniel was the other to mock Burns to the Cubs but neither has really “connected” the Cubs as much as just guessed college arm, which seems logical based on Kantrovitz’ history and the number of college pitchers in this draft. Both McDaniel and Law was careful to say they don’t have much info linking players to teams (they start getting that info about a month before the draft because you can see which teams are bringing decision makers to games, etc). I wouldn’t assume too much outside of Burns being there at 16 yet.

 

I too would like the Cubs to go with a prep guy if all these teams are going college. Preferably a “famous” prep guy they have more info on (Hassell, PCA, Soderstrom & Abel have all been there at 16 in at least one mock and I’d like any of them; Ed Howard is another option if you’re confident in him). Basically, I see value in taking 4th prep guy at 16, rather than the 12th college guy. The prep class isn't that weak - especially prep OFs - teams are just inclined to trust the college player more.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA has its mock out today too. The Cubs get a falling Hassell:

 

16

Robert Hassell

Independence HS, Thompson's Station, Tenn.

OF

 

Notes: The Cubs should have a number of college arms to pick from at this spot if they want to go that direction again after taking Fresno State righthander Ryan Jensen last year. However, it’s rare that the best pure hitter in the prep class gets to this pick, so Chicago could have a steal here with Hassell.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So I put together a consensus top 30 based on the combined draft rankings of BA, ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen) and MLB Pipeline (Callis/Mayo):

 

• 
  1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona St
  2. Austin Martin, 2B/CF, Vanderbilt
  3. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
  4. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
  5. Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico St
  6. Zac Veen, OF, HS (Port Orange, FL)
  7. Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
  8. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
  9. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
  10. Jared Kelley, RHP, HS (Refugio, TX)
  11. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
  12. Austin Hendrick, OF, HS (Imperial, PA)
  13. Mick Abel, RHP, HS (Portland, OR)
  14. Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina St
  15. Nick Bitsko, RHP, HS (Doylestown, PA)
  16. Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
  17. Ed Howard, SS, HS (Chicago, IL)
  18. Tyler Soderstrom, C, HS (Turlock, CA)
  19. Robert Hassell, OF, HS (Thompson's Station, TN)
  20. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
  21. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, HS (Los Angeles, CA)
  22. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
  23. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
  24. Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
  25. Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
  26. Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn
  27. Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio St
  28. Austin Wells, C, Arizona
  29. JT Ginn, RHP, Mississippi St
  30. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke