2020 Draft Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1267986394431066112?s=21

[CaliforniaRaisin]

New BA mock gives the Cubs Hendrick (Abel was available):

 

This could be a coup for the Cubs at No. 16, as Hendrick is the best available player remaining in the class and brings some of the biggest raw power. We’re solidly in the range of educated guessing at this point in the mock draft, with little hard information on who teams prefer and more rumors to contend with.

 

The twists were the Orioles passing on Martin/Lacy for a deal with Veen and Bitsko going at 8.

[Bertz]

Keith Law's latest mock

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

 

The Cubs seem unlikely to take a high school pitcher, and other executives have speculated that they’d go college given the new scouting director and the need to get some players into the system faster.

 

Interesting on the HS front, given that a number of other places have had them going that route. I wonder if the Cubs' intentions are just a big old shrug emoji for everyone right now given the FO changes.

[Hrubes20]

 

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1267986394431066112?s=21

 

That's probably a good move by him. He wasn't going to be a 1st rounder and with the lowered bonus pools, he wasn't going to get 1st round money as a later pick. Spend a few years at LSU and reap the rewards.

New BA mock gives the Cubs Hendrick (Abel was available):

 

This could be a coup for the Cubs at No. 16, as Hendrick is the best available player remaining in the class and brings some of the biggest raw power. We’re solidly in the range of educated guessing at this point in the mock draft, with little hard information on who teams prefer and more rumors to contend with.

 

The twists were the Orioles passing on Martin/Lacy for a deal with Veen and Bitsko going at 8.

 

I just don't know if Hendrick is going to hit enough. But that is one fun player if he can.

 

Keith Law's latest mock

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

 

The Cubs seem unlikely to take a high school pitcher, and other executives have speculated that they’d go college given the new scouting director and the need to get some players into the system faster.

 

Interesting on the HS front, given that a number of other places have had them going that route. I wonder if the Cubs' intentions are just a big old shrug emoji for everyone right now given the FO changes.

 

So we have multiple people saying the Cubs are going to go for upside this draft, and then KLaw says multiple others are speculating the Cubs want some quick mover types. Yeah, nobody has a clue at this point.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jonathan Mayo had a mock tonight:

 

16. Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

It’s still hard to place Mitchell, but he has the best overall set of tools in this class. Chicago could also dive into the prep bat pool here.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Interesting, more progressive draft board: https://medium.com/@lunar.lune9/2020-mlb-draft-big-board-d893c379dbac

[Hrubes20]

https://prospects365.com/2020/06/07/ian-smiths-2020-mlb-mock-draft-2-0/

 

New 5 rounder from Prospects 365.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA’s 283rd ranked prospect is pulling out of the draft.

 

https://twitter.com/kellum_clark/status/1269705180083339265?s=21

[Bertz]

 

Nothing groundbreaking, but good overview of how the FO is adjusting to the current state of things wrt the draft.

[Hrubes20]

Patrick Bailey continues to get mocked to the White Sox, who just signed a badass catcher. It confuses me, super popular mock pick, probably definitely has something to do with some league $/WAR agenda

 

I think it's because they have taken a college hitter in the 1st round the past 4 years, and Bailey is the best college hitter available at that spot in most mocks. I honestly think Mitchell is a guy that could get popped by the White Sox. He and Robert defensively in the OF would really prolong the feasibility of continuing to trot Eloy out there every day.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

New BA mock today:

 

16 Garrett Crochet Tennessee LHP

 

Notes: Crochet has a few different suitors throughout the teens. There’s a lot of risk, but Chicago sounds like one of the teams who might be too infatuated with his significant upside. They might not let him get passed 16.

 

Surprises include Abel at 11 to the White Sox and Sabato at 14 to the Rangers.

[Named After Maddux]

Just revisiting a few topics, especially with some position player information from Kantrovitz’s time with the Cardinals and A’s.

 

A quick disclaimer, there’s countless data points to consider and a good amount is proprietary information. This isn’t any sort of method to “reverse-engineer” draft boards, but I thought a few points were interesting. Many of these notes are more comments on how the Cardinals and A’s organizational philosophies differed.

 

Cardinals

 

By and large, StL focused on college (with a lot of it being college pitching) in the first round and then went overslot on HS in the second rounds. This was a three year sample (2012-2014). It’s not an uncommon strategy. Four of six of HSs taken were in the second round. The second round picks had some significant risks. Carson Kelly was a RHP/3B (although BA noted teams were considering him at C, which StL clearly did). Steve Bean was a HS C with plus defensive ability and concerns about his hitting. Oscar Mercado was a plus defensive SS with a decent hit tool, but no power yet.

 

Cardinals tldr: Cardinals 2012-2014 drafts focused on a lot of college (especially pitching), but when they went with overslot HS, they tended to be in the second round and carried some risk.

A’s

 

His time with the A’s was a fairly even mix of “high floor” and “high ceiling”

Richie Martin (2015-floor), AJ Puk (2016-higher floor at least as a reliever), Austin Beck (2017- ceiling), Kyler Murray (2018-ceiling), Logan Davidson (2019-floor). The A’s really didn’t put much stock into wood bat performance. When I looked at position players drafted since 2015 in the top five rounds, I could find wood bat scouting reports or stats from those respective leagues on 15 of them. 11/15 had poor wood bat performance (OPS <.700). I don’t think the A’s targeted these players specifically, but likely their draft rankings calculation just didn’t weigh the performance of wood bat leagues as highly as some other organizations. Of note, one of the four that did perform well was Alfonso Rivas, now of the Cubs, and only one 1st round pick (Richie Martin in 2015) performed well with wood bats. The other first round picks (Kevin Merrell, Kyler Murray, Logan Davidson, and Austin Beck [HS, but had a specific scouting report of not having success with wood bats]) all had poor to “atrocious” performance with wood bats. I wouldn’t imagine that the Cubs organizational philosophy of targeting strong Cape Cod performers is going to change because DK came from the A’s.

 

A’s tldr: The A’s drafted a lot of guys who performed really poorly in wood bat leagues. One of the 4/15 hitters who hit well with wood bats is now in the Cubs system.

[Bertz]

I've put a lot less research into this draft than I typically do when we're picking this high, but I think Garret Mitchell is my guy. Mitchell seems pretty likely to net out as a Brett Gardner type, but it sounds like there's enough raw power in there for something a little more Granderson-ian. And for anything you can say about our FO, they tend to get the most out of college bats. If they take Mitchell I'll be less worried about any mechanical messiness than I rightfully should be.

 

Otherwise I think I want a HS arm, Bitsko slightly over Abel. I'm really wondering if all the new technology for measuring pitches makes it more viable to nab a HS arm this high. Get a guy with high end velo and spin, refine his efficiency in the lab, and basically once you've built up his innings he's ready to go. And since the technology makes grips and pitch types less of a trial and error deal, if they have clean mechanics whether they'll develop decent command should be less of a wildcard than it has been traditionally.

 

If by some fortune Hancock or Meyer are available for us they would be my picks, but over the last few weeks that possibility has seemingly gone from unlikely to impossible.

[Hrubes20]

There are plenty of guys I would be completely fine with in the 1st. But one guy that I wouldn't be fine with, is Cade Cavalli. He's quite easily my least favorite of the picks that has been mocked to us. He just can't throw strikes.

[raw]

I don't follow the MLB draft, so today I just heard of Austin Hendrick and learned that he went to the neighboring school district. Pretty cool that a dude like 12 minutes away from me could go top 15.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I know things might be different with Dan Kantrovitz but since the Cubs under Theo have loved prospects who've had success on the Cape, here are BA's top draft-eligible prospects from last year's CCL:

 

1. Nick Gonzalez, 2B, New Mexico St

2. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina

3. Austin Wells, C/OF, Arizona

4. Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi St

5. Daniel Cabrera, OF, LSU

6. Gage Workman, 3B, Arizona St

8. Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International

9. Ian Seymour, LHP, Virginia Tech

10. Noah Campbell, 2B/OF, South Carolina

11. Jake Eder, LHP, Vanderbilt

12. RJ Dabovich, RHP, Arizona St

14. Zach DeLoach, OF, Texas A&M - had a monster CCL

15. Hayden Cantrelle, 2B/SS, Louisiana-Lafayette

16. Joe Boyle, RHP, Notre Dame

18. Jesse Franklin, OF, MIchigan

19. Joey Wiemer, OF, Cincinnati

20. Ian Bedell, RHP, Missouri

21. Casey Schmitt, 3B/RHP, San Diego St

22. Jake Leftwich, RHP, Florida

23. Parker Chavers, OF, Coastal Carolina

24. Brady Smith, C, Florida

25. Zach Brzykcy, RHP, Virginia Tech

27. Tyler Mattison, RHP, Bryant

28. Seth Lonsway, LHP, Ohio St

32. Jacob Palisch, LHP, Stanford

33. Jimmy Glowenke, SS, Dallas Baptist

34. Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest

38. Ben Ramirez, SS, USC

39. Taylor Dollard, RHP, Cal Poly

40. Trei Cruz, SS, Rice

41. Kaden Polcovich, OF/2B, Oklahoma St

44. Allbry Major, OF, Xavier

46. Darren Baker, 2B, Cal - Dusty's son

47. Jamal O'Guinn, OF/1B, USC

48. Zach McCambley, RHP, Coastal Carolina

49. Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Ball St

50. Trey Dillard, RHP, Missouri

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Callis and Mayo draft-day mock:

 

16. Cubs

Callis: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA -- In a perfect world for the Cubs, they'd get a shot at an upper-tier college pitcher or Hassell, Hendrick or Soderstrom, which doesn't happen here. Mitchell could be a steal, though clubs are mixed on how they weigh his five-tool upside against his Type 1 diabetes. Pitching possibilities include Crochet, Cavalli and the high school arms.

 

Mayo: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (Imperial, Pa.) -- Should the Phillies take Hendrick, Mitchell would be a good fit as it’s mostly been bats being mentioned here.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-final-projections-for-2020-mlb-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[Bertz]

 

He lists Mitchell, Ed Howard, Austin Hendrick, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nick Bitsko, and Mick Abel as the names to watch. I'm a little weary of Hendrick's age but could get behind any of these

[Bertz]

Keith Law's last mock:

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State

 

I was told Detmers wouldn’t get past the Cubs, and if he’s gone, they might go with Foscue. They’re also one of the teams most linked to Abel. It’s worth noting that the Cubs haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2005 (Mark Pawelek), and haven’t taken any high school player in the first round since 2012 (Albert Almora), but they’ve changed scouting directors this year and appear to have a new approach to the draft.

 

I uhhhh hope he's wrong

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law's last mock:

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State

 

I was told Detmers wouldn’t get past the Cubs, and if he’s gone, they might go with Foscue. They’re also one of the teams most linked to Abel. It’s worth noting that the Cubs haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2005 (Mark Pawelek), and haven’t taken any high school player in the first round since 2012 (Albert Almora), but they’ve changed scouting directors this year and appear to have a new approach to the draft.

 

I uhhhh hope he's wrong

 

Two weeks ago, he said in a chat there was no chance the Cubs take a prep arm. :roll:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

16

Austin Hendrick

West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa.

OF

 

Notes:

This could be close to the floor for Austin Hendrick, who gets mentioned throughout the teens and has plenty of ties at the Reds at 12. If he doesn’t make it, we could see the Cubs being interested in Crochet’s upside. We’ve also heard they might be digging on Wells, and if they could get him for an underslot deal here, that would make a lot of sense considering their history and success with lefthanded bats. We think they could be interested in Mitchell if none of these other names are on the board. Watch out for East Carolina first baseman Alec Burleson with the Cubs in a later-round selection.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiley McDaniel went 2 rounds in his mock:

 

16. Chicago Cubs

 

Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor: The Cubs are also leaning college but are more open-minded, though they see some Nico Hoerner in Loftin. Crochet would be the pick if he makes it this far, Bailey could be in the mix here and the Cubs like Jordan Walker, but he probably goes between their picks.

 

51. Chicago Cubs: Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State

[Bertz]

Keith Law's last mock:

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State

 

I was told Detmers wouldn’t get past the Cubs, and if he’s gone, they might go with Foscue. They’re also one of the teams most linked to Abel. It’s worth noting that the Cubs haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2005 (Mark Pawelek), and haven’t taken any high school player in the first round since 2012 (Albert Almora), but they’ve changed scouting directors this year and appear to have a new approach to the draft.

 

I uhhhh hope he's wrong

 

Two weeks ago, he said in a chat there was no chance the Cubs take a prep arm. :roll:

 

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that people don't have a peg on the Cubs. The local guys said Mitchell and 5 High Schoolers. The national guys are primarily saying college with a few high schoolers mixed in. And there appear to be different opinions on how willing they are to do an arm.

 

I do hope if we go for a less fun college guy like a Foscue or a Loftin, that it's to let us get a HS player who falls. I'd prefer where we pick to just play the draft straight, but I could understand thinking something like Foscue at 70% of slot is better than the other options.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law's last mock:

 

 

 

I uhhhh hope he's wrong

 

Two weeks ago, he said in a chat there was no chance the Cubs take a prep arm. :roll:

 

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that people don't have a peg on the Cubs. The local guys said Mitchell and 5 High Schoolers. The national guys are primarily saying college with a few high schoolers mixed in. And there appear to be different opinions on how willing they are to do an arm.

 

I do hope if we go for a less fun college guy like a Foscue or a Loftin, that it's to let us get a HS player who falls. I'd prefer where we pick to just play the draft straight, but I could understand thinking something like Foscue at 70% of slot is better than the other options.

 

If they don’t play it straight in the first round, I want Austin Wells.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I locked this thread so we can focus all discussion to the draft day thread.