2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

[Derwood]

Can someone who knows more than me (i.e. anyone) explain why Ohio State is even sniffing this tournament? 19-14 overall, 8-12 in conference, 1-8 vs. AP top 25, 1-9 vs. USA Today top 25. They are 3-7 in their last 10. They've been the definition of "meh" all year

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).

 

How does 4-10 in Q1 games compare to your other 10 seeds?

[bukie]

Can someone who knows more than me (i.e. anyone) explain why Ohio State is even sniffing this tournament? 19-14 overall, 8-12 in conference, 1-8 vs. AP top 25, 1-9 vs. USA Today top 25. They are 3-7 in their last 10. They've been the definition of "meh" all year

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).

 

How does 4-10 in Q1 games compare to your other 10 seeds?

Oklahoma 4-10

TCU 3-9

NC State 3-9

[Derwood]

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).

 

How does 4-10 in Q1 games compare to your other 10 seeds?

Oklahoma 4-10

TCU 3-9

NC State 3-9

 

Thank you.

[bukie]

Cincinnati wins the American. I'll swap them and Louisville. Updated bracket, with only one game still going on:

 

Opening round - Dayton
- March 19
65. Abilene Christian (Southland)
66. Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC)

42. Belmont
43. Lipscomb

- March 20
67. North Dakota State (Summit)
68. UNC Central (MEAC)

44. Temple
45. Indiana

East Regional - Washington DC
- Columbia, SC (Mar 22/24)
1 (1). Duke (ACC)
16 (67/68). North Dakota State (Summit)/UNC Central (MEAC) (Dayton 2)

8 (32). Florida
9 (33). Minnesota

- San Jose, CA (Mar 22/24)
4 (16). Wisconsin
13 (51). UC Irvine (Big West)

5 (18). Buffalo (MAC)
12 (49). Oregon (Pac 12)

- Des Moines, IA (Mar 21/23)
2 (8). Kentucky
15 (59). Northern Kentucky (Horizon)

7 (25). Kansas State
10 (38). NC State

- Tulsa, OK (Mar 22/24)
3 (9). Houston
14 (57). Vermont (America East) 

6 (24). Wofford (SoCon)
11 (41). Syracuse

West Regional - Anaheim, CA
- Salt Lake City, UT (Mar 21/23)
1 (2). Gonzaga
16 (65/66) Abilene Christian (Southland)/Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) (Dayton 1)

8 (29). Iowa
9 (34). Baylor

- San Jose, CA (Mar 22/24)
4 (15). Florida State
13 (53). St. Louis (A-10)

5 (19). Villanova
12 (48). New Mexico State (WAC)

- Jacksonville, FL (Mar 21/23)
2 (7). Tennessee
15 (60). Colgate (Patriot)

7 (26). Maryland
10 (40). TCU

- Des Moines, IA (Mar 21/23)
3 (11). Kansas
14 (55). Northeastern (CAA)

6 (23). Cincinnati (AAC)
11 (42/43). Belmont/Lipscomb (Dayton 1)

South Regional - Louisville, KY
- Columbia, SC (Mar 22/24)
1 (3). Virginia
16 (64). Prairie View (SWAC)

8 (31). UCF
9 (35). Washington

- Hartford, CT (Mar 21/23)
4 (13). Purdue
13 (52). Old Dominion (CUSA)

5 (20). Marquette
12 (50). Liberty (ASun) 

- Columbus, OH (Mar 22/24)
2 (6). Michigan
15 (61). Bradley (MVC)

7 (27). Louisville
10 (39). Oklahoma

- Tulsa, OK (Mar 22/24)
3 (10). LSU
14 (56). Sun Belt champ (Georgia State) 

6 (21). Iowa State (Big 12)
11(44/45). Temple/Indiana (Dayton 2)

Midwest Regional - Kansas City, MO
- Columbus, OH (Mar 22/24)
1 (4). Michigan State (B1G)
16 (63). Iona (MAAC)

8 (30). VCU
9 (36). Seton Hall

- Hartford, CT (Mar 21/23)
4 (14). Auburn (SEC)
13 (54). Yale (Ivy)

5 (17). Virginia Tech
12 (47). Murray State (OVC)

- Jacksonville, FL (Mar 21/23)
2 (5). North Carolina
15 (62). Gardner-Webb (Big South)

7 (28), Nevada
10 (37). Ohio State

- Salt Lake City, UT (Mar 21/23)
3 (12). Texas Tech
14 (58). Montana (Big Sky)

6 (22). Mississippi State
11 (46). St. Mary's (WCC)

[bukie]

Michigan-MSU tied with a minute to play, because of course it is. I'm not sure how to handle it if Michigan wins, but I'd probably just swap them.

[bukie]

MSU, 3 wins vs Michigan, 0 wins vs Indiana or Illinois.

[bukie]

Some quick thoughts before the selection:

 

- I think the top 8 seeds (1 and 2 seeds) are as strong as they've ever been this year, and there's a sizable gap between those 8 teams (Duke/UNC/Virginia/Gonzaga/Tennessee/Kentucky/MSU/Michigan) and everyone else.

- I think the bottom of the at large pool is really bad this year, and I almost feel like the high NET teams like UNC Greensboro and Furman should get bids before Indiana and Temple, but I don't think it'll happen.

- Texas is still on brackets as a .500 team, but a .500 team has never made a bracket.

- I'm curious how heavily the committee will weigh the NET rating. Related, I'm going to be unreasonably annoyed if St. John's is in the bracket with a NET of 74, and Furman isn't in the bracket with a NET of 37.

[bukie]

I screwed up and inadvertently omitted Ole Miss from the curve, but it is what it is at this point. They should be on the 10 seed line, and every team behind them pushed down 1.

[bukie]

MSU gets a 2 in the East...interesting.

 

Belmont makes the tourney!

[UMFan83]

Can someone who knows more than me (i.e. anyone) explain why Ohio State is even sniffing this tournament? 19-14 overall, 8-12 in conference, 1-8 vs. AP top 25, 1-9 vs. USA Today top 25. They are 3-7 in their last 10. They've been the definition of "meh" all year

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).

 

They also get some consideration that their late season slide came with their best player suspended

[bukie]

Ole miss an 8 seed, Iowa a 10.

[bukie]

Just half the bracket revealed so far, already MSu, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota and Iowa in a bracket.

[bukie]

Ohio State an 11.

[bukie]

Things only I care about...Abilene Christian is hugely overseeded.

[bukie]

Bleh, BOTH Arizona State and St. John's are in.

[bukie]

TCU and NC State did not make it.

[bukie]

In total I ended up missing 3 teams since I neglected to seed Utah State despite them winning the MWC. That's what I get for rushing things after midnight on a Saturday.

 

Other than that, only big miss was Kansas State's seed, which I personally think is way high. Everything else was at least within 2 spots.

 

Overall, not a good bracket year for me, though, even getting Belmont right.

 

I'm still super annoyed that St. John's is in this bracket. It's insane. I guess that 5-7 record against Q1 meant everything.

[bukie]

Also, Arizona State makes the bracket likely solely because of their non conference wins vs Kansas and Mississippi State. Two Q4 losses and an overall weak profile otherwise.

[Derwood]

Always weird to see an NCAA bracket without UConn, Arizona, UCLA or Indiana.

[bukie]

In terms of the actual quality of teams, this may have been the worst bracket ever.

 

Going by KP rankings, the committee took both #76 Temple and #78 St. John's, and left out #30 Texas and #33 NC State. And it's not like they looked at NET rankings that closely either, since both those and Arizona State were significantly higher than some unselected teams.

 

Also, the committee underseeded MSU, overseeded most of the 4s and underseeded most of the 5s, such that the gap between 4-13 and 5-12 are about the same, and none of the matchups are that close statistically.

 

The only statistically close first round matchup that could be considered an upset would be St. Mary's and Villanova, as those teams are actually close statistically. Cincy-Iowa and Nevada-Florida are basically dead heats as well.

 

However, the gap between the top 8 and everyone else is still pretty stark, and the committee made the top 8 all the 1 and 2 seeds, so they could end up looking good purely by accident.

[NewUserName]

To me, It looks like the committee was more concerned about who teams lost to than who they beat. I really didnt mind that MSU got a 2 seed, it"s being in the toughest bracket that bothers me....while Michigan is probably in the easiest bracket