4/2/18 Cubs (Chatwood) @ Reds (Mahle) 3:10 PM CST NBC Sports Chicago

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The thing about BABIP that makes it really weird and fluky is that goes far beyond just "luck." It isn't just a case of defense and luck impacting BABIP. When we're looking at what happens when a ball leaves a bat, we're talking about fractions of an inch and hundredths of a second having enormous impact on what happens to that ball.

 

Other periphs are more stable not only because they are more skill-based, but also because there are numerous tangible inputs that are more going into them. To walk or strikeout, it takes a series of pitches. The batter must choose to swing or not. And he must be able to recognize the pitch. Being a tenth of a second late on three pitches is going to crater a guy's BABIP this early in the season.

 

It's a lot easier to not swing at a ball than it is to hit every pitch on the screws. It's why guys go through slumps. And it's why it's silly to look at BABIP in small samples.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Also, I know we all know the strikeout take by Rogers is dumb but another thing that makes it look dumb.... We rank 6th as a team in hard contact% and 19th in soft contact%. Way to results focused right now by Cubs twitter idiots, the process is mostly fine (obviously could use some refinement but the results are going to come).

Since we are digging into those numbers I will point out that we are 1st in pull % and have the highest BABIP among the top 5 in that category at 280. I get it that we are hitting the ball hard and we want to summarily attribute that to bad luck but I think we must acknowledge that in this day of defensive shifts and more accurate than ever spray charts, we are playing into our opponents hands a bit.

 

This is the same nonsense you spouted ad nauseam last year. We told you repeatedly that you were digging too deep into things and trying to make stats say things that they weren't capable of saying. And then the Cubs BABIP'd .328 in the second half last year, completely debunking your notions.

 

And now you're ready to dive back in after a 5 game sample?

 

I mean, seriously, you are trying to take Pull% from 4 games and deducing some Big Theory about our organizational philosophies.

 

First half 2017: 43.6 (1st)

Second: 39.9 (16th)

 

They didn't debunk horsefeathers. Maddon even talked about it several times last season. He said he was preaching the same thing but the hitters weren't listening. It's not an organizational philosophy; it's a lot of young hitters who aren't yet adept at hitting the ball where it's pitched.

[javy knows my name]

Since we are digging into those numbers I will point out that we are 1st in pull % and have the highest BABIP among the top 5 in that category at 280. I get it that we are hitting the ball hard and we want to summarily attribute that to bad luck but I think we must acknowledge that in this day of defensive shifts and more accurate than ever spray charts, we are playing into our opponents hands a bit.

 

This is the same nonsense you spouted ad nauseam last year. We told you repeatedly that you were digging too deep into things and trying to make stats say things that they weren't capable of saying. And then the Cubs BABIP'd .328 in the second half last year, completely debunking your notions.

 

And now you're ready to dive back in after a 5 game sample?

 

I mean, seriously, you are trying to take Pull% from 4 games and deducing some Big Theory about our organizational philosophies.

 

First half 2017: 43.6 (1st)

Second: 39.9 (16th)

 

They didn't debunk horsefeathers. Maddon even talked about it several times last season. He said he was preaching the same thing but the hitters weren't listening. It's not an organizational philosophy; it's a lot of young hitters who aren't yet adept at hitting the ball where it's pitched.

 

This is nothing, and you should feel bad for saying it

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Also, there's a much easier explanation for anomalous numbers in Pull% and BABIP and the like: horsefeathers happens. The Cubs' numbers are weird because the bats are "off." They aren't hitting the ball right. It most likely has nothing to do with their approaches or organizational philosophy. Collectively, they're just off.

 

I'll use Kyle Schwarber as an analog for the whole team. When Schwarber pulls the ball, it's usually on the ground. So when he's off, he's going to pull it a lot and his balls in play aren't going to go for hits. But all those grounders are a byproduct of him trying to hit the ball hard and get it in the air. When he's right, he won't pull it as much and he won't be hitting it on the ground. And his balls in play will fall in for hits. I don't want him to change his approach, necessarily, though, because I want him to try to hit it hard. When he does, he hits bombs.

 

When a bunch of guys are off, there is going to be some weird batted ball data. And it will even out because they will all get hot at some point. That's what happens in baseball. This is basically the same squad that we've trotted out since 2015 and our BABIP has been between .302 and .305 in all of the past three seasons. The league average over that time is .300. There is no fatal flaw with our approaches. Our BABIP will be fine. Our Pull% 5 games into the season doesn't matter. Stop trying to read so much into incredibly small samples of a completely unstable stat.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Also, there's a much easier explanation for anomalous numbers in Pull% and BABIP and the like: horsefeathers happens. The Cubs' numbers are weird because the bats are "off." They aren't hitting the ball right. It most likely has nothing to do with their approaches or organizational philosophy. Collectively, they're just off.

 

I'll use Kyle Schwarber as an analog for the whole team. When Schwarber pulls the ball, it's usually on the ground. So when he's off, he's going to pull it a lot and his balls in play aren't going to go for hits. But all those grounders are a byproduct of him trying to hit the ball hard and get it in the air. When he's right, he won't pull it as much and he won't be hitting it on the ground. And his balls in play will fall in for hits. I don't want him to change his approach, necessarily, though, because I want him to try to hit it hard. When he does, he hits bombs.

 

When a bunch of guys are off, there is going to be some weird batted ball data. And it will even out because they will all get hot at some point. That's what happens in baseball. This is basically the same squad that we've trotted out since 2015 and our BABIP has been between .302 and .305 in all of the past three seasons. The league average over that time is .300. There is no fatal flaw with our approaches. Our BABIP will be fine. Our Pull% 5 games into the season doesn't matter. Stop trying to read so much into incredibly small samples of a completely unstable stat.

 

I didn't even look at them until CW11 brought up hard and soft% but I don't see anybody scolding him for looking at that small sample. I completely agree with everything you said but I can't not see last year's first half struggles as a result of trying to yank everything. Like I said, Joe acknowledged it as a problem and he wanted them to shift their approach at the plate and they pretty clearly did and they saw a 48 point BABIP increase and got back to plating a [expletive] of runs. I feel like I'm watching them bang their heads into the wall when they hit a bunch of atem balls and have nothing to show for it. I'm not labeling it as a fatal flaw. I'm saying that I'm not surprised they have a low BABIP. All the horsefeathers I cited and complained about in the first half last year only lingered until the break. It's not like I was egregiously wrong about any of it.

[Cubswin11]

Also, there's a much easier explanation for anomalous numbers in Pull% and BABIP and the like: horsefeathers happens. The Cubs' numbers are weird because the bats are "off." They aren't hitting the ball right. It most likely has nothing to do with their approaches or organizational philosophy. Collectively, they're just off.

 

I'll use Kyle Schwarber as an analog for the whole team. When Schwarber pulls the ball, it's usually on the ground. So when he's off, he's going to pull it a lot and his balls in play aren't going to go for hits. But all those grounders are a byproduct of him trying to hit the ball hard and get it in the air. When he's right, he won't pull it as much and he won't be hitting it on the ground. And his balls in play will fall in for hits. I don't want him to change his approach, necessarily, though, because I want him to try to hit it hard. When he does, he hits bombs.

 

When a bunch of guys are off, there is going to be some weird batted ball data. And it will even out because they will all get hot at some point. That's what happens in baseball. This is basically the same squad that we've trotted out since 2015 and our BABIP has been between .302 and .305 in all of the past three seasons. The league average over that time is .300. There is no fatal flaw with our approaches. Our BABIP will be fine. Our Pull% 5 games into the season doesn't matter. Stop trying to read so much into incredibly small samples of a completely unstable stat.

 

I didn't even look at them until CW11 brought up hard and soft% but I don't see anybody scolding him for looking at that small sample. I completely agree with everything you said but I can't not see last year's first half struggles as a result of trying to yank everything. Like I said, Joe acknowledged it as a problem and he wanted them to shift their approach at the plate and they pretty clearly did and they saw a 48 point BABIP increase and got back to plating a [expletive] of runs. I feel like I'm watching them bang their heads into the wall when they hit a bunch of atem balls and have nothing to show for it. I'm not labeling it as a fatal flaw. I'm saying that I'm not surprised they have a low BABIP. All the horsefeathers I cited and complained about in the first half last year only lingered until the break. It's not like I was egregiously wrong about any of it.

Hitting the ball hard vs soft is something that actually happened though. BABIP at this point is nebulous.

 

The team is hitting the ball hard and not striking out that much is the underlying thesis.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Over a 6 game sample I would have to assume that hard contact/exit velocity is very highly correlated with pull percentage, because balls that you hit the living bejeezus out of are way more likely to be pulled. Pointing out a high pull percentage is basically self evident if you’re hitting the ball hard a lot.

 

Also, since we’re talking about a sample that small, it’s hard to look at the way they made Brinson burn 5000 calories a game chasing the ball over creation and conclude ‘welp, that’s what happens when you’re predictable and you get shifted’.

 

Also also, it is six games’ worth of at bats and 48 hours ago they were averaging about 5 runs per 9 innings.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Cubswin11 brought up Hard% to suggest we've hit the ball hard and that people are too results-oriented. He didn't use that information to then suggest that we should stop hitting the ball so hard, since hitting the ball hard hasn't worked out for us. That's why nobody is scolding him.

[We Got The Whole 9]

It's all good. Won't mention it again.

 

[bcl412]

Does all this smart people stuff mean we’re gonna win soon?

[Cubswin11]

Does all this smart people stuff mean we’re gonna win soon?

[Schwarber Fan]

What a brutal two games. We'll see if they reschedule tomorrow's game to Wednesday. Either way, need the day off badly.

 

the most aramis fan post that ever did aramis fan

 

And it was accurate. Glad they aren't playing tomorrow. Nice mental break.

[17 Seconds]

What a brutal two games. We'll see if they reschedule tomorrow's game to Wednesday. Either way, need the day off badly.

 

the most aramis fan post that ever did aramis fan

 

And it was accurate. Glad they aren't playing tomorrow. Nice mental break.

 

for you

[Sammy Sofa]

This mook is glad that we basically get 3 days without baseball after only five horsefeathering games.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The players don’t need mental breaks. The players are mentally atrong. FFS, they came back from a 3-1 deficit against Cleveland and still won after blowing a 4-run lead in Game 7. But 2 shutouts in the first week of the season has them shook?

 

Certain fans definitely need a mental break though.