2018 Draft Thread

[Regular Show]

Yeah if we're going bat-only guys, give me Larnach over Beer.

 

Though in that scenario, I'd be mighty tempted to take Groshans, Naylor, or Thomas. Those are three high quality well rounded high school position players. Though if we take a college bat I trust this FO implicitly that he's a good choice.

 

Yeah, same here. Of those 5 players you listed I'm highest on Groshans and Larnach. I really like Groshans and think he might not even be there at 24. I'm pretty sure Larnach will be available, but I don't know how much of a discount we can get for him. Maybe 200K if he signs for around a ~$2 mil signing bonus?

[davell]

Our 1st round slot is 2.724 mill. Pick 36 is where slot falls under 2 Mill. If we're getting a discount down to 2 mill total, it conceivably comes from a guy thinking he falls to 36 or later.

[Hrubes20]

I like Hannah a bunch. If we were going to under slot a college guy in the 1st, I think he's my top choice.

 

I might agree with this since intuitively it seems like he has more starting potential than say a Larnach due to bringing speed and defense to the table. Larnach strikes me as a Seth Smith type, the bat will play but the rest of his game will keep his overall value down.

 

Yeah, it just depends on how his body matures. He's a got a really good OF arm, so he could stick in RF pretty easily as long as he doesn't fill out too much and slow down.

[Hrubes20]

Yeah, that updated list was a good read. Plenty of prep guys I hadn’t heard of.

[Regular Show]

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1000404850755153920

 

Typing on my cellphone so the post isn't working quite right...

 

Anyway, the Tigers really seem like they want to take a hitter with the #1 pick, but Casey Mize is the best prospect in this draft class. It would totally make sense for them to trade down and acquire additional assets if MLB allowed full trading of draft picks like in other professional sports.

 

It's so frustrating that the Cubs can't move or down to get the guy they really want in the draft. Hopefully, they change this soon or in the next CBA.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Padres acquire the 74th pick from the Twins to take on Phil Hughes and some of his salary.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1000404850755153920

 

Typing on my cellphone so the post isn't working quite right...

 

Anyway, the Tigers really seem like they want to take a hitter with the #1 pick, but Casey Mize is the best prospect in this draft class. It would totally make sense for them to trade down and acquire additional assets if MLB allowed full trading of draft picks like in other professional sports.

 

It's so frustrating that the Cubs can't move or down to get the guy they really want in the draft. Hopefully, they change this soon or in the next CBA.

 

I fixed your post.

 

I’m guessing draft pick trades are going to be on the table for the next CBA negotiation unless it’s a nasty fight and they don’t have time for that type of stuff. It felt like introducing trading competitive balance picks was the first step.

[davell]

Padres acquire the 74th pick from the Twins to take on Phil Hughes and some of his salary.

 

 

The Pads are taking on 7.2M next year of Hughes deal. Insinuating that's their evaluations on what 800K in Draft Budget is worth.....

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ugh:

 

[davell]

 

Oh well, one less guy that could have been available as an over slot after the first.....

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mike Vasil withdraws from the draft to honor his commitment to Virginia.

 

[UK]

Mike Vasil withdraws from the draft to honor his commitment to Virginia.

 

 

I respect his commitment and dedication to UVA, disagree with the logic.

[toonsterwu]

That's a huge get for UVA if it holds true. Will wait and see, although the top guys that didn't reach UVA in recent years (Wentz/Jones) largely gave indications that they were going to go pro (well, Jones was sorta in b/w, but iirc, had given indication that the right money was needed). Vasil has a good chance to be the Friday night starter from the get-go next year, as UVA's rotation will likely lose 2/3rd of it's weekend guys (hard not to see a team draft Lynch at some point early enough ... there's potential that may be better suited for professional coaches to unlock, what with the UVA pitching approach).

[Hrubes20]

 

Oh well, one less guy that could have been available as an over slot after the first.....

 

That stinks. I guess the kid didn't want a chance at a big league career. Going to UVA effectively ends that.

[toonsterwu]

 

Oh well, one less guy that could have been available as an over slot after the first.....

 

That stinks. I guess the kid didn't want a chance at a big league career. Going to UVA effectively ends that.

 

It's a fair critique of recent UVA pitchers, but I would point out that

 

a) Off the top, and I don't exactly memorize pre-draft prep rankings, Vasil might be the most talented arm to go to UVA in awhile. Hultzen might be a close 2nd, but I feel like Vasil was the better thought of kid.

 

b) The biggest critique of UVA pitching first goes to the crouch. That said, Daniel Lynch, the enigma that he is, didn't really utilize the crouch. Off the top,

 

c) Hultzen's failure hangs over the group, but Hultzen admitted that a lot of it was his own fault, as he lacked the structure at UVA to get him back on track when he got side-railed (or words to those extent).

 

d) I mean ... besides Hultzen, talent wise, from a SP perspective, really ... it's Nathan Kirby, and maybe, maybe Branden Kline. Kirby got injured. I should know what happened to Branden Kline ... I can't think of it right now, but it was an injury. Otherwise, even a guy like Josh Sborz was more a middle relief profile who was a tough as nails pitcher, and same goes for Brandon Waddell. Tyler Wilson was a fringe arm who did long-tossing to improve. Connor Jones stuff backed up senior year, and IIRC, had to do with him getting too muscular and losing touch? I think.

 

Short of it is, in the end, talent matters, and Vasil would be another notch. And yeah, it's fair to critique UVA pitchers in the pros until they come through, but really, it's a limited sample size that were really top level talent.

 

Oh, thinking about it, the most talented uVA arm might've been J ... crap what's his first name, Thompson. Still, he was a ground ball guy whose stuff backed up by the time his junior year was done.

[davell]

The bottom line is they've got a fairly negative perception attached to them, when it comes to pitching.

 

No idea how much Vasil could have gotten from a team at this EXACT point, but I'd get at worst it was in the 1.5 range. And if teams were satisfied with the medicals, he could've gotten 3 from some team.

 

At any rate, I think it's bad advice to turn down that kind of money. Especially as a pitcher. You can always goto college later. You're no where close to guaranteed to see that kind of bonus again.

 

I think Jones held out for 3 mill and wound up getting 2nd Round money when he finally left. Hopefully Vasil isn't making the same mistake.

[UK]

The bottom line is they've got a fairly negative perception attached to them, when it comes to pitching.

 

No idea how much Vasil could have gotten from a team at this EXACT point, but I'd get at worst it was in the 1.5 range. And if teams were satisfied with the medicals, he could've gotten 3 from some team.

 

At any rate, I think it's bad advice to turn down that kind of money. Especially as a pitcher. You can always goto college later. You're no where close to guaranteed to see that kind of bonus again.

 

I think Jones held out for 3 mill and wound up getting 2nd Round money when he finally left. Hopefully Vasil isn't making the same mistake.

 

Plus, you're missing out on 3 years of the best year round instructors you'll find anywhere in the world.

 

I mentioned this to Bruno but if it was my son and he could clear 150-200k after taxes/anything above that at slot & with them paying 100% of school, I would suggest signing.

[toonsterwu]

^^^ Connor Jones was around Vasil's range as a HS prospect BUT a very different style of pitcher. Jones was a sinker/breaking ball guy even in HS, Vasil's probably their first straight potential power arm in my memory.

 

Was Connor that high out of the prep ranks? I really don't recall, tbh. I knew he was good, but with Nathan Kirby having turned down the draft, Connor sort of always got stacked behind him.

 

I will say this, if UVA, and their coaches have done a fantastic job since they've gotten there, screw with Vasil's delivery, that's just stupid. It looks ... from what I've seen, clean enough that it shouldn't be an issue.

[Regular Show]

 

Oh well, one less guy that could have been available as an over slot after the first.....

 

Not happy when draft prospects do this, but whatever.

 

If he really wants to go to college and be overworked his junior year and throw 120+ pitches on short rest then I wish him all the best...

[davell]

^^^ Connor Jones was around Vasil's range as a HS prospect BUT a very different style of pitcher. Jones was a sinker/breaking ball guy even in HS, Vasil's probably their first straight potential power arm in my memory.

 

Was Connor that high out of the prep ranks? I really don't recall, tbh. I knew he was good, but with Nathan Kirby having turned down the draft, Connor sort of always got stacked behind him.

 

I will say this, if UVA, and their coaches have done a fantastic job since they've gotten there, screw with Vasil's delivery, that's just stupid. It looks ... from what I've seen, clean enough that it shouldn't be an issue.

 

Jones was a top 30-50 guy. I think he was higher ranked than Kirby. I know he was mocked in numerous 1sts.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Good listen for people who are unfamiliar with this draft class and really like Jim Callis.

 

He starts by saying how this draft class was really talented going into the year and had a chance to match the 2011 draft class, but now says it's not quite that talented. Callis says this draft has great depth, but very little consensus and separation among prospects after Casey Mize.

[Regular Show]

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1000404850755153920

 

Typing on my cellphone so the post isn't working quite right...

 

Anyway, the Tigers really seem like they want to take a hitter with the #1 pick, but Casey Mize is the best prospect in this draft class. It would totally make sense for them to trade down and acquire additional assets if MLB allowed full trading of draft picks like in other professional sports.

 

It's so frustrating that the Cubs can't move or down to get the guy they really want in the draft. Hopefully, they change this soon or in the next CBA.

 

I fixed your post.

 

I’m guessing draft pick trades are going to be on the table for the next CBA negotiation unless it’s a nasty fight and they don’t have time for that type of stuff. It felt like introducing trading competitive balance picks was the first step.

 

Yeah, I hope it's on the table for the next CBA negotiation, but I feel like the next one is going to be really contentious with a possible lockout/strike situation happening. The Player's Union is really upset over what happened this past offseason. I can see other issues (like trading draft picks) getting pushed back or placed on the back burner.

 

MLB moves at such a glacial pace when it comes to changing important parts of the game like the amateur draft. Teams being allowed to trade competitive balance picks was an important first step, but we might be stuck at this step for a long time...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[davell]

Kiley's chat has a ton of info. Including saying our top decision makers were at Densburg's last start. He pitched well. It was against Casas actually.

[Regular Show]

Kiley's chat has a ton of info. Including saying our top decision makers were at Densburg's last start. He pitched well. It was against Casas actually.

 

Yeah, a lot of good content in there. I didn't want to post everything draft related in the chat, but I'll post a few here:

 

A Boy Named Yu: Best guess for Cubs’ first pick?

 

Kiley McDaniel: They had their top two decision makers at the Denaburg vs. Casas playoff game and Denaburg was pretty good.

 

Dustin: What’s your long term outlook on Ryan Rolison in the upcoming draft? Four pitch lefty with good decent control and can hit mid 90’s. Seems similar to the Liberatore “whole is more than the sum of the parts”.

 

Kiley McDaniel: Except Rolison isn’t projectable, needs to change his delivery some, needs better fastball command and needs to throw his changeup more/curveball less and didn’t perform that well in the SEC. Could go as high as 11, but probably more in the 20’s

 

Tom: Saw a report that had Kyler Murray’s arm at a 40 grade. Certainly doesn’t look good for an aspiring QB. What’re the odds a team with a big bonus pool grabs him & how much $$$ would it take?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like $4-5 million, if there even is a number. Arm is below right now but the arm action can be cleaned up to be more baseball like and there’s some zip in there so it’ll likely be average to above eventually.