Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-20-17

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won 6-4 Box Score

 

RF M. Zagunis 2/4, R, HR (11), RBI, BB

CF J. Hannemann 1/4, R, K

1B J. Candelario 1/4, R, HR (9), 2 RBI, K

DH V. Caratini 2/4, 2 R, HR (7), RBI

SS C. Young 2/3, 2B (12)

LF J. Andreoli 0/4, 2 K

SP W. Perez 5.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 WP, 8-2 GO-FO, 92-57 pitches-strikes

RP A. Acevedo 0.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB 0 K, 0-1 GO-FO

RP Z. Rosscup 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K, 1-0 GO-FO

 

Tennessee had the day off

 

Myrtle Beach had the day off

 

South Bend had the day off

 

Eugene lost 7-6 (10 innings) Box Score

 

SS A. Ademan 1/4, R, BB, K, CS (1)

2B R. Narea 1/4, R, HBP

C G. Polanco 2/5, R, 2 2B (5), RBI, E (1, throw), PB (1)

1B J. Martarano 3/5, 2B (1), 3 RBI, K, 2 SB (2)

3B K-M Kwon 0/4, BB, K

SP A. Garcia 3.2 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 2 WP, 5-2 GO-FO

RP M. Rodriguez 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 2 WP, 3-1 GO-FO

 

DSL Cubs 1 lost 18-9 Box Score

 

SS L. Diaz 2/2, R, RBI, HBP, SB (5)

LF C. Pacheco 1/4, 2 R, 2B (2), RBI, K, outfield assist at home

RF J. Jules 1/4, 3 RBI, BB, K, SB (5)

C Hen. Perez 0/3, E (3, throw)

2B-SS Her. Perez 0/3, 2 R, BB, E (7, throw)

SP E. Vasquez 3.1 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 5-2 GO-FO

 

DSL Cubs 2 lost 4-1 Box Score

 

CF R. Verenzuela 0/5, 3 K

SS J. Huma 0/3, BB, 2 K

2B O. Nuñez 1/3, BB, K

1B J. Brete 1/3, BB, 2 K, CS (2)

LF C. Alfonzo 1/4, R, K

SP J. Tejada 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 4-1 GO-FO

RP F. Heredia 2 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 WP, 2-1 GO-FO

[CubsWin]

I try to at least be aware of every Cubs prospect who has played in a game at some level in their organization. When I saw some guy named Alonso Garcia was starting for Eugene today I was like, "where'd this guy come from?" So I clicked on the link that Raisin so helpfully provides for us on every pitcher, every day (thank you, Raisin), and it showed he had just turned 19 and pitched 75.1 innings for DSL2 last year and I thought, "how could I have missed this guy?".

 

Then I realized Hector Garcia had become Alonso Garcia. Come on, man. Keeping track of everybody is hard enough as it is...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mooney puff piece on Eloy:

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/what-cubs-would-have-give-eloy-jimenez-get-frontline-pitcher

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Caratini with a long HR.

[Cubswin11]

Caratini with a long HR.

Fitting....

 

https://twitter.com/BPWrigleyville/status/877121052568162304

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jeimer Candelario's turn:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[davell]

Zagunis hit one too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Zagunis's first 2 weeks: 54 PA, .136/.296/.227, 1 HR, 10/14 BB/K

 

Zagunis since: 212 PA, .275/.424/.539, 9 HR, 38/46 BB/K

[Cubswin11]

I have some irrational prospect love for Zagunis

[cubsclapp]

I have some irrational prospect love for Zagunis

 

It's not irrational. He may have a better chance to be a productive big leaguer than anyone in our system.

[cubsclapp]

Zagunis's first 2 weeks: 54 PA, .136/.296/.227, 1 HR, 10/14 BB/K

 

Zagunis since: 212 PA, .275/.424/.539, 9 HR, 38/46 BB/K

 

Seems he was playing injured. Birch just wrote this: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/iowa-cubs/2017/06/20/iowa-outfielder-mark-zagunis-making-case-first-big-league-call-up/412626001/?hootPostID=0be48add6bb26293e85faaab90607d07

 

The change has helped Zagunis, who, after a slow start to the season, has raised his batting average to .249. Part of the slow start seemed from Zagunis who was limited during spring training when he dealt with the lingering effects of a broken toe he suffered last season.

 

The injury also hampered Zagunis’ offseason running and leg exercises. So, he tried to counter that limitation with more healthy eating habits.

 

Zagunis is now healthy, and he’s able to catch up on some of that work. It’s showed on defense, where Pevey said he’s seen Zagunis make massive strides since spring training. A star catcher in college, Zagunis is as comfortable as ever in the outfield.

 

“Better routes, better first-step quickness and better reads on line drives right at him,” Pevey said. “His feet are under him now when he’s throwing. His overall play is 100 percent better.”

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Adbert Alzolay is starting for the South in the Carolinas League ASG.

[cubsclapp]

More on Zagunis:

 

He has a 17.9 BB% (48 BB, 0 intentional). The next-best in all of Triple-A (Pacific or International) is 16.3%.

 

He's also one of the leaders in hit by pitches (6), which seems to be an annual thing for him (16 in 2015, for example).

 

It remains to be seen how his contact and K rates will be, but the walk (and hbp) skills are skills that translate. And now he's added power, with a team-leading 11 dongs. And that doesn't seem to be by accident as he told FanGraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-notes-maddon-hendricks-anderson-zagunis/) in February:

 

When Eric Longenhagen wrote up Mark Zagunis in his Cubs top-prospect list, he cited a lack of in-game power. The numbers bear that out. The right-handed-hitting outfielder is slashing .281/.401/.434 since being drafted by the Cubs out of Virginia Tech, but he’s gone deep just 30 times in three professional seasons. That’s something he’s looking to change. When I asked Zagunis if hitting for more power is a goal, his response was an unequivocal “Absolutely.”

 

Doing a better job of turning on balls is part of the plan.

 

“The middle of the field is probably where I hit the majority of my home runs last year,” said Zagunis, who banged out 10 between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. “I’ve been working on hitting with more power to [the pull side], and I’m excited about that. I’ve been struggling a little bit on inside pitches, so trying to consistently drive the ball to left field is one of my goals this year.”

 

Longenhagen described Zagunis’s swing path as linear, while the former Hokie characterized it as “a slight uppercut.” That might be notable. As a corner outfielder who lacks plus speed, he probably needs to propel more balls into gaps, and over fences, to forge a noteworthy career. One challenge is to make the adjustment without compromising what he currently does well.

 

“I’m definitely trying to develop more and more power,” said Zagunis. “But if that makes me switch my swing, or I don’t feel comfortable, I’ll definitely go back to my old approach, and my old swing.”

 

So, hopefully that remains a thing too. Probably not to this level, but if he can be a double-digit homer guy, that certainly helps with his on-base skills.

[cubsclapp]

[Jaxbro]

Cease with a perfect 3rd inning for the East All Stars. 2 k on 18 pitches

[Jaxbro]

Steele with a perfect 5th for the South All Stars. One k, on 19 pitches

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Always nice to see good reports on his breaking ball.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Matt Szczur hit .292/.355/.442/.796 in his second go round in the same league at age 25. I have Zagunis pegged as a 4th outfielder/short side of a platoon, and I'm pretty sure the consensus is pretty similar, especially on a championship contender with plenty of positional talent like the Cubs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/billazbbphotog/status/877346428451827712[/tweet]

 

It was 120 in Phoenix today.

[cubsclapp]

Matt Szczur hit .292/.355/.442/.796 in his second go round in the same league at age 25. I have Zagunis pegged as a 4th outfielder/short side of a platoon, and I'm pretty sure the consensus is pretty similar, especially on a championship contender with plenty of positional talent like the Cubs.

 

Right, and Zagunis has actually been great vs right-handed pitching over the last two years (.985 OPS last year, .853 this year) something that has always been an issue for Szczur. It remains to be seen if that will keep up vs MLB sliders, but it's at least a good sign for his potential to be perhaps more than a Szczur/Jeff Baker/Reed Johnson strict platoon bat.

[Donzo]

Zagunis has a special skill (OBP), too. That helps his chances.

[davell]

http://www.thecubreporter.com/06212017/brett-anderson-shines-under-lights-azl-cubs-unload-azl-giants#more

 

Albertos got in the way of a no look throw by the catcher to second on a wild pitch and was hit on the elbow or forearm. He left the game soon afterwards. I hope like hell he's not going to miss much time, if any.

[Thrilho]

Matt Szczur hit .292/.355/.442/.796 in his second go round in the same league at age 25. I have Zagunis pegged as a 4th outfielder/short side of a platoon, and I'm pretty sure the consensus is pretty similar, especially on a championship contender with plenty of positional talent like the Cubs.

In the prospect rankings we did last week I noticed Zagunis is still showing up toward the bottom of most posters' top tens, so it does seem like 4th outfielder is still consensus around here. With his recent power surge, along with his increase in fly balls and pulled balls, I'm seeing him more as a middle of the road starter.

 

So just wondering, how would he need to finish out the season for you to consider him a middle of the road MLB starter? I don't have a lot of time to dig up stats for good comps but here are career minor league BB%/K%/ISO for our studs plus Zagunis and Seth Smith (since Tom brought him up):

 

KB 12.8%/26.6%/.340

Riz 9.5%/20.3%/.239

Schwarbs 14.2%/26.6%/.279

Smith 9.8%/13.2%/.198

Zagunis 15.2%/18.2%/.166

 

I'm thinking Zagunis could be a Youk type guy if he keeps this power surge up. I'd have included him but his minor stint was so short. But since OBP is more impactful than power (at least per the impact on wOBA/wRC+) it seems like having elite walk rate could make up for some lack of power.

 

Zagunis has had consistently elite walk rates, decent K rates and as you note he's got a .264 ISO in his last 212 PAs. So if he finished out the season with a .250ish ISO could you see him as a legit MLB starter?

 

Obviously grabbing a bunch of stars who had out of this world MiLB ISOs at varying ages for comparison isn't the best analysis but mostly just want this Zagunis discussion to keep going so thought I'd provide some benchmarks.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So just wondering, how would he need to finish out the season for you to consider him a middle of the road MLB starter?

 

Holding onto his gains in power while putting up a batting average more in line with his career marks. Selling out for power and hitting .250 is going to work in the PCL, but that profile getting 600 PA at the major league level is less tenable.

 

I'd also add that increasingly, calling someone a 4th outfielder isn't a pejorative. Baez is a great example of someone who can have significant impact even if you don't want to plan on him playing every day.

[Thrilho]

So just wondering, how would he need to finish out the season for you to consider him a middle of the road MLB starter?

 

Holding onto his gains in power while putting up a batting average more in line with his career marks. Selling out for power and hitting .250 is going to work in the PCL, but that profile getting 600 PA at the major league level is less tenable.

 

I'd also add that increasingly, calling someone a 4th outfielder isn't a pejorative. Baez is a great example of someone who can have significant impact even if you don't want to plan on him playing every day.

Cool, looking at Youk's career for instance, he put up some 3.5+ win seasons while hitting less than 20 HRs but he was also batting .280+ in most of those seasons and had a career BABIP of .321 and BA of .281. Zagunis's last 212 PAs comes with a .275 BA but that will get a significant haircut when he goes to the MLB. His K rate has also increased this year to a career high 22.4% so I'd think the "selling out for power" comment is fair.

 

On the 4th outfielder thing, I was responding to the "short side of the platoon" comment thinking you were talking more about a 2016 Szczur role than a Javy 500 PA role. I'm hoping for a guy who can be valuable for a contender while getting at least the type of PAs that Schwarber is getting this year. Or at least that the Cubs ask for that type of valuation on any trade if they're not going to wait and see how he shakes out.