Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-17

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (All Times Central):

 

Iowa at Salt Lake, 7:35 p.m.

Tennessee at Jackson, 6:05 p.m.

Myrtle Beach vs. Lunchburg, 6:05 p.m.

South Bend at Peoria, 6:30 p.m.

 

Probable Starters:

 

Iowa: TBA

Tennessee: RHP Zach Hedges (34.2 IP, 2.60 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 3.14 xFIP, 23 K, 5 BB)

Myrtle Beach: LHP Justin Steele (26.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 18 K, 13 BB)

South Bend: RHP Dylan Cease (28.2 IP, 1.88 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 3.00 xFIP, 43 K, 16 BB)

 

No starter is listed for either Iowa (Eddie Butler's turn) or Tennessee but it's Zach Hedges' turn. I wonder if Hedges could get called up to Iowa.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Also, we're going to the hospital tomorrow because my very pregnant wife is going to be induced. You kids are on your own for minor league game threads. Don't burn the forum down while I'm gone.

[Jaxbro]

Also, we're going to the hospital tomorrow because my very pregnant wife is going to be induced. You kids are on your own for minor league game threads. Don't burn the forum down while I'm gone.

PARTY AT THE GOAT HOUSE!!!!

 

But seriously best of luck to you and the Mrs

[We Got The Whole 9]

Cease gave up a HR but has 7:0 through 3 innings

[David]

Cease gave up a HR but has 7:0 through 3 innings

 

get his ass to myrtle

[davell]

3.2 6 2 2 1 7 final line. Had 69 nice pitches thru 3. Obviously needs to get more economical, but he seems to miss close, according to most reports, so that should come around, considering his delivery looks solid.

 

I hope Duke is there and can give us an in-person report.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

3.2 6 2 2 1 7 final line. Had 69 nice pitches thru 3. Obviously needs to get more economical, but he seems to miss close, according to most reports, so that should come around, considering his delivery looks solid.

 

I hope Duke is there and can give us an in-person report.

Duke's presence would certainly explain the dinger he gave up

[davell]

Mills is getting knocked around hard. Got to shake off the rust, I guess.

 

Zagunis is 2-2 with a 2B and HR. He's now hitting .220, yet still has an .828 OPS.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Cease threw 89 pitches according to milb.com, 56 for strikes (63%)

 

That's not that bad. They probably just fouled him off a ton. Seems he was definitely right around the zone, from purely looking at the numbers.

[davell]

I really want to see Hedges in Iowa. 7 7 2 2 2 6, 9/5 GO/FO tonight, he could find his way to being a useful guy for us.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Man, this Cease guy sucks! So terrible. Sad!

[Aaron_Kennelly]

3.2 6 2 2 1 7 final line. Had 69 nice pitches thru 3. Obviously needs to get more economical, but he seems to miss close, according to most reports, so that should come around, considering his delivery looks solid.

 

I hope Duke is there and can give us an in-person report.

 

I got some video of Cease and Mekkes that I'll post tomorrow. And I'll give an in-person report about how much Cease sucks.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Cease opened the game throwing 93-94 to the first batter or two, and then opened it up to 95-96. He came back out in the second and was 93-94 for a couple batters, and then ramped it up again. He was mostly 95-96 the rest of the game, and hit 97 quite a bit, too. I don't think he went any higher than that. For some reason they were able to pile up some hits against him. I'm not sure how; his stuff was incredible. The homer surely was because I was there to ruin him. The same batter that took him deep struck out the following at bat and offered the worst swing I've ever seen from a professional baseball player on strike 3. His control wasn't such a huge problem. He was off some, but just here and there, and usually not by much. He needs to get more economical, though, for sure. He got into a lot of deep counts. And they were able to fight him off some before he finally put them away.

 

His fastball is definitely great, obviously. He has a lot of run on it, too. He struck out several guys with high heat on swings that weren't even close. The terrible swing I previously mentioned was on some high heat. I think the guy was planning on not swinging, and then thought it would be a strike, so he started a swing, way too late on 96, and then realized it wasn't a strike and tried to stop halfway through, as the pitch ran well off the plate. He just didn't stand a chance and looked completely foolish.

 

I was sitting right behind the plate and had a good view of how much run was on his fastball. It was insane. I did wonder if he was throwing two different fastballs or maybe just a weird change or something else. He threw a few pitches at 91-92 throughout the game. And they were low and looked like they had more sink to them. He may have just taken some off.

 

He missed with the fastball some. When he throws the fastball like he wants, it's near unhittable. But he still needs to work on his command of it. The thing that stole the show, to me, was his curve, though. His curve looked incredible. Not only was it a great, big, power curve, but he was commanding it the whole night. He threw it a lot early in the count for strikes. He was nailing it, too. Bringing it just over the inside corner on righties and to the outside corner on lefties. He would bury it when he got to two strikes trying to get batters to chase. But he used it most effectively early in the count to get called strikes. Hitters rarely offered at it. It's just an impossibly difficult pitch. And he had a real great feel for it last night.

 

I didn't like what I saw from the change. It looked a little flat. And he wasn't deceiving hitters with it. They struck it well a couple of times. Maybe it was because I am measuring it up against the fastball and curve and it will do alright since hitters have to key in on those two pitches. But I think it needs a lot of work. There just wasn't the same movement or crispness with it as the other two pitches.

 

His FB, like I said, was mostly 95-96. His curve was around 78. And the change was around 81. The fastball is obviously the big thing with his velo, especially if he pumps it up closer to triple digits as it gets warmer. And it, for sure, is a great pitch. But I really was enamored by his curve. That thing is nasty. And I was kinda shocked by how well he commanded it last night. I was very impressed. He's got two excellent pitches. Hopefully he figures out the change to go with them.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Cease opened the game throwing 93-94 to the first batter or two, and then opened it up to 95-96. He came back out in the second and was 93-94 for a couple batters, and then ramped it up again. He was mostly 95-96 the rest of the game, and hit 97 quite a bit, too. I don't think he went any higher than that. For some reason they were able to pile up some hits against him. I'm not sure how; his stuff was incredible. The homer surely was because I was there to ruin him. The same batter that took him deep struck out the following at bat and offered the worst swing I've ever seen from a professional baseball player on strike 3. His control wasn't such a huge problem. He was off some, but just here and there, and usually not by much. He needs to get more economical, though, for sure. He got into a lot of deep counts. And they were able to fight him off some before he finally put them away.

 

His fastball is definitely great, obviously. He has a lot of run on it, too. He struck out several guys with high heat on swings that weren't even close. The terrible swing I previously mentioned was on some high heat. I think the guy was planning on not swinging, and then thought it would be a strike, so he started a swing, way too late on 96, and then realized it wasn't a strike and tried to stop halfway through, as the pitch ran well off the plate. He just didn't stand a chance and looked completely foolish.

 

I was sitting right behind the plate and had a good view of how much run was on his fastball. It was insane. I did wonder if he was throwing two different fastballs or maybe just a weird change or something else. He threw a few pitches at 91-92 throughout the game. And they were low and looked like they had more sink to them. He may have just taken some off.

 

He missed with the fastball some. When he throws the fastball like he wants, it's near unhittable. But he still needs to work on his command of it. The thing that stole the show, to me, was his curve, though. His curve looked incredible. Not only was it a great, big, power curve, but he was commanding it the whole night. He threw it a lot early in the count for strikes. He was nailing it, too. Bringing it just over the inside corner on righties and to the outside corner on lefties. He would bury it when he got to two strikes trying to get batters to chase. But he used it most effectively early in the count to get called strikes. Hitters rarely offered at it. It's just an impossibly difficult pitch. And he had a real great feel for it last night.

 

I didn't like what I saw from the change. It looked a little flat. And he wasn't deceiving hitters with it. They struck it well a couple of times. Maybe it was because I am measuring it up against the fastball and curve and it will do alright since hitters have to key in on those two pitches. But I think it needs a lot of work. There just wasn't the same movement or crispness with it as the other two pitches.

 

His FB, like I said, was mostly 95-96. His curve was around 78. And the change was around 81. The fastball is obviously the big thing with his velo, especially if he pumps it up closer to triple digits as it gets warmer. And it, for sure, is a great pitch. But I really was enamored by his curve. That thing is nasty. And I was kinda shocked by how well he commanded it last night. I was very impressed. He's got two excellent pitches. Hopefully he figures out the change to go with them.

Sounds similar to Butler's fastball? That thing had a ton of run.

[David]

Cease opened the game throwing 93-94 to the first batter or two, and then opened it up to 95-96. He came back out in the second and was 93-94 for a couple batters, and then ramped it up again. He was mostly 95-96 the rest of the game, and hit 97 quite a bit, too. I don't think he went any higher than that. For some reason they were able to pile up some hits against him. I'm not sure how; his stuff was incredible. The homer surely was because I was there to ruin him. The same batter that took him deep struck out the following at bat and offered the worst swing I've ever seen from a professional baseball player on strike 3. His control wasn't such a huge problem. He was off some, but just here and there, and usually not by much. He needs to get more economical, though, for sure. He got into a lot of deep counts. And they were able to fight him off some before he finally put them away.

 

His fastball is definitely great, obviously. He has a lot of run on it, too. He struck out several guys with high heat on swings that weren't even close. The terrible swing I previously mentioned was on some high heat. I think the guy was planning on not swinging, and then thought it would be a strike, so he started a swing, way too late on 96, and then realized it wasn't a strike and tried to stop halfway through, as the pitch ran well off the plate. He just didn't stand a chance and looked completely foolish.

 

I was sitting right behind the plate and had a good view of how much run was on his fastball. It was insane. I did wonder if he was throwing two different fastballs or maybe just a weird change or something else. He threw a few pitches at 91-92 throughout the game. And they were low and looked like they had more sink to them. He may have just taken some off.

 

He missed with the fastball some. When he throws the fastball like he wants, it's near unhittable. But he still needs to work on his command of it. The thing that stole the show, to me, was his curve, though. His curve looked incredible. Not only was it a great, big, power curve, but he was commanding it the whole night. He threw it a lot early in the count for strikes. He was nailing it, too. Bringing it just over the inside corner on righties and to the outside corner on lefties. He would bury it when he got to two strikes trying to get batters to chase. But he used it most effectively early in the count to get called strikes. Hitters rarely offered at it. It's just an impossibly difficult pitch. And he had a real great feel for it last night.

 

I didn't like what I saw from the change. It looked a little flat. And he wasn't deceiving hitters with it. They struck it well a couple of times. Maybe it was because I am measuring it up against the fastball and curve and it will do alright since hitters have to key in on those two pitches. But I think it needs a lot of work. There just wasn't the same movement or crispness with it as the other two pitches.

 

His FB, like I said, was mostly 95-96. His curve was around 78. And the change was around 81. The fastball is obviously the big thing with his velo, especially if he pumps it up closer to triple digits as it gets warmer. And it, for sure, is a great pitch. But I really was enamored by his curve. That thing is nasty. And I was kinda shocked by how well he commanded it last night. I was very impressed. He's got two excellent pitches. Hopefully he figures out the change to go with them.

 

is there such a thing as too much of a disparity between fb/ch? it almost seems like if you're geared up for 98 and you see 81 coming a hitter might have enough time to recognize and adjust (something that actually sounds disgustingly difficult to an average human like myself as I say it)

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Sounds similar to Butler's fastball? That thing had a ton of run.

 

Yeah, a lot like it.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

is there such a thing as too much of a disparity between fb/ch? it almost seems like if you're geared up for 98 and you see 81 coming a hitter might have enough time to recognize and adjust (something that actually sounds disgustingly difficult to an average human like myself as I say it)

 

I think I've read it's usually around 84 or so, but that's also when he's more 98 than 96. And he was at 82-83 with it, too. But it was mostly at 81. He didn't throw it much. Maybe he just was a little off with it last night.

 

But, yeah, it seems like a big disparity.

[Cubswin11]

is there such a thing as too much of a disparity between fb/ch? it almost seems like if you're geared up for 98 and you see 81 coming a hitter might have enough time to recognize and adjust (something that actually sounds disgustingly difficult to an average human like myself as I say it)

I remember last year with either Hendricks or Arrieta, Len talking about it on air after a conversation with maybe Bosio (or some coach) that yes there can be too big a gap or obviously too little a gap on the FB/CH difference. I want to say ideally they feel like it's around 4 on the low side to 7 or 8 on the high side for the margin, certainly 15+ MPH difference would be too much based on hearing that conversation last year. The margin is obviously important but throwing the FB/CH out of a similar arm slot/plane/release point is also very important.

 

Edit: Now that I think of it, it was Hendricks they were talking about. Since even though he lacks top line velo the margins he was throwing at were ideal and also able to throw the FB/CH out of pretty much the same release point/plane/slot on top of the excellent command/control.

[davell]

Awesome stuff. If the change even turns into an average offering, he's going to be able to embarrass guys. The coolest thing to me though, is you confirmed he's typically not missing by much. The fact his delivery is repeatable and there's not a ton of effort, the control shouldn't be too hard to improve. With his movement, I doubt FB command is ever going to be much, but it sounds like the CB can help eliminate those concerns too.

 

We've got our first REAL pitching prospect fellas.

 

Can't wait to hear about Mekkes too. Although I'll be a bit surprised if its an actual glowing report. His stuff doesn't dictate that, but MAYBE the deception stands out that much? Hoping anyway.

[We Got The Whole 9]

On that note, am I crazy for thinking the FO should go HS arm-heavy in this draft? It would go totally against their M.O. but I think we have enough pitchability guys to last a generation and we can find bats in any round. I'd like for them to go full upside dreaming just for once. Shotgun approach should land a couple studs.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Mekkes was really interesting. The stuff isn't great. There was some nice movement. But he was typically 87-88. He hit 91 and 92 also. And his last pitch read 95, but I'm not sure if the gun was just off. The deception was clearly taking a toll on guys, though. He got a ton of whiffs. They obviously weren't picking the ball up at all. I'm not really sure what the deal is, but he was throwing it by everyone. I've got some videos on both that I'll post in a bit.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

Here are some Cease videos:

https://streamable.com/rx2qz

https://streamable.com/1t1xy

https://streamable.com/pj2s0

https://streamable.com/aneun

https://streamable.com/vn7ta

https://streamable.com/xwu0q

[davell]

On that note, am I crazy for thinking the FO should go HS arm-heavy in this draft? It would go totally against their M.O. but I think we have enough pitchability guys to last a generation and we can find bats in any round. I'd like for them to go full upside dreaming just for once. Shotgun approach should land a couple studs.

 

In theory, taking a "complete upside" draft sounds cool. However, it doesn't truly work. 1) You'd likely be able to find a way to fit bonus demands and get the high upside kids into maybe the first 5 rounds, if you skimped out completely on 6-10. 2) The risk is there obviously, we're not in a position to just "whiff" on an entire draft class, IF things went wrong, which could happen because of, pitching.....3) It'd also present a logistics issue. Meaning you'd have the entire group starting at or near complex ball. MAYBE you find a guy who can pitch A ball his first full season, but you need to be able to mix and match players. Drafting all high school kids takes away a good bit of that flexibility. 4) You can find plenty of high upside college kids too. The perception is slightly different, but there's plenty of upside pitching options there too, and it'd help with placement too. 5) Too slow of a burn. Most teams want upper level prospects in trades and ding you, if they're taking lower level guys, due to more risk. You prefer having a few potential trade options as quick as you can get them.

 

Pure guess, but I'd say out of our 11 top 10 round picks, no more than 4 are high schoolers and if there are that many, it won't be all pitchers and it won't be taking a true upside approach, which would include massive over slots.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

And Mekkes:

 

https://streamable.com/gjeim

https://streamable.com/btcii

https://streamable.com/7i2gp

https://streamable.com/8b37h

[We Got The Whole 9]

On that note, am I crazy for thinking the FO should go HS arm-heavy in this draft? It would go totally against their M.O. but I think we have enough pitchability guys to last a generation and we can find bats in any round. I'd like for them to go full upside dreaming just for once. Shotgun approach should land a couple studs.

 

In theory, taking a "complete upside" draft sounds cool. However, it doesn't truly work. 1) You'd likely be able to find a way to fit bonus demands and get the high upside kids into maybe the first 5 rounds, if you skimped out completely on 6-10. 2) The risk is there obviously, we're not in a position to just "whiff" on an entire draft class, IF things went wrong, which could happen because of, pitching.....3) It'd also present a logistics issue. Meaning you'd have the entire group starting at or near complex ball. MAYBE you find a guy who can pitch A ball his first full season, but you need to be able to mix and match players. Drafting all high school kids takes away a good bit of that flexibility. 4) You can find plenty of high upside college kids too. The perception is slightly different, but there's plenty of upside pitching options there too, and it'd help with placement too. 5) Too slow of a burn. Most teams want upper level prospects in trades and ding you, if they're taking lower level guys, due to more risk. You prefer having a few potential trade options as quick as you can get them.

 

Pure guess, but I'd say out of our 11 top 10 round picks, no more than 4 are high schoolers and if there are that many, it won't be all pitchers and it won't be taking a true upside approach, which would include massive over slots.

Appreciate this response. I actually didn't think about those ramifications. In any event, I'm so glad they took a shot on Cease.