2017 NCAA Mock Tourney Selection

[bukie]

Anybody have any input on the last blind poll before I rank em how I see fit?

 

Because here's how I see it:

 

A-V-J-K-U-B-T-D-L-C-H-R-M-E-S-P-F-O-Q-G-I-N

[bukie]

So here's the bottom of the at-large (seeds 7 through first four) according to me:

 

25. A - Wisconsin

26. V - Michigan

27. J - Minnesota

28. K - Virginia Tech

29. U - Northwestern

30. B - Creighton

31. T - Kansas State

32. D - Oklahoma State

33. L - Miami FL

34. C - Vanderbilt

35. H - South Carolina

36. R - Arkansas

37. M - Xavier

38. E - Wake Forest

39. S - Michigan State

40. P - Rhode Island

41. F - Dayton

42. O - Seton Hall

43. Q - VCU

44. G - Providence

45. I - Marquette

46. N - Syracuse

 

[bukie]

I also believe Syracuse is not going to be in, because they are the perfect example of a team with no profile outside of their home court (and their RPI is 84). I think it's far more likely that Illinois State gets in, or USC.

 

In fact, I'll make an executive decision and slide Illinois State in, and Syracuse out. That would make the lowest RPI team left out as USC at 41, and the highest RPI at large would be Marquette at 60 (aka they are not really safe either).

[UMFan83]

What are the first 4 teams out out of curiosity? Overall looks pretty good. VCU in the first 4 is a little surprising as well as Vandy being so high with 15 losses.

[UMFan83]

I also believe Syracuse is not going to be in, because they are the perfect example of a team with no profile outside of their home court (and their RPI is 84). I think it's far more likely that Illinois State gets in, or USC.

 

In fact, I'll make an executive decision and slide Illinois State in, and Syracuse out. That would make the lowest RPI team left out as USC at 41, and the highest RPI at large would be Marquette at 60 (aka they are not really safe either).

 

That's fair. I am fine with either ISU or USC sliding in there but I think USC has a better shot of making the field than Illinois State does

[bukie]

So here's the set S-Curve, and I'm open to sliding teams around if people have questions, provided it's not "Joe Lunardi has Arizona here and you have them here, you are wrong."

 

1. Kansas

2. Gonzaga - WCC

3. Villanova - Big East

4. Baylor

5. North Carolina

6. West Virginia

7. Louisville

8. Kentucky (SEC)

9. Florida

10. Virginia

11. Purdue

12. UCLA

13. Florida State

14. Duke - ACC

15. Butler

16. Wichita State - MVC

17. Oregon

18. SMU (American)

19. Iowa State - Big 12

20. St. Mary's

21. Maryland

22. Arizona - Pac-12

23. Notre Dame

24. Cincinnati

25. Wisconsin (Big Ten)

26. Michigan

27. Minnesota

28. Virginia Tech

29. Northwestern

30. Creighton

31. Kansas State

32. Oklahoma State

33. Miami FL

34. Vanderbilt

35. South Carolina

36. Arkansas

37. Xavier

38. Wake Forest

39. Michigan State

40. Rhode Island

41. Dayton

42. Seton Hall

43. VCU (Atlantic 10)

44. Providence

45. Marquette

46. Illinois State

47. Nevada - MWC

48. UNC-Wilmington - CAA

49. Middle Tennessee - CUSA

51. East Tennessee State - SoCon

52. Ivy (Princeton)

53. Vermont - America East

54. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun

55. Bucknell - Patriot

56. Winthrop - Big South

57. New Mexico State - WAC

58. Iona - MAAC

59. Northern Kentucky - Horizon

50. Sun Belt (Troy)

60. Jacksonville State - OVC

61. Kent State - MAC

62. South Dakota State - Summit

63. North Dakota - Big Sky

64. New Orleans - Southland

65. UNC Central - MEAC

66. Texas Southern - SWAC

67. Mount St. Mary's - NEC

68. UC Davis - Big West

[UMFan83]

Just based on championship week results I'd consider moving Baylor down, Duke up, Kentucky up (still a 2 but more like 5-6), Florida and Purdue down slightly and Arizona up.

 

Most of them I'm mostly fine with, I guess the only 3 I feel strongly about moving is Baylor, Duke and Arizona.

[bukie]

Just based on championship week results I'd consider moving Baylor down, Duke up, Kentucky up (still a 2 but more like 5-6), Florida and Purdue down slightly and Arizona up.

 

Most of them I'm mostly fine with, I guess the only 3 I feel strongly about moving is Baylor, Duke and Arizona.

I do like Arizona and Duke better than I did two days ago. Baylor has a strong profile that doesn't get overly diminished with a loss to KSU. I think UNC bumps Baylor slightly, and Kentucky and Duke slide above Louisville, with Arizona sliding up above UCLA and Florida. So here's what I mean:

 

1. Kansas

2. Gonzaga - WCC

3. Villanova - Big East

4. North Carolina

5. West Virginia

6. Baylor

7. Kentucky (SEC)

8. Duke - ACC

9. Louisville

10. Virginia

11. Arizona - Pac-12

12. Florida

13. Purdue

14. UCLA

15. Florida State

16. Butler

17. Wichita State - MVC

18. Oregon

19. SMU (American)

20. Iowa State - Big 12

21. St. Mary's

22. Maryland

23. Notre Dame

24. Cincinnati

25. Wisconsin (Big Ten)

26. Michigan

27. Minnesota

28. Virginia Tech

29. Northwestern

30. Creighton

31. Kansas State

32. Oklahoma State

33. Miami FL

34. Vanderbilt

35. South Carolina

36. Arkansas

37. Xavier

38. Wake Forest

39. Michigan State

40. Rhode Island

41. Dayton

42. Seton Hall

43. VCU (Atlantic 10)

44. Providence

45. Marquette

46. Illinois State

47. Nevada - MWC

48. UNC-Wilmington - CAA

49. Middle Tennessee - CUSA

51. East Tennessee State - SoCon

52. Ivy (Princeton)

53. Vermont - America East

54. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun

55. Bucknell - Patriot

56. Winthrop - Big South

57. New Mexico State - WAC

58. Iona - MAAC

59. Northern Kentucky - Horizon

50. Sun Belt (Troy)

60. Jacksonville State - OVC

61. Kent State - MAC

62. South Dakota State - Summit

63. North Dakota - Big Sky

64. New Orleans - Southland

65. UNC Central - MEAC

66. Texas Southern - SWAC

67. Mount St. Mary's - NEC

68. UC Davis - Big West

[bukie]

So then looking at Pods for 2017:

 

1. Kansas - Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO) - Tulsa, OK Pod

2. Gonzaga - West Region (San Jose, CA) - Sacramento, CA Pod

3. Villanova - East Region (New York, NY) - Buffalo, NY Pod

4. North Carolina - South Region (Memphis, TN) - Greensboro, NC Pod

5. West Virginia - Greensboro, NC Pod

6. Baylor - Tulsa, OK Pod

7. Kentucky - Indianapolis, IN Pod

8. Duke - Orlando, FL Pod

9. Louisville - Indianapolis, IN Pod

10. Virginia - Buffalo, NY Pod

11. Arizona - Salt Lake City, UT Pod

12. Florida - Orlando, FL Pod

13. Purdue - Milwaukee, WI Pod

14. UCLA - Sacramento, CA Pod

15. Florida State - Salt Lake City, UT Pod

16. Butler - Milwaukee, WI Pod

[bukie]

So let's try a bracket:

 

Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO)

-- Tulsa, OK

1. Kansas vs 16. Mount St. Mary's - NEC / UC Davis - Big West

8. Northwestern vs 9. Vanderbilt

 

-- Milwaukee, WI

4. Butler vs 13. Princeton - Ivy

5. Wichita State - MVC vs 12. East Tennessee State - SoCon

 

-- Orlando, FL

2. Duke - ACC vs 15. Sun Belt (Troy)

7. Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs 10. Rhode Island - A-10

 

-- Salt Lake City, UT

3. Arizona - Pac-12 vs 14. Northern Kentucky - Horizon

6. Notre Dame vs 11. Dayton

 

West Region (San Jose, CA)

-- Sacramento, CA

1. Gonzaga - WCC vs 16. UNC Central - MEAC

8. Oklahoma State vs 9. Miami FL

 

-- Salt Lake City, UT

4. Florida State vs 13. Vermont - America East

5. Oregon vs 12. Middle Tennessee - CUSA

 

-- Indianapolis, IN

2. Kentucky (SEC) vs 15. Jacksonville State - OVC

7. Michigan vs 10. Wake Forest

 

-- Indianapolis, IN

3. Louisville vs 14. Iona - MAAC

6. Cincinnati vs 11. VCU / Providence

 

East Region (New York, NY)

-- Buffalo, NY

1. Villanova - Big East vs 16. Texas Southern - SWAC / South Dakota State - Summit

8. Kansas State vs 9. South Carolina

 

-- Sacramento, CA

4. UCLA vs 13. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun

5. SMU (American) vs 12. UNC-Wilmington - CAA

 

-- Tulsa, OK

2. Baylor vs 15. Kent State - MAC

7. Minnesota vs 10. Xavier

 

-- Buffalo, NY

3. Virginia vs 14. New Mexico State - WAC

6. Maryland vs 11. Seton Hall

 

South Region (Memphis, TN)

-- Greensboro, NC

1. North Carolina vs 16. New Orleans - Southland

8. Creighton vs 9. Arkansas

 

-- Milwaukee, WI

4. Purdue vs 13. Bucknell - Patriot

5. Iowa State - Big 12 vs 12. Nevada - MWC

 

-- Greensboro, NC

2. West Virginia vs 15. North Dakota - Big Sky

7. Virginia Tech vs 10. Michigan State

 

-- Orlando, FL

3. Florida vs 14. Winthrop - Big South

6. St. Mary's vs 11. Marquette / Illinois State

Edited March 12, 2017 by bukie

[bukie]

I have a feeling Wichita State and St. Mary's will be seeded lower than in here, but hopefully not much lower since the committee is actually looking at KP and such this year instead of just RPI.

[UMFan83]

Nice bracket. I agree with the changes

[bukie]

I'm curious if Dayton gets slid into the First Four, which is in Dayton.

 

I'm really skeptical that any of the near-miss decent conference regular season champs (Illinois State, Akron, UT Arlington, maybe Princeton) would sneak into the first four, like Middle Tennessee did a couple years back, but considering how poorly that ended up I don't think they'd do it without a deserving profile (which I think Illinois State has).

 

IF Illinois State makes it, that would make a total of 2 at-large teams from conferences outside the top 8, and if both Rhode Island and VCU make it, that's just 5 at-large teams from outside the top 6 conferences.

[UMFan83]

I'm curious if Dayton gets slid into the First Four, which is in Dayton.

 

I'm really skeptical that any of the near-miss decent conference regular season champs (Illinois State, Akron, UT Arlington, maybe Princeton) would sneak into the first four, like Middle Tennessee did a couple years back, but considering how poorly that ended up I don't think they'd do it without a deserving profile (which I think Illinois State has).

 

IF Illinois State makes it, that would make a total of 2 at-large teams from conferences outside the top 8, and if both Rhode Island and VCU make it, that's just 5 at-large teams from outside the top 6 conferences.

 

The scenario for Dayton feels very similar to last time Dayton was picked for the games in Dayton. Lost early in conference tourney, weakish A10, everyone thinks they are safe for a bye. Wouldn't be surprised at all if they barely make it. Not a ton of great wins on their resume.

[bukie]

Our 12 considerations that got left out:

Syracuse, USC, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, TCU, Cal, Clemson, Houston, Utah, Texas A&M

 

Just for kicks, here's the first four, VCU, and the 12 misses nitty gritty:

Team           AdjEM    1-25    26-50   51-100  101-200 200+    R/N     Conf
California     +12.69   0-7     2-1     4-3     8-1     7-0     6-9     +9.93
Clemson        +15.88   0-7     3-5     6-3     5-0     3-0     6-10    +17.26
Georgia        +12.80   0-6     1-5     9-2     7-1     1-0     7-9     +12.39
Houston        +14.47   0-4     1-1     5-3     7-2     8-0     9-6     +6.15
Illinois       +10.50   1-6     4-4     4-2     5-2     3-0     6-9     +13.71
Illinois State +14.34   1-2     0-1     2-0     17-3    6-0     12-6    +2.12
Indiana        +15.17   2-8     2-4     5-1     1-2     8-0     4-11    +13.71
Iowa           +10.62   4-3     2-5     2-4     5-2     5-0     4-10    +13.71
Marquette      +17.58   1-3     5-2     5-7     3-0     5-0     5-9     +14.82
Providence     +12.92   0-3     5-4     7-3     3-2     5-0     5-9     +14.82
Seton Hall     +13.97   0-4     6-4     6-2     3-1     6-0     9-9     +14.82
Syracuse       +14.35   3-5     3-3     3-5     4-1     5-0     2-11    +17.27
TCU            +15.28   1-11    2-2     5-2     5-0     4-0     6-9     +19.31
Texas A&M      +11.00   0-6     1-6     4-3     5-0     6-0     5-10    +12.39
USC            +12.29   2-6     0-1     3-1     13-1    5-0     10-6    +9.93
Utah           +14.72   0-4     0-2     4-2     7-2     7-1     6-8     +9.93
VCU (A-10 Bid) +14.54   0-1     2-1     6-4     11-0    6-1     10-6    +4.33

 

...and now I will go back to wondering what happens if Illinois beats Rutgers.

[bukie]

Princeton starting to pull away late in the second half, so that spot looks stable.

 

Rhode Island leads VCU by 13 at the half. If VCU loses, do they stay in?

[bukie]

Princeton wins the Ivy.

 

VCU coming back in the second half against Rhode Island.

[bukie]

Rhode Island up 5 with 30 seconds to play.

[bukie]

Rhode Island wins the A-10. Updated the bracket, VCU is in the first four.

[UMFan83]

I have a feeling one of VCU and Dayton is out. I don't think the A10 is worthy of 3 teams. And if you compare VCU and Daytons resumes, Dayton comes out slightly ahead.

[bukie]

I have a feeling one of VCU and Dayton is out. I don't think the A10 is worthy of 3 teams. And if you compare VCU and Daytons resumes, Dayton comes out slightly ahead.

If this somehow ends with Illinois making the tournament, it will be the most hilarious year ever.

 

I know USC is the consensus, but I am not too fond of their 2 top 50 wins or 5 top 100 wins.

[bukie]

In auto bid news, Troy leads Texas State by 6 at the half.

 

Kentucky is about to wrap up the SEC auto bid, which could bump their profile to the top line, potentially. Only problem is they didn't have to beat anybody decent to win the tourney.

[bukie]

Troy wins the Sun Belt.

 

Michigan and SMU comfortably ahead at the half of their games

[UMFan83]

Troy wins the Sun Belt.

 

Michigan and SMU comfortably ahead at the half of their games

 

Time to see if Sunday games do matter. I have a feeling Michigan still gets a disappointing 7 seed

[UMFan83]

I'm struggling to understand many of these rankings