2017 NCAA Mock Tourney Selection

[UMFan83]

On a side note, its rare that I am allowed the kind of concentration needed to decide between blind resumes when I'm at home with kids running around like maniacs so my contributions might be limited from here on out but we will see. Possibly later at night I'll have more time.

[bukie]

We still need about 10-14 teams to fill out the field from the team's left on the board. Once we have a rough s-curve formed we'll have open discussion of specific placements if things look weird. It's easier to compare, say, 4 teams than 20.

[UMFan83]

We still need about 10-14 teams to fill out the field from the team's left on the board. Once we have a rough s-curve formed we'll have open discussion of specific placements if things look weird. It's easier to compare, say, 4 teams than 20.

 

Here are my next 14 in order (not sure if you need them this way)

 

Miami

Virginia Tech

Northwestern

VCU

Seton Hall

Xavier

Michigan St (move above Xavier if they win)

Providence

Marquette

Wake Forest

Providence

Kansas State

Vandy

Rhode Island

Syracuse

[SouthSideRyan]

Assuming UM's teams are correct:

 

Miami

Virginia Tech

VCU

MSU

Xavier

Northwestern

Providence

KSU

Seton Hall

Wake

Marquette

Cuse

Vandy

Rhode Island

[bukie]

My thoughts on

 

Single bids: GG-TT-SS-II-BB-NN-DD-CC-UU-AA-VV-JJ-EE-MM-QQ-FF-LL-KK-OO-RR-PP-HH

 

Blind bid 13-24: G-B-F-I-R-H-O-N-L-K-C-A-Q-S-P-M-J-D-E

 

Remaining at large potentials:

Miami FL

Wake Forest

Northwestern

Marquette

Vanderbilt

Michigan State

Xavier

Arkansas

Illinois State

Virginia Tech

VCU

Seton Hall

Providence

Kansas State

USC

[bukie]

So, here's the bottom of the S-Curve:

 

47. II - MWC (Nevada)

48. SS - UNC-Wilmington - CAA

49. GG - CUSA (Middle Tennessee)

50. TT - Sun Belt (UT Arlington)

51. CC - East Tennessee State - SoCon

52. NN - Ivy (Princeton)

53. UU - America East (Vermont)

54. DD - Florida Gulf Coast - ASun

55. BB - Bucknell - Patriot

56. AA - MAC (Akron)

57. VV - Winthrop - Big South

58. JJ - WAC (New Mexico State)

59. EE - Iona - MAAC

60. MM - Northern Kentucky - Horizon

61. FF - Jacksonville State - OVC

62. QQ - Big West (UC Irvine)

63. OO - South Dakota State - Summit

64. LL - Big Sky (North Dakota)

65. KK - Southland (New Orleans)

66. RR - MEAC (UNC Central)

67. PP - SWAC (Texas Southern)

68. HH - Mount St. Mary's - NEC

[bukie]

Of course, if any of those potentials lose, the runner up would probably get bumped down the list depending on profile. Also, despite the SWAC and MEAC being in the bottom 4, only one of those conference representatives will be in the first four.

[bukie]

Also, Princeton gets hilariously screwed this year, since it's the first year the Ivy is having a tournament, so they don't get the bid despite sweeping the conference and winning it by 4 games over second-place Harvard and 8 games over 4th-place Penn. On top of that, their reward is to play Penn at Penn in the tournament opener.

[bukie]

Here's the 13-24 section of the S-curve:

 

13. G - Florida State 

14. F - Duke

15. B - Butler

16. R - Wichita State

17. N - Oregon

18. O - SMU

19. H - Iowa State

20. Q - St. Mary's

21. I - Maryland

22. A - Arizona

23. L - Notre Dame

24. C - Cincinnati

[bukie]

So, let's put it all together as to what we've got:

 

S-Curve:

1. Kansas

2. Gonzaga

3. Villanova

4. Baylor

5. North Carolina

6. West Virginia

7. Louisville

8. Kentucky

9. Florida

10. Virginia

11. Purdue

12. UCLA

13. Florida State

14. Duke

15. Butler

16. Wichita State

17. Oregon

18. SMU

19. Iowa State

20. St. Mary's

21. Maryland

22. Arizona

23. Notre Dame

24. Cincinnati

...

47. MWC (Nevada)

48. UNC-Wilmington - CAA

49. CUSA (Middle Tennessee)

50. Sun Belt (UT Arlington)

51. East Tennessee State - SoCon

52. Ivy (Princeton)

53. America East (Vermont)

54. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun

55. Bucknell - Patriot

56. MAC (Akron)

57. Winthrop - Big South

58. WAC (New Mexico State)

59. Iona - MAAC

60. Northern Kentucky - Horizon

61. Jacksonville State - OVC

62. Big West (UC Irvine)

63. South Dakota State - Summit

64. Big Sky (North Dakota)

65. Southland (New Orleans)

66. MEAC (UNC Central)

67. SWAC (Texas Southern)

68. Mount St. Mary's - NEC

 

That leaves 22 teams left to sort out:

Arkansas

Creighton

Dayton

Kansas State

Marquette

Miami

Michigan

Michigan State

Minnesota

Northwestern

Oklahoma State

Providence

Rhode Island

Seton Hall

South Carolina

Syracuse

VCU (A-10 Bid)

Vandy

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Wisconsin

Xavier

 

And 11 teams currently missing out:

Illinois State

USC

California

Houston

TCU

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Utah

Georgia

Texas A&M

 

Of those only Arkansas is still alive in their conference tournament (Alabama is also to spoil a bid). The A-10 bid could also still be stolen by Richmond or Davidson. The remaining 6 multi-bid leagues can only be won by teams already in the field.

Edited March 11, 2017 by bukie

[bukie]

Things of note:

- Oregon is way underseeded here compared to the bracket matrix, but there's no bias involved in the selection, so part of it is their profile is just not that strong in comparison to other teams. The weak Pac-12 hurts their top 50 profile. It's really no better than Wichita State's profile.

- Movement among the seeds we already have is still possible, as profiles do keep changing as teams keep winning in conference tournaments, but again keep in mind that the placement thus far was just based on profile, not team name, so if someone thinks Oregon, Arizona, North Carolina, Kentucky, or Notre Dame should move up, we should compare their profiles to the teams above them.

- I'll get a blind poll set up for those last 22 teams this morning.

[bukie]

Also of note, every 1 seed from a single bid league won yesterday to make their conference final. That means there are 11 1-seeds playing today with a chance to win their auto bid, which has never happened before. So far, only 6 1-bid 1 seeds have lost in their conference tourneys, which could make things interesting in the NIT selection.

[bukie]

Here's the blind poll for the last 22 at-larges:

Team AdjEM   1-25   26-50  51-100 101-200200+   R/N    Conf
A    +21.91  1-3    8-3    6-2    4-0    5-0    9-6    +13.77
B    +19.91  1-2    4-3    7-3    7-0    4-0    13-4   +14.82
C    +17.01  3-2    2-6    8-5    4-1    2-0    8-9    +12.38
D    +22.09  2-9    6-2    5-1    2-0    4-0    9-7    +19.31
E    +17.32  1-7    2-6    5-0    8-0    3-0    8-10   +17.27
F    +15.76  0-1    2-2    8-1    5-3    8-0    9-5    +4.33
G    +12.92  0-3    5-4    7-3    3-2    5-0    5-9    +14.82
H    +17.01  2-2    1-3    12-5   2-0    3-0    7-7    +12.38
I    +17.58  1-3    5-2    5-7    3-0    5-0    5-9    +14.82
J    +16.79  2-3    6-3    6-2    6-0    4-0    7-5    +13.77
K    +14.92  3-5    5-2    3-1    5-1    6-0    7-8    +17.27
L    +16.95  3-8    3-3    2-0    8-0    5-0    7-9    +17.27
M    +15.37  0-4    5-6    6-3    10-0   0-0    9-9    +14.82
N    +14.35  3-5    3-3    3-5    4-1    5-0    2-11   +17.27
O    +13.97  0-4    6-4    6-2    3-1    6-0    9-9    +14.82
P    +14.29  1-1    1-3    5-3    9-1    6-1    9-6    +4.33
Q    +14.54  0-1    2-1    6-4    11-0   6-1    10-6   +4.33
R    +15.25  0-4    3-2    10-1   6-1    5-0    9-5    +12.38
S    +14.95  3-7    3-3    4-3    4-1    4-0    5-12   +13.77
T    +17.59  4-8    2-3    4-2    5-0    5-0    9-8    +19.31
U    +16.78  2-3    4-5    4-2    9-0    4-0    9-6    +13.77
V    +21.57  4-2    4-6    4-3    5-0    5-0    7-8    +13.77

[bukie]

And yes, that is an at large candidate with a 2-11 road/neutral record, and the 2 wins were by 1 point and in OT.

[bukie]

Vermont wins the America East bid.

 

UT Arlington trails by 9 at the half in the Sun Belt semis.

[SouthSideRyan]

Vermont wins the America East bid.

 

UT Arlington trails by 9 at the half in the Sun Belt semis.

 

And there's a huge drop off in quality if memory serves like a 2 seed drop

[SouthSideRyan]

And yes, that is an at large candidate with a 2-11 road/neutral record, and the 2 wins were by 1 point and in OT.

 

I'd love to see them left out by the actual committee even if it turns out they belong

[bukie]

UNC Central wins the MEAC.

[bukie]

Vermont wins the America East bid.

 

UT Arlington trails by 9 at the half in the Sun Belt semis.

 

And there's a huge drop off in quality if memory serves like a 2 seed drop

Yeah, it'll be either Texas State, Georgia State or Troy now, and it's a significant drop in profile regardless.

 

Princeton hangs on to win at Penn.

[SouthSideRyan]

I wouldn't be shocked Id Arlington gets an at large now they don't deserve it and id fight against it but it just seems like a message pick the committee would try to send

[SouthSideRyan]

UNC Central wins the MEAC.

 

If anyone but TX Southern wins the SWAC then NCC should get the bye

[bukie]

Yesterday's auto bids and potential bid thievery:

- A-10: Rhode Island beat Davidson, eliminating a potential bid thief

- A-10: VCU beat Richmond, eliminating a potential bid thief

- ACC: Duke won the ACC, opening an extra at-large bid

- AMERICAN: SMU beat UCF, eliminating a potential bid thief

- AMERICAN: Cincinnati beat UConn, eliminating a potential bid thief

- AEAST: Vermont wins the America East as the 1 seed

- BIG 12: Iowa State wins the Big 12, opening an extra at-large bid

- BIG EAST: Villanova wins the Big East, opening an extra at-large bid

- BIG SKY: North Dakota wins the Big Sky as the 1 seed

- BIG WEST: 2 seed UC Davis upset 1 seed UC Irvine to win the Big West, and I think they're going to the first four

- CUSA: Middle Tennessee wins the CUSA as the 1 seed

- MAC: 6 seed Kent State upset 1 seed Akron to win the MAC. Kent State has the basic profile of UC Irvine, so they'll get slotted where Irvine was

- MEAC: UNC Central wins the MEAC as the 1 seed

- MWC: Nevada wins the MWC as the 1 seed

- PAC-12: Arizona wins the Pac-12, opening an extra at-large bid

- SEC: Kentucky beat Alabama, eliminating a potential bid thief

- SOUTHLAND: New Orleans wins the Southland as the 1 seed

- SUN BELT: UT Arlington lost in the Sun Belt semis, dropping the auto bid profile for that league significantly (6 spots or more)

- SWAC: Texas Southern wins the SWAC as the 1 seed

- WAC: New Mexico State wins the WAC as the 2 seed, but they had the best profile anyway

 

Today's finals feature no potential bid thieves:

- A-10: VCU vs Rhode Island

- American: SMU vs Cincinnati

- B1G: Michigan vs Wisconsin

- IVY: Princeton vs Yale

- SEC: Kentucky vs Arkansas

- SUN BELT: Texas State vs Troy

[bukie]

Here are yesterday's effects on the bottom of the bracket:

 

47. Nevada - MWC

48. UNC-Wilmington - CAA

49. Middle Tennessee - CUSA

51. East Tennessee State - SoCon

52. Ivy (Princeton)

53. Vermont - America East

54. Florida Gulf Coast - ASun

55. Bucknell - Patriot

56. Winthrop - Big South

57. New Mexico State - WAC

58. Iona - MAAC

59. Northern Kentucky - Horizon

50. Sun Belt (Troy)

60. Jacksonville State - OVC

61. Kent State - MAC

62. South Dakota State - Summit

63. North Dakota - Big Sky

64. New Orleans - Southland

65. UNC Central - MEAC

66. Texas Southern - SWAC

67. Mount St. Mary's - NEC

68. UC Davis - Big West

[bukie]

UNC Central wins the MEAC.

 

If anyone but TX Southern wins the SWAC then NCC should get the bye

I think NCC gets the bye anyway, and SD State gets slid into the first four (since they weren't the top seed).

 

So I'm expecting the first four to be Texas Southern, South Dakota State, Mount St. Mary's and UC Davis.

[bukie]

Anybody have any input on the last blind poll before I rank em how I see fit?