Adam Eaton to the Nats?

[toonsterwu]

The problem with this trade is that the Nats could have signed Dex for just money and used those prospects and Robles to add Archer(and maybe Colome too)

 

As it is, they've got a CF, evidently aren't getting an ace, and are trying to find a closer without prospect inventory now.

 

I'm not sure how much budget flexibility they actually have right now. Wasn't it last trade deadline where they were supposedly very limited financially?

 

I'm of the opinion that Robles shouldn't have been moved. He's that good of a talent, and if you buy that he might have some more power ... if all goes well, we might be talking top 5 prospect in baseball next year.

 

Whether or not they could've landed Archer/Colome, don't know. That said, a rotation of Scherzer/Strasburg/Roark/Gonzalez/Ross is plenty good, and with Voth/Cole, there's some depth. I'm sure they'll add other pieces. Would adding an ace have made that great? Perhaps (and I wonder if the subsequent move, had they added a Sale, would be to move Joe Ross to closer), but it's still a very good, probably top 10 rotation in baseball.

 

I'm also of the opinion that you can find pen arms/groom a youngster for it. Neftali Feliz is still out there, and he had a nice bounceback year with that velo. Actually, I'd love to see AJ Cole shifted to short inning duty, where the fastball may play back up again. Koda Glover could be groomed for that closer role, and should start the year in the pen. Their system isn't bereft of talent - it's just thin. They could deal Fedde if they wanted. They had a good year with some raw talent - Soto looks promising, Joan Baez looks like he could get fast-tracked as a pen arm if they wanted, but probably goes step by step as they keep him as a starter.

[davell]

I obviously love prospects, but when you're in their spot, you've got to go for it now. Bryce is gone soon enough. Max is a pitcher and getting older. Looking at untested minor leaguers to fill important roles in your pen, if you're them, should be a non-starter.

 

I'm unsure of their exact monetary situation, but they went into the meetings thinking they could get both Cutch and Sale.....And were bidding on Melancon on top of those goals. So, I'm certainly not thinking that money for Dex was an issue.

[toonsterwu]

I obviously love prospects, but when you're in their spot, you've got to go for it now. Bryce is gone soon enough. Max is a pitcher and getting older. Looking at untested minor leaguers to fill important roles in your pen, if you're them, should be a non-starter.

 

I'm unsure of their exact monetary situation, but they went into the meetings thinking they could get both Cutch and Sale.....And were bidding on Melancon on top of those goals. So, I'm certainly not thinking that money for Dex was an issue.

 

Well, first off, we don't know they could've gotten Archer/Colome. Would I trade Victor Robles in a deal for Archer? Sure, but maybe they didn't feel Archer was worth it, or maybe the Rays didn't think they had enough. We really don't know the internal workings.

 

2nd, didn't they limit their Melancon bidding at something like 12 mil AAV. While that isn't chump change, that isn't a ton. McCutchen and Sale combined would've been what, 22 mil or so for 2016. With Dex pushing for 18 AAV (and I don't think he gets that) and not looking like he's going to settle anytime soon, perhaps they made a decision that the cost was too high and the time lost with others would be an issue. Don't know.

 

They clearly pivoted to their preferred Plan B, so internally, they probably their decision board set up. It's not like the Nationals pen is a problem. I think that we're forgetting that they have pretty solid pen options coming back. Shawn Kelley, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis is a nice threesome to work with in the pen. I forget their 2nd lefty right now, but they had one last year. Koda Glover is deserving of a shot. They added a big arm in Jimmy Cordero. Really, what we're talking about basically is the lack of a closer (or if you think Kelley can close, and I think he could, then a lack of a stronger 8th inning option). They really aren't depending on untested minor leaguers for key roles unless those players earn them. (unless they punt on adding another arm to the mix ... I agree they need one more arm).

[davell]

You're right, we don't know the inner workings of deals. Cutch and Sale are 26 mill in 2017 though. So, signing Dex and adding Archer(or Quintana) would work financially. Hell, it would have allowed them to trade off Gio too.

 

We don't know what truly WAS an option. But, based on who was available, this looks like a very bad allocation of resources to me.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

They coulda had McCutchen for less!?

 

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[David]

They coulda had McCutchen for less!?

 

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Reminder that McCutchen is coming off a 0.7 win season, is two years older, owed $14M next year ($15M team option for 2018 - granted 1 year + option limits the risk on the upside play but i think the nationals are in a place where they need more certainty), defensively graded out a lot worse than Eaton's bad CF season, while Eaton is coming off a 6 win season (yes, he played RF but he still played like a near 4 win player when he was meh to bad in center in 14-15 - possibly injured) owed $18.4M total for the next 3 seasons, with team options for the next two years totaling $20M.

[jehr]

I love this trade, because I see it potentially as a lose-lose for both teams. Nat's overpaid for Eaton, whom I think is very good, but not great. This was all about getting a very good, controllable player with a team-friendly contract. Dex would have provided comparable value over the next couple of years, at a higher dollar cost. So the Nats just gave away three high-ceiling arms to save what, $10 mil a year, after they'e all but acknowledged they're not going to pony up for Harper? In today's market, not sure that math works as a win for the Nats. This is definitely a win-now-while-we-still-have-Harper kind of move.

 

When you look in aggregate, the Whitesox offensively have basically replaced Eaton with Moncada. Moncada's ceiling is quite a bit higher, but if you shoot for the middle of his ceiling and floor, you're probably realizing Eaton's offensive value. So by giving up Eaton and Sale, offensively, they gained years of control and saved some money for likely comparable production, with a decent-to-good chance of significantly more production, while stockpiling arms, which is where the majority of the return-value from those two trades lies. I don't think anyone here fails to see the risks with an approach that looks more like the Mets. Personally, not a fan of stockpiling arms to that extreme. I'd rather have a killer lineup and have to plug holes in the back-end of the rotation from year to year than have a never-ending supply of high-ceiling arms and have to get creative or overpay for offense. I'm glad the Sox aren't taking our approach to stockpile bats.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Some huge move by the White Sox, but for their sake, I hope they don't think they're done. Quintana and Abreu are the obvious candidates, but both of them are young and have 2-3 years under team control, so there's no urgency to move them now. The next steps should be to move Frazier, Robertson, and Melky.

[toonsterwu]

They coulda had McCutchen for less!?

 

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I'd take Eaton over McCutchen. Part of it comes down to the fact that I buy Eaton being hurt in 2015 hurt him defensively, and that he isn't that horrendous as a CF. More importantly, McCutchen feels like a guy right on the edge (Adam Jones falls into this mix for me) - guys who are declining, and who knows when they fall faster. I guess I could buy McCutchen bouncing back a bit, but he has to move off CF.

 

I think the more telling thing for me is that Giolito was being thrown around like he was nothing special and just another intriguing young righty. I mean, I guess it was sort of known by year's end that the FO here didn't view him as their top arm, but for an organization to throw around a young arm like this ... it's like they were worried his stock would fall precipitously and wanted to get something sooner than later. I'm sure if I thought long and hard about it, I could think of exceptions, but it feels like most times than not, when orgs are forcefully trying to move someone, those guys rarely pan out the way they might've been once expected. Again, I'm sure there's cases to contradict this (I think the Braves had soured on Adam Wainwright back in the day, IIRC).

 

As for which trade I would've preferred - I'd take that Eaton deal partly because I think Eaton's a better fit for the Nats, and partly because I'm not convinced Lopez is a starter.

[toonsterwu]

Some huge move by the White Sox, but for their sake, I hope they don't think they're done. Quintana and Abreu are the obvious candidates, but both of them are young and have 2-3 years under team control, so there's no urgency to move them now. The next steps should be to move Frazier, Robertson, and Melky.

 

I think Frazier and Melky are gone ASAP (both are impending FA's, I think). Robertson's a tougher case. I could see him moved in the winter. That said, there's a limited no-trade, and he's signed down for two more years. He's also coming off a somewhat down year compared to 2015. If the market isn't there, one could argue that they are better off holding onto him and letting him try to rebound a bit.

 

My guess? Since they know each other's systems so well by now, it wouldn't surprise me, if after Kenley signs, that Robertson gets shipped to the Nationals for something like Andrew Stevenson and a lottery ticket like Anderson Franco. Of course, as I type that, that might not be enough for Hahn, so who knows. Hard to see the loser of Kenley (Marlins or Dodgers) jump into Robertson, but could be wrong.

[jehr]

Some huge move by the White Sox, but for their sake, I hope they don't think they're done. Quintana and Abreu are the obvious candidates, but both of them are young and have 2-3 years under team control, so there's no urgency to move them now. The next steps should be to move Frazier, Robertson, and Melky.

 

I think Frazier and Melky are gone ASAP (both are impending FA's, I think). Robertson's a tougher case. I could see him moved in the winter. That said, there's a limited no-trade, and he's signed down for two more years. He's also coming off a somewhat down year compared to 2015. If the market isn't there, one could argue that they are better off holding onto him and letting him try to rebound a bit.

 

My guess? Since they know each other's systems so well by now, it wouldn't surprise me, if after Kenley signs, that Robertson gets shipped to the Nationals for something like Andrew Stevenson and a lottery ticket like Anderson Franco. Of course, as I type that, that might not be enough for Hahn, so who knows. Hard to see the loser of Kenley (Marlins or Dodgers) jump into Robertson, but could be wrong.

With the money FA closers are getting... if Robertson has a good first half, I could see him fetching more at the next trade deadline than he would right now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

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