Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-24-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa has the day off

 

Tennessee won 6-5 Box Score

 

SS C. Young 1/3, R, 2B (23), RBI, BB, K

C V. Caratini 0/4, K

3B J. Vosler 0/4, 3 K

SP M. Wagner 6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 3-8 GO-FO, 101-59 pitches-strikes

RP RJ Alvarez 1.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0-1 GO-FO

 

Myrtle Beach won 2-1 (10 innings) Box Score

 

LF C. Burks 0/3, R< BB, 2 K, outfield assist at homee

CF D. Dewees 0/4

DH I. Rice 1/3, 2B (11), BB, K, CS (2)

RF Je. Baez 0/3, outfield assist at home

SS A. Ely 2/4, 2B (7), RBI, K, E (8, fielding)

3B J. Hodges 0/4, 3 K

SP P. Morrison 5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP, 6-2 GO-FO, 75-48 pitches-strikes

RP E. Leal 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 1-2 GO-FO

 

South Bend won 11-10 (10 innings) on a walk-off Adonis Paula force out Box Score

 

2B C. Sepulveda 3/5, 3 R, 2B (13), RBI, K

C PJ Higgins 1/3, R, 2B (28), 2 RBI, 2 BB, K, PB (15)

1B A. Mineo 0/4, RBI, 2 K, 2 E (3, fielding, fielding)

LF E. Jimenez 2/5, 2 R, 2B (39), HR (14), 3 RBI, K

3B-1B M. Rose 3/5, 2 R, 2B (13), HR (12), 2 RBI, K

RF E. Martinez 1/5, 2B (24), RBI, K

SS A. Monasterio 0/3, R, BB, 2 K, HBP

SP A. Alzolay 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 8-2 GO-FO, 92-65 pitches-strikes

 

Eugene was one-hit and lost 1-0 Box Score

 

CF DJ Wilson 0/4

2B Y. Peguero 0/3, K, E (8, fielding)

3B W. Galindo 0/3, K, E (15, throw)

1B T. Giambrone 1/3

SP M. Rondon 3.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 3-0 GO-FO, 90-55 pitches-striikes

RP D. Mekkes 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 2-1 GO-FO

 

AZL Cubs lost 4-0 Box Score

 

CF L. Ayala 4/5, 2B (4)

SS I. Paredes 0/3, BB

1B M. Cruz 0/2, 2 BB, K

DH K. Zamudio 0/4, 2 K

3B R. Mejia 0/4, K

SP P. Ochoa 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 4-2 GO-FO

RP Y. Gomez 3 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 5-1 GO-FO

 

DSL Cubs 1 won 2-1 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 2's game was suspended (Rain) with the score 0-0 in the fourth inning Box Score

[CaliforniaRaisin]

With the bases loaded and none out, this is how South Bend won their game:

 

Adonis Paula flies into a force out, center fielder Cam Gibson to shortstop David Gonzalez to second baseman Will Maddox. Matt Rose scores. Eddy Martinez to 3rd. Andruw Monasterio out at 2nd. Adonis Paula to 1st.

 

Eloy Jimenez and Matt Rose both hit a double and a home run today.

[craig]

.When Eloy exploded in May with that huge month, he struck out 22% of the time. In the 245 PAs since he's K'd 15.5% of the time with a still very badass .341/.380/.546 line.

 

Yeah, the K-rate for Eloy has really been a great story. It's improved dramatically since April and May, and has almost gotten better and better month by month. What pre-season scouting suggested might be a serious problem (there was talk about "holes" and "long swing"), now seems like a major asset.

 

There have been so many clips of him. Just eye-ball, it looks like he's got a really good stance and swing, looks like very good balance and plate coverage. Seems to use all fields very well and cover the outside half very well. Obviously the clips are all of successful swings. So perhaps those are all the "guess right" pitches; maybe anything in the low-inside quadrant kills him, and maybe there are lots of "guess wrong" pitches where he looks way out of balance, beats me.

 

But man just by the video-clip eye-ball test, his swing look really practical and nice. What a great trajectory this season has had for him.

 

The HR-output has probably come in some spurts, as often happens with HR guys. But overall his season has been uncommonly consistent, not a lot of cold spells.

[CubsWin]

Yeah, I've been thinking about trades lately. I wonder what a package of Soler, Happ, Candelario and one of the arms (Cease/De La Cruz/Clifton) could bring back. Probably something pretty damn good, hopefully with 3+ years of team control.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah, I've been thinking about trades lately. I wonder what a package of Soler, Happ, Candelario and one of the arms (Cease/De La Cruz/Clifton) could bring back. Probably something pretty damn good, hopefully with 3+ years of team control.

Not that they should bring it back, but a package including all those guys better bring back Stanton, Trout (obviously Eloy and others would have to go) or Fernandez if they are all going in 1 deal.

[CubsWin]

Yeah, I've been thinking about trades lately. I wonder what a package of Soler, Happ, Candelario and one of the arms (Cease/De La Cruz/Clifton) could bring back. Probably something pretty damn good, hopefully with 3+ years of team control.

Not that they should bring it back, but a package including all those guys better bring back Stanton, Trout (obviously Eloy and others would have to go) or Fernandez if they are all going in 1 deal.

Yeah, that's kind of what I was envisioning. Not Trout or Stanton because I had pitching on my mind (and I highly doubt a package like that would bring back 1 of the top 10 players in baseball), but a young TOR guy with team control would be great for the Cubs going forward. Fernandez specifically? I doubt that gets it done. It might be close. I just don't know enough to say definitively. But if I can get someone similar for a group of talented spare parts and prospects without disrupting my major league core or including Jimenez, I'd do it for the right guy.

 

I don't know if it can be done, but I'd be on the look out for the right opportunity to pop up for sure.

[craig]

I don't anticipate Cubs being able to bundle prospects for big-tickets for budget reasons.

 

Given the crazy salary inflation existing Cubs will experience over the next 5 years, I don't think imagine we'll be seeing many if any big-salary guys added from the outside.

 

For this winter, I'm just hoping we can retain one or both of Chapman and Fowler.

[craig]

I don't anticipate Cubs being able to bundle prospects for big-tickets for budget reasons. Given the crazy salary inflation existing Cubs will experience over the next 5 years, I don't think imagine we'll be seeing many if any big-salary guys added from the outside. For this winter, I'm just hoping we can retain one or both of Chapman and Fowler.

 

They won't outpace the revenues the Cubs will be generating in that time span thanks to improved ticket sales, gains from deep playoff runs and likely a WS or two, improved merch and concessions, and then there's the monster media rights deal/s coming at the end of the decade. Hell, in media rights money alone they might come out ahead.

 

That's good, and I'll hope/trust that you're right. Still, I'm not sure. There are going to be some massive salary jumps as Bryant, Hendricks, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, and Contreras go through arb, and assuming Arrieta resigns. It is going to require some massive, massive increases in revenue to outpace the increase in costs.

 

They really wanted Heyward. By account, getting him was possible because management "got creative", and they discussed the thin FA market this winter, almost as if they understood themselves to be "spending ahead" and using this winter's discretionary spending money ahead of time. So, I don't think they've got a big stash of saved-up discretionary cash now, as might have been true entering the lester derby.

 

Perhaps this summer has been so unbelievably good from the start that merchandizing revenue is greatly exceeding what they could have objectively/conservatively assumed last November. So perhaps revenue will be at or beyond their most optimistic projections, and they'll have a much bigger stash of discretionary money this winter than they could have expected following the Heyward signing.

 

I could see Chapman returning, but that's the most major FA they'll go after unless Otani became available (he won't). After that, given the state of FA talent until 2019 I doubt we see them make a huge FA signing until Otani or that group - whichever is first. They will use that lull to extend whoever they can and deem worthy, I assume Contreras or Russell will be first. I expect trades to be their main avenue for acquiring bigger ticket outside talent for the next couple years, particularly this offseason, and see a big ticket trade or two to be more inevitable than unlikely. There's been too much smoke with the Cubs and big trades going back to their Hamels waiver claim in 2014 for nothing to come of it, just a matter of time. The trade rumor names have gotten bigger too - in the past 12 months we've heard names like Fernandez and Trout, so almost undoubtedly these guys are biding their time.

 

I'd be pleased if the Cubs had the cash to retain both Chapman and Fowler. Again, I don't know their finances, so maybe that's beyond their means.

*But the pen would look totally different without Chapman,

*and if he goes they're still going to need to plow resources into getting other help there.

*The drop off from Fowler to Almora/Szczur offensively might be pretty substantial, too. So if $$ permitted, I'd be pretty pleased to extend Fowler for 2-3 years.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah, I've been thinking about trades lately. I wonder what a package of Soler, Happ, Candelario and one of the arms (Cease/De La Cruz/Clifton) could bring back. Probably something pretty damn good, hopefully with 3+ years of team control.

Not that they should bring it back, but a package including all those guys better bring back Stanton, Trout (obviously Eloy and others would have to go) or Fernandez if they are all going in 1 deal.

Yeah, that's kind of what I was envisioning. Not Trout or Stanton because I had pitching on my mind (and I highly doubt a package like that would bring back 1 of the top 10 players in baseball), but a young TOR guy with team control would be great for the Cubs going forward. Fernandez specifically? I doubt that gets it done. It might be close. I just don't know enough to say definitively. But if I can get someone similar for a group of talented spare parts and prospects without disrupting my major league core or including Jimenez, I'd do it for the right guy.

 

I don't know if it can be done, but I'd be on the look out for the right opportunity to pop up for sure.

The idea of obtaining this young, controllable TOR arm (or even MOR arm) seems just as fictitious and unattainable as acquiring Trout or Stanton. Those guys hardly exist and when they do teams keep them or trade them for known commodities not other prospects. Also pitchers suck, never deplete the farm system for them.

[CubsWin]

Not that they should bring it back, but a package including all those guys better bring back Stanton, Trout (obviously Eloy and others would have to go) or Fernandez if they are all going in 1 deal.

Yeah, that's kind of what I was envisioning. Not Trout or Stanton because I had pitching on my mind (and I highly doubt a package like that would bring back 1 of the top 10 players in baseball), but a young TOR guy with team control would be great for the Cubs going forward. Fernandez specifically? I doubt that gets it done. It might be close. I just don't know enough to say definitively. But if I can get someone similar for a group of talented spare parts and prospects without disrupting my major league core or including Jimenez, I'd do it for the right guy.

 

I don't know if it can be done, but I'd be on the look out for the right opportunity to pop up for sure.

The idea of obtaining this young, controllable TOR arm (or even MOR arm) seems just as fictitious and unattainable as acquiring Trout or Stanton. Those guys hardly exist and when they do teams keep them or trade them for known commodities not other prospects. Also pitchers suck, never deplete the farm system for them.

Guess I'm just reaching for the dream then. Keep hope alive.

[Cubswin11]

 

The idea of obtaining this young, controllable TOR arm (or even MOR arm) seems just as fictitious and unattainable as acquiring Trout or Stanton. Those guys hardly exist and when they do teams keep them or trade them for known commodities not other prospects. Also pitchers suck, never deplete the farm system for them.

 

Unfortunately pitchers are necessary and, whatever you want to label the arm, that trade for one is more likely to happen than not as 2018 draws closer. The farm will recover, prospects are much easier to find than actual impact ML talent.

I don't disagree, obviously you need pitching and need good pitching. We wouldn't be where we are this year on offense alone, the pitching is just as important. I just think it's incredibly hard to identify and acquire the right "controlled" arm that is so often cited due to pitchers general suckage and unpredictability.

 

Just to give an example 2-3 years ago Jimmy Nelson was a pitcher that could be defined as young and controllable with upside that at the time would've taken probably at least 1 of a Happ, Soler, Jeimer, etc. type talent for and now he's 4 ERA, replacement level, pitcher just 1-3 years later at 27.

 

I get we are going to need pitching sooner than later, I'd rather just spend the money on them (or use a high volume of draft picks on them like recent years) than give up real assets unless they are proven guys (like Hamels last year) or if it's through a trade target a guy like Montgomery who maybe turns into something but only costs ancillary minor league pieces.

[David]

 

The idea of obtaining this young, controllable TOR arm (or even MOR arm) seems just as fictitious and unattainable as acquiring Trout or Stanton. Those guys hardly exist and when they do teams keep them or trade them for known commodities not other prospects. Also pitchers suck, never deplete the farm system for them.

 

Unfortunately pitchers are necessary and, whatever you want to label the arm, that trade for one is more likely to happen than not as 2018 draws closer. The farm will recover, prospects are much easier to find than actual impact ML talent.

I don't disagree, obviously you need pitching and need good pitching. We wouldn't be where we are this year on offense alone, the pitching is just as important. I just think it's incredibly hard to identify and acquire the right "controlled" arm that is so often cited due to pitchers general suckage and unpredictability.

 

Just to give an example 2-3 years ago Jimmy Nelson was a pitcher that could be defined as young and controllable with upside that at the time would've taken probably at least 1 of a Happ, Soler, Jeimer, etc. type talent for and now he's 4 ERA, replacement level, pitcher just 1-3 years later at 27.

 

I get we are going to need pitching sooner than later, I'd rather just spend the money on them (or use a high volume of draft picks on them like recent years) than give up real assets unless they are proven guys (like Hamels last year) or if it's through a trade target a guy like Montgomery who maybe turns into something but only costs ancillary minor league pieces.

 

also, i very much trust our FO to find guys under the radar, especially with whatever magic we have going between our defense and coaching staff.

[craig]

....especially with whatever magic we have going between our defense and coaching staff.

 

That's a great point. I think a lot of kinda average guys will put up good numbers in front of this great defense.

 

An average pitcher who doesn't need to get stretched too deep because there's a strong pen behind him, who has great defense, and who pitched in front of a good offense can start a lot of games that the team will win.

 

If they bring back Chapman, and Rondon comes back healthy and like his normal self, and Edwards becomes a consistent guy, they could end up with a really good bullpen.

[David]

I don't disagree, obviously you need pitching and need good pitching. We wouldn't be where we are this year on offense alone, the pitching is just as important. I just think it's incredibly hard to identify and acquire the right "controlled" arm that is so often cited due to pitchers general suckage and unpredictability.

 

Just to give an example 2-3 years ago Jimmy Nelson was a pitcher that could be defined as young and controllable with upside that at the time would've taken probably at least 1 of a Happ, Soler, Jeimer, etc. type talent for and now he's 4 ERA, replacement level, pitcher just 1-3 years later at 27.

 

I get we are going to need pitching sooner than later, I'd rather just spend the money on them (or use a high volume of draft picks on them like recent years) than give up real assets unless they are proven guys (like Hamels last year) or if it's through a trade target a guy like Montgomery who maybe turns into something but only costs ancillary minor league pieces.

 

Gambling on a ~Nelson type talent - healthy with a good arm, high pedigree, some ML success and/or experience, and lots of minor league success - is how they found their current ace. I think it's a route they will have to go down, and are capable of going down eventually, to avoid consistently paying the super high prices for established guys via trade or FAs. That said, I would like them to get a more established guy on their next trade too, nothing wrong about targeting the obvious once in a while when it is out there.

 

their current ace is a guy they traded garbage for to gamble on. as far as i can tell, you're talking about trading good things for such a thing.

[Cubswin11]

I don't disagree, obviously you need pitching and need good pitching. We wouldn't be where we are this year on offense alone, the pitching is just as important. I just think it's incredibly hard to identify and acquire the right "controlled" arm that is so often cited due to pitchers general suckage and unpredictability.

 

Just to give an example 2-3 years ago Jimmy Nelson was a pitcher that could be defined as young and controllable with upside that at the time would've taken probably at least 1 of a Happ, Soler, Jeimer, etc. type talent for and now he's 4 ERA, replacement level, pitcher just 1-3 years later at 27.

 

I get we are going to need pitching sooner than later, I'd rather just spend the money on them (or use a high volume of draft picks on them like recent years) than give up real assets unless they are proven guys (like Hamels last year) or if it's through a trade target a guy like Montgomery who maybe turns into something but only costs ancillary minor league pieces.

 

Gambling on a ~Nelson type talent - healthy with a good arm, high pedigree, some ML success and/or experience, and lots of minor league success - is how they found their current ace. I think it's a route they will have to go down, and are capable of going down eventually, to avoid consistently paying the super high prices for established guys via trade or FAs. That said, I would like them to get a more established guy on their next trade too, nothing wrong about targeting the obvious once in a while when it is out there.

 

The offense and defense being so good will allow them to take gambles, be a little more eclectic, about SPs they target in the long run.

Yes, but we got that without giving up real assets and the argument here has been needing or wanting to trade real prospect assets for such pitchers. We can trade all the Vogelbach's, Zagunis's etc. of the systems you want for those types of pitchers but not the real prospects that have real value.

[CubsWin]

I just think the time is now for the Cubs and soon to get a really high quality starter, the more proven the better. During the rebuild was the time to take a gamble. Now is the time to go spend for someone the FO identifies as their guy, especially if he can be gotten without disrupting the big league's core.

 

I'm totally down for simply buying them on the FA market, but you run the great risk of the back end of those contract years being very empty and turning into the Detroit Tigers. If money is no option for the Cubs moving forward, great. But if it is, trading for the right arm is the next best option. These types of pitchers aren't a myth. They exist. It's just that they're highly sought after.

 

The right situation has to come along, though. Hamels was a great example. A team needing to rebuild that has a top notch pitching asset (White Sox, etc.). It could also be a team that has built around pitching and needs offense like the Mets, Braves or Rays. Theo, Jed and Jason have earned my trust. I don't know enough to identify the right guy, but there's a list of arms from which he might emerge.

[David]

I just think the time is now for the Cubs and soon to get a really high quality starter, the more proven the better. During the rebuild was the time to take a gamble. Now is the time to go spend for someone the FO identifies as their guy, especially if he can be gotten without disrupting the big league's core.

 

I'm totally down for simply buying them on the FA market, but you run the great risk of the back end of those contract years being very empty and turning into the Detroit Tigers. If money is no option for the Cubs moving forward, great. But if it is, trading for the right arm is the next best option. These types of pitchers aren't a myth. They exist. It's just that they're highly sought after.

 

The right situation has to come along, though. Hamels was a great example. A team needing to rebuild that has a top notch pitching asset (White Sox, etc.). It could also be a team that has built around pitching and needs offense like the Mets, Braves or Rays. Theo, Jed and Jason have earned my trust. I don't know enough to identify the right guy, but there's a list of arms from which he might emerge.

 

horsefeathers pitchers. We have a somewhat patched together staff putting up historically great run prevention numbers. We don't need to dump assets for some proven starter panacea guy. Between the FO and Bosio and whatever else is at play, we have consistently been able to do this for years now. And with our defense it only makes even more sense.

 

And "object"

[CubsWin]

I just think the time is now for the Cubs and soon to get a really high quality starter, the more proven the better. During the rebuild was the time to take a gamble. Now is the time to go spend for someone the FO identifies as their guy, especially if he can be gotten without disrupting the big league's core.

 

I'm totally down for simply buying them on the FA market, but you run the great risk of the back end of those contract years being very empty and turning into the Detroit Tigers. If money is no option for the Cubs moving forward, great. But if it is, trading for the right arm is the next best option. These types of pitchers aren't a myth. They exist. It's just that they're highly sought after.

 

The right situation has to come along, though. Hamels was a great example. A team needing to rebuild that has a top notch pitching asset (White Sox, etc.). It could also be a team that has built around pitching and needs offense like the Mets, Braves or Rays. Theo, Jed and Jason have earned my trust. I don't know enough to identify the right guy, but there's a list of arms from which he might emerge.

 

[expletive] pitchers. We have a somewhat patched together staff putting up historically great run prevention numbers. We don't need to dump assets for some proven starter panacea guy. Between the FO and Bosio and whatever else is at play, we have consistently been able to do this for years now. And with our defense it only makes even more sense.

 

And "object"

Ha! It took me a bit to figure out what the "And object" was all about. Thanks for catching that.

 

You make a good point about horsefeathers pitchers and what the Cubs have been able to do with Bosio. It has been absolutely amazing. I just wonder how much longer they can continue to find diamonds in the rough and polish them up.

 

I also wonder what happens if they don't re-sign Arrieta and Lackey and Hammel leave (as they should) after 2017. They're gonna need somebody (maybe a couple of somebodies) who's really good. If money is no...object...then there won't be much of a problem except for the back end of those FA contracts. The ideal is to somehow acquire (via IFA, draft or trade) a younger, controllable starter entering his prime. Injury is less likely, performance drop off is less likely, performance improving is more likely, future cost control, value, etc.

 

It's possible, though highly improbable, that someone already in the organization could develop fast enough to make an impact by 2018. The draft won't likely get someone to the bigs by 2018, especially someone really good with the Cubs picking at the end of round one. Otani is an...option...but no one is sure whether he'll be made available by 2018. Teheran fits the bill pretty well. And if Bosio and the Cubs brass identify somebody like Gausman or whomever they think they can polish up, I'm all for that, too.

 

But I'm also willing to pay the price to package some of the assets the Cubs have to get someone really good to extend the window beyond next year. I like what the Cubs did last off season. They were aggressive and recognized now is the time to pounce. As much as it hurt to give up Gleyber for a few months of Chapman, the Cubs signaled they are all in yet again. Maybe if they win a world series this year and/or next, they'll be more patient and allow 2018 to have a lesser staff while they develop their in house options. But the offense is set to be really good for a long time. If they don't do what it takes to keep the pitching really good too, they risk squandering a golden opportunity that they worked really hard to build. I don't see that happening.

 

I look forward to see what path they take.

[Cubswin11]

What would be a good ETA on Cease if he turns out to what he can be? 2019?