Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-15-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won 6-4 Box Score

 

Tennessee won 9-4 Box Score

 

Myrtle Beach vwon 5-1 Box Score

 

South Bend won 3-2 Box Score

 

Eugene won 6-3 Box Score

 

AZL Cubs lost game one 9-1 (7 innings) Box Score

 

AZL Cubs (game two) in progress Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 1 lost 7-0 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 2 won 10-1 Box Score

[CubsWin]

Fun with arbitrary end points....Kellogg since 5/23:

 

71 IP / 62 Ks (21.9%), / 8 BBs (2.8%!!) / 5 HRs / 59 Hs

 

BBRef has him at a 46% GB rate, 44% for the year, and a 9% pop up rate

 

That's much more along the lines of what I expected of him, nice to see. I think he looks night and day delivery wise - more of a power pitcher's delivery, more legs, better angle to the plate - than either in college, last year with Eugene, or even early this year.

 

If he can break out next year in High A and AA, get some AAA in, then at 24 - pretty standard for a pitcher - he'll maybe have a shot to compete for a job at the ML level in 2018. He could also be traded, I'm sure giant healthy lefties who throw tons of strikes have some appeal.

Have you heard/read any scouting report info on him lately?

[CubsWin]

His curveball and overall delivery is better is all I've got, no clue on velocity.

 

----

 

Underwood is starting for the AZL Cubs in game 1 of a DH. Paredes is 1-1, that's nice.

Underwood finished with 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB and 2 K.

 

Paredes now up to .298 with 2 singles on the night so far...

[CubsWin]

Bloomquist pitched for SB instead of Kellogg. Promotion?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Glad to see Underwood avoided surgery again, but like Pierce Johnson, he's probably forcing himself into being a reliever with so few innings due to injury every season.

 

(Obviously Johnson was also ineffective this season, forcing the matter.)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Glad to see that Bloomquist wasn't lost in the shuffle at South Bend, I'm still intrigued by him.

[davell]

Hedges goes 5 4 0 0 1 4. I think he's the most intriguing of guys that weren't truly on the radar. The stuff seems normalish, but I think you have to wonder if he's just got that pitchibility factor, like Hendricks.

[craig]

Hedges excellent again, 3rd straight AA shutout outing. But taken out after only 5 innings/60 pitches. Hope he's OK.

 

WHIP under 1 for Tennesse.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hedges bears more in common with Hendricks than 'doesn't throw hard but does well'. He's the homeless man's version of Hendricks, but if you're already properly couching him as a depth/org arm, then Hendricks is the archetype that Hedges fits.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Bloomquist pitched for SB instead of Kellogg. Promotion?

 

Kellogg is ready for one and it's possible but South Bend actually didn't have a starter listed today. Today would have been Kellogg's turn so I just dropped him in there instead of listing "TBA."

[Thrilho]

Hedges goes 5 4 0 0 1 4. I think he's the most intriguing of guys that weren't truly on the radar. The stuff seems normalish, but I think you have to wonder if he's just got that pitchibility factor, like Hendricks.

 

I was just jumping on to comment on him. He's coming out of nowhere to looks like a legit contender for the 2017 rotation. Here are some things that stood out when I was reading about him.

 

- The three articles below all reference him either adding velocity from the 89-91 he was working at last year

 

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#safe=strict&q=zach+hedges+scout+low+90s "commands a fastball in the low 90s"

http://www.cubsinsider.com/cubs-milb-first-half-review-lot-surprising-performances-improved-development/ "gained some mph on his fastball"

https://cubscentral.wordpress.com/2016/06/17/1st-half-breakouts-prospects-hits-misses-and-to-be-determined/ "gained a few pounds, and gained a couple miles an hour on his fastball"

 

- In BA's tools article he got "Best Control" for the Carolina League. He's got a career 2.01 BB/9. 1.70 in 2016.

 

- 1.94 GO/AO in 2016. 1.77 for career. 3.50 in 25 AA innings coming into this game. Supposedly the sinker is his best pitch and he goes for ground balls with it

 

- 4 HR in 126.2 IP for 2015. 9 HR in 278 IP career

 

- Good workload. 23 starts for 132 IP in 2015, 21 starts for 126.2 so far in 2016

 

- .235 BAA in 2016, .244 career

 

- Has gotten stronger at AA, with a 1.80 ERA in AA innings

 

- 6'4" 210 (or 195 according to FG, but he looks a lot more like the 210)

 

The bad news is the career 6.03 K/9, but our boy Kyle "Dead Eyes" Hendricks was only at 7.45 through AA. So maybe the rest of that stuff will be good enough for this guy to slot into the bottom of our rotation for a while. I mean, why have the best defense in the league if you're not going to graduate sinker ballers to help batters feed baseballs into the thresher?

[Thrilho]

Hedges bears more in common with Hendricks than 'doesn't throw hard but does well'. He's the homeless man's version of Hendricks, but if you're already properly couching him as a depth/org arm, then Hendricks is the archetype that Hedges fits.

 

Ha, well I read this after posting. Luckily enough I mentioned Hendricks only in passing. As usual with pitchers I feel like I've got no idea because I'm uneducated on their stuff. But right now I'm hoping to pull at least one guy out of the system who can be free 2017 rotation filler, with close to league average performance over 175+ innings if they have an elite defense behind them. I don't see a lot of guys close enough, so I'm hoping Hedges can be something. But if someone who knows him better tells me he's probably no good I'll temper my excitement a bit.

[Thrilho]

The bad news is the career 6.03 K/9, but our boy Kyle "Dead Eyes" Hendricks was only at 7.45 through AA.

 

That is not small, especially at the levels of ball, and particularly in conjunction with Hendricks' even better control, better offspeed, throwing more innings, and being younger at this stage.

 

The Hendricks thing wasn't legit with Williams last year, likely won't be legit with Hedges next year, but if we keep watering him down and throwing the comp out eventually one will hit.

 

---

 

19 YO Javier Assad starting game 2 for the AZL squad. He's quietly racked up 38 Ks in 30.2 IP this year. Perhaps he too....?

 

It wasn't meant to be a comp. I put it out there to say not everyone needs a stellar minor league K rate to make it in the majors. A comp would be to compare the rest of his game and say "this guy is Hendricks-lite" or "he could be another Hendricks." Something like that. Hendricks is one of the best in MLB right now; I'm just hoping for a ground ball, low walk profile guy can fit into the back end of the rotation.

[Thrilho]

Btw I don't think davell's usage was a comp either. Saying a low walk, ground ball profile with low velocity might work due to pitchability is a reasonable assertion. By throwing in the "like Hendricks" I don't think he means "and he's got a shot to mold himself into one of the best pitchers in the games." Hendricks is just an easy guy to point to and say "that's pitchability in action, maybe this guy has some of that."

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hedges bears more in common with Hendricks than 'doesn't throw hard but does well'. He's the homeless man's version of Hendricks, but if you're already properly couching him as a depth/org arm, then Hendricks is the archetype that Hedges fits.

 

Sure, Hedges kept his walk rate below 2 this year and throws a sinker. Beyond that they really have nothing in common. Hendricks was still better all around in the minors with a plus pitch to go with it. To me it's shoehorning in a name and selling Hendricks short, and I'm not even the biggest Hendricks fan. There's pleeeeenty of other RHs in pro ball that could work

 

Don't do this semantical hand-wringing about the surgical accuracy of a comp, it's uninteresting and ultimately pointless because no one was aiming for that level of precision.

 

Kyle Hendricks is great, and he succeeds in an uncommon way. Zach Hedges is not someone who is projected to succeed at the MLB level, but if he does it would be in a similar way as Hendricks, by combining elite control with an ability to prevent hard contact. Hedges also is a bit unique, there's only a handful of SP in MiLB who do those three things as well as he does(BB%, HR rate, BABIP). Hedges is ultimately unlikely to make it happen(hence the 'homeless man's' comparison), but in the absence of a better comparison that people would be as familiar with, it makes the point.

[CubsWin]

19 YO Javier Assad starting game 2 for the AZL squad. He's quietly racked up 38 Ks in 30.2 IP this year. Perhaps he too....?

It hasn't been quietly for me. Ever since there was a report during ExST that he was hitting mid-90s, I've been watching closely. Once he got into games, the velo reports dipped a bit, though. Decent size at 6'1", 200 lbs. Has been really coming on of late. Had a couple of rough outings in June, but since then, he gone 26.2 IP, 25 H, 2.03 ERA, 1 HR, 6 BB, 31 K.

 

He just turned 19 two weeks ago. With development, he could be an interesting 19-year-old member of Eugene's rotation next season which could also include Erling Moreno (20 in January) and Tyson Miller (21).

[craig]

...

- The three articles below all reference him either adding velocity from the 89-91 he was working at last year

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#safe=strict&q=zach+hedges+scout+low+90s "commands a fastball in the low 90s"

http://www.cubsinsider.com/cubs-milb-first-half-review-lot-surprising-performances-improved-development/ "gained some mph on his fastball"

https://cubscentral.wordpress.com/2016/06/17/1st-half-breakouts-prospects-hits-misses-and-to-be-determined/ "gained a few pounds, and gained a couple miles an hour on his fastball"

- In BA's tools article he got "Best Control" for the Carolina League. He's got a career 2.01 BB/9. 1.70 in 2016.

- 1.94 GO/AO in 2016. 1.77 for career. 3.50 in 25 AA innings coming into this game. Supposedly the sinker is his best pitch and he goes for ground balls with it

- 4 HR in 126.2 IP for 2015. 9 HR in 278 IP career

...

 

Thanks for the links regarding scouting and velocity. I believe the original draft report had him as a guy who could max in the 92-93 range, so the concept that he's added some velocity and can now actually regularly control low 90's velocity sounds pretty decent. If he's locating a good, every-day sinker at 90-92, that's hardly overpowering, but that's a perfectly reasonable fastball to build around. Low 90's sinker is plenty good.

 

Granted, I'm skeptical: if one of the Cubs prospect sites refers to low 90's, my guess is that really means he'll max in the low 90's but probably throws most of his every-day fastballs more in the 87-90 range?

 

Their's nothing fishy about his present results. We'd like the K's higher, but the BB/HR are nice and low. K/BB/HR, excellent on 2 of the 3.

 

Agree with Tom, using the "Hendricks" comp has mixed value. Obviously that's general code for a guy who's velocity-short. But, Hendricks change is a plus-plus pitch. Hendricks without the change is a totally different guy, and there is little evidence that Hedges or Ryan Williams or any of those finesse guys has a Hendricks-like change.

 

But, I think we all understand that any "Hendricks" reference is simply alluding to a guy who lacks velocity but somehow is usefully good anyway.

 

Hedges, I think, supposedly has a very fine slider. Hopefully that becomes a signature pitch for him. There have been lots of effective sinker/slider guys over the years, so for Hedges to make it with that combo would hardly be unprecedented.