Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-26-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won game one of a doubleheader 6-5 (8 innings) Box Score

 

CF J. Andreoli 0/5, K

LF M. Zagunis 2/5, R, 2 K

1B D. Vogelbach 2/3, 2 R,HR (14), RBI, BB

3B J. Candelario 0/2, 2 BB

SP R. Zastryzny 7 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 16-2 GO-FO, 111-69 pitches-strikes; batting: 1/3

 

Iowa - game two - PPD - Rain

 

Tennessee won 3-0 Box Score

 

CF J. Hannemann 2/5, R, SB (25), CS (7)

3B C. Young 0/3, BB, K

2B I. Happ 3/4, 2B (2), RBI

C V. Caratini 0/3, R, BB

RF B. McKinney 2/3, R, BB

SP P. Blackburn 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K, 85-52 pitches-strikes

RP J. Paniagua 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K, 1-1 GO-FO

 

Myrtle Beach won 2-1 Box Score

 

LF C. Burks 1/3, R, HR (6), RBI, BB

CF R. Crawford 0/4, K

DH G. Torres 1/4, K, CS (6)

C I. Rice 2/4, R, HR (1), RBI, K, E (1, missed catch)

3B J. Vosler 1/4

SS A. Ely 0/2, BB

SP J. Stinnett 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP, 1 WP, 10-4 GO-FO, 90-61 pitches-strikes

RP R. McNeil 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-0 GO-FO

 

South Bend won 11-1 Box Score

 

2B C. Sepulveda 2/4, 2 R, 2B (7), RBI, K, E (6, fielding)

C PJ Higgins 3/4, 3 R, 2B (16), 3 RBI, 2 BB

CF D. Dewees 2/6, 2B (12), RBI, 2 K

LF E. Jimenez 2/2, 2 RBI, SB (5) - left game for PH in the fourth inning

RF E. Martinez 2/5, R, 2B (12), K

1B T. Alamo 1/4, R, HR (3), 3 RBI, K, HBP

SP K. Miller 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 6-4 GO-FO, 74-47 pitches-strikes

 

Eugene won 4-1 Box Score

 

SS A. Monasterio 1/3, R

RF K. Mitchell 1/4, R, HR (1), 2 RBI, 2 K

1B M. Rose 1/4, RBI, 2 K

3B W. Galindo 1/3, R, K, E (3, fielding)

2B Y. Peguero 0/2, BB

SP M. Rondon 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 6-3 GO-FO

RP MT Minacci 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1-1 GO-FO

 

AZL Cubs, DSL Cubs 1 and DSL Cubs 2 had the day off

[ctcf]

Eloy was pinch hit for in the 4th after going 2-2. Hopefully they were just tired of seeing him hit and decided to send him to Myrtle Beach ASAP.

[CubInOK]

So if I decide to watch the I-Cubs today, who should I look for? I know they have had a lot of graduations lately.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So if I decide to watch the I-Cubs today, who should I look for? I know they have had a lot of graduations lately.

 

Position players: Candelario, Zagunis, Vogelbach. Pitchers: Zastryzny starting plus Black, Peña and Rivero out of the pen.

[craig]

No update on Jimenez but some key numbers I noticed:

vs. LHP: .683 OPS

vs. RHP: 1.038 OPS

 

Thanks Tom, that's very unusual and interesting.

 

I wonder if lefties just never even try to come inside on him, so he never gets pull pitches? Whereas righties sometimes try to bust him inside, sometimes to their regret? Something to keep an eye on for future, though.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Vogelbomb.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Eloy was pinch hit for in the 4th after going 2-2. Hopefully they were just tired of seeing him hit and decided to send him to Myrtle Beach ASAP.

 

They were also already up 6-1, so it could have been as simple as giving him the rest of the afternoon off.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Happ is 7 of 10 with 2 2B, a HR, and 1/1 BB/K to start at AA.

 

Also, Happ makes 3 consecutive 1st rounders to reach AA within a calendar year of their debut(I'm rounding, Happ debuted 6/19/15 and his last Myrtle Beach game was 6/19/16). I wonder how many times(if any) that's happened before.

[Thrilho]

Happ is 7 of 10 with 2 2B, a HR, and 1/1 BB/K to start at AA.

 

Also, Happ makes 3 consecutive 1st rounders to reach AA within a calendar year of their debut(I'm rounding, Happ debuted 6/19/15 and his last Myrtle Beach game was 6/19/16). I wonder how many times(if any) that's happened before.

I'm putting together my top 30 to roll out on Tim's prospect list tool, and was curious about how his defense was looking at second. So far, across A+/AA he's got a .968 fielding percentage and 4.36 RF/9 with 7 errors and 31 double plays turned in 52 games (.60 per game).

 

For reference:

 

2016 2B Zobrist: .991 Fld% 4.00 RF/9 31 Double plays in 67 games (.46 per game)

Career 2B Zobrist: .987 Fld% 4.47 RF/9 .52 double plays per game

MLB 2B Javy: .968 Fld% 4.87 RF/9 31 double plays in 52 games (.60 per game)

MiLB 2B Javy: .971 Fld% 5.97 RF/9 24 double plays in 37 games (.65 per game)

 

So it looks to me like Happ is picking up second base pretty well. I'd have figured he would have made a lot more errors by this point or shown much worse range. This says his range has been a good deal better than 2016 Zobrist. And he's turned more double plays on a rate basis than Zobrist. 2016 Zobrist is clearly not an all world measuring stick, but he's been a pretty good defender his whole career and did it with a 4.47 RF/9 at second.

 

Happ has also cut his K rate down quite a bit lately. In June he's at 16.5% for both K rate and walk rate, after striking out at 25.8% in April and May. Definitely torn right now on where to rank him, but he's doing a good job answering the questions I had about him early in the season.

Edited June 27, 2016 by Thrilho

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Ian Rice with his first homer for Myrtle Beach.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'm definitely coming around big time on Happ. Before the season, I wasn't high on him. I mentioned my reservations had a lot to do with how he performed after getting called up to South Bend last year. The K-rate scared me, as I thought it would continue to creep up. And if his K-rate was that high, the lowered walk-rate in South Bend wasn't going to fly either. This year, he's walked like he did in Eugene. And his K-rate has been stable. The fact that his K-rate keeps getting lower as the year goes along is great, too. He's only struck out once in his last 8 games. For him, that's pretty much unbelievable.

 

And, though it's just a few games, I'm thrilled with how he's hit the ground running in AA. If you look at the troubles Benintendi had to start his AA career, after running roughshod through the lower levels, you know this production this early after his call-up isn't a given.

[Thrilho]

Ian Rice with his first homer for Myrtle Beach.

In his first game at catcher. They DH'd him the first two

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Ian Rice with his first homer for Myrtle Beach.

In his first game at catcher. They DH'd him the first two

 

Didn't catch that. He has a caught stealing, to boot!

[Thrilho]

I'm definitely coming around big time on Happ. Before the season, I wasn't high on him. I mentioned my reservations had a lot to do with how he performed after getting called up to South Bend last year. The K-rate scared me, as I thought it would continue to creep up. And if his K-rate was that high, the lowered walk-rate in South Bend wasn't going to fly either. This year, he's walked like he did in Eugene. And his K-rate has been stable. The fact that his K-rate keeps getting lower as the year goes along is great, too. He's only struck out once in his last 8 games. For him, that's pretty much unbelievable.

 

And, though it's just a few games, I'm thrilled with how he's hit the ground running in AA. If you look at the troubles Benintendi had to start his AA career, after running roughshod through the lower levels, you know this production this early after his call-up isn't a given.

Agreed. I think I'm going to rank him ahead of Almora on my list. Love Almora's floor, his fit with the team, and likelihood of reaching the level of a 3 win player. But Happ's walk rate coupled with these power binges, and it looking more likely like he'll stick at second makes him a really high ceiling player. Even if he doesn't stick full time on the infield and he strikes out at 25-30% in MLB he could be really valuable.

[Thrilho]

Holy horsefeathers fun fact of the researching day so far. Zagunis's walk rate in the AFL last year was 28.8%. 19 walks in 66 PAs. That went along well with his 15.6% in 512 PAs at MB. So far this year he's at a paltry 13.3%. Career 17.5% K rate, at 18.2% for this year. Yup, this guy is definitely going somewhere ahead of McKinney.

[Thrilho]

Also, Jose Albertos (2015 $1.5M bonus) is going into my top 10. This might have already been posted on and I missed it, but here's the AZ Phil write up on his start from the other day:

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/jose-albertos/0

 

"The 17-year old Albertos was masterful beyond his years in his four innings of work, staying ahead in the count (69% of his pitches were strikes) and mixing a 96-98 MPH fastball with a plus-change and an occasional curve to keep the opposing hitters off-balance. In fact, the Albertos change-up was so deceptive that one D'backs hitter injured his right knee (and had to leave the game) screwing himself into the ground on a swinging third strike trying in vain to hit one. The only hit off Albertos was a broken-bat line drive single over the third-baseman's head with two outs in the top of the 1st."

 

I know the results were posted the other day, but again that was in a 4 IP 1 H 1 BB 7 K game. So a 17 year old who is already throwing 96-98 with a plus change, and who is so far filling the strike zone? And enough teams liked him that the Cubs had to pay him $1.5M? Buying

[Thrilho]

Here's a pretty good article on Ian Rice. I was curious about his defensive skills, and it looks like he's thought of as a pretty good catcher.

 

https://cubscentral.wordpress.com/2016/05/30/prospect-profile-ian-rice-going-full-throttle-this-year/

 

"The catcher, like most catchers drafted after the 20th round, was to be an organizational catcher – you know, a bullpen catcher, defensively minded, and not much of a long term future. "

 

"While Rice’s performance this season has been great, he has always been known for his receiving skills..."

 

"Rice held his commitment to Houston and did not have the best year of his life in 2015 as a Cougar. While people raved about his defensive skills, his bat waned, but his approach did not. While he did hit .255, he had an amazing OBP of .427 his junior year. I am sure many organizations focused just on the batting average, the Cubs did not."

 

It's kind of weird he'd have dropped to the 29th round with a batting line of .298/.456/.485 and a 10 HR year to his name if people thought he was a great defensive catcher. I'd guess it was because he put up most of those numbers at Chipola College and only had a .255/.427/.364 at Houston in his junior year. Either way he's mashing now, so who cares why he dropped. His peripherals have always been really good and he's now hitting for a bunch of power. I'm slotting him in at 8, just ahead of Caritini.

[Tim]

I need a wee bit more than 156 PA from Rice to move him up that high. But he's definitely got my attention at this point.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wow, Ian Rice in the top 10 is far too rich for me. Maybe it's just that I'm not used to a developmental system that can produce major league position players with later draft picks and that's why I'm lower than most on Chesny Young, Ian Rice, PJ Higgins, etc.

 

I can see Albertos in the top ten. The talent and pedigree are obviously there, even if he's incredibly far away.

[craig]

...https://cubscentral.wordpress.com/2016/05/30/prospect-profile-ian-rice-going-full-throttle-this-year/

 

... he has always been known for his receiving skills..."

.... While people raved about his defensive skills,

.... if people thought he was a great defensive catcher. .....

 

I suspect cubscentral may be prone to hyperbole, as regards his defense.

 

It's very hard to be an above-average defensive catcher in the major leagues.

It's very hard to be an average or acceptable defensive catcher in the major leagues.

 

I'll take Rice a lot more seriously if/when I get some more trustworthy enthusiasm about his chances to be an average or above-average defensive catcher.

[Thrilho]

...https://cubscentral.wordpress.com/2016/05/30/prospect-profile-ian-rice-going-full-throttle-this-year/

 

... he has always been known for his receiving skills..."

.... While people raved about his defensive skills,

.... if people thought he was a great defensive catcher. .....

 

I suspect cubscentral may be prone to hyperbole, as regards his defense.

 

It's very hard to be an above-average defensive catcher in the major leagues.

It's very hard to be an average or acceptable defensive catcher in the major leagues.

 

I'll take Rice a lot more seriously if/when I get some more trustworthy enthusiasm about his chances to be an average or above-average defensive catcher.

 

Yeah, I totally get all these concerns about having him up that high, particularly if you need more information on his defense. I wasn't saying that the guy is expected to be an above average major league catcher. Just that according to the article he was regarded as an above average college catcher. From there, I'm also drawing a line with the remarks from the BA article saying he was their favorite late round Cubs pick. I figure that there's at least some consideration of his defense in there.

 

Then I'm not only evaluating based on his success as a pro. A 20% walk rate and 15% K rate in college was pretty good. Again, most of it was at a small school, but when he's got a 17% walk rate in A ball to go along with it you've got to figure he's got a pretty good eye. And he hasn't just been kind of doing pretty good at the plate. He's been mashing. .278 ISO in the MWL. And at 6'1" 185 you figure there's plenty of size to think the power is real.

 

So even if he has to move off catcher and do a Zagunis he could have some decent value. If he's not a catcher for sure then he'd be behind Caritini, but there just aren't many guys in the system who are mashing at this level. And I'm pretty biased against pitchers. I mostly do these rankings with the thought of "who would I rather lose in a trade?" And if I'm ranking guys at this very moment with no further information I'd be very hesitant to trade Ian Rice.

Edited June 27, 2016 by Thrilho

[Thrilho]

Of course, my methods of ranking guys about whom I have little information doesn't always work great. EJM is dropping like 15 spots from his 8th place ranking in my beginning of season ranking.

 

But another interesting fact I just found as I was comparing Torres vs Happ. Torres has a 14.6% walk rate in June. Only .133 ISO during that stretch, but I'm probably happier with the walks coming back than I would be with more power at this point in his career.

[Thrilho]

Of course, my methods of ranking guys about whom I have little information doesn't always work great. EJM is dropping like 15 spots from his 8th place ranking in my beginning of season ranking.

 

15? This seems as reactionary as 8 in the preseason. Its not like theres been tons more info, its been a little over half a minor league season.

I figured he'd be a center fielder, but he's only got 8 CF starts in 63 games to go with his .236/.359/.359 line and 21.5% K rate. And it's not like Dewees is an uber prospect where you couldn't do more of a time split. It probably would've been more prudent to leave him out of the top 10, but right now I don't feel too bad about a big drop for him. One thing about these rankings is that this is what I feel about the guy now. If new information comes out that makes me change my mind I will, but right now there's not much outside the $3M signing bonus to say EJM should be in the top 20.

[Tim]

I was just checking out the new entries in the rankings.

 

Thrilho - did you mean to leave out Contreras?

[Thrilho]

I was just checking out the new entries in the rankings.

 

Thrilho - did you mean to leave out Contreras?

Yeah, figured he's up for good and wanted to see Jimenez at number 1. But I'll put Contreras in at number 1 if we're still ranking him.