Cubs and Weak Contact

[Ding Dong Johnson]

http://66.media.tumblr.com/7bb5421d6b58810d046b13b9e5ec0231/tumblr_mz9yk7vctL1tpe7lxo1_400.gif

[Banedon]

http://cdn.wikimg.net/strategywiki/images/1/16/Mega_Man_1_boss_Fire_Man.png

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'm not seeing it on front page, but you can link but clicking through to cubs articles tab on front page.

 

Tim might have to put it on the front page. Here is a link, though: http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/24-statcast-fun-with-addison-russell

 

if my last post doesn't make my feelings obvious, good stuff, man.

 

just need to find a way to get eyeballs on these.

 

A couple things I found interesting with the Russell piece...

 

When looking up those stats for the hard-hit low liners, it's kinda uncharted territory. Like, nobody is really tracking BABIP on hard-hit, low liners. And who knows exactly what it means? Or if it can really be used for anything. And when looking that stuff up, it's, like, OK, I know precisely what I am looking for. "I want those balls that are smashed and eat up infielders, or just barely elude them. And these parameters I've set should give me those balls." But, you don't really know what's in there. What if something weird is going on? Then you do the search, and you look at the results that come up, and you click on the Cubs' listing and you can see what happened on each ball and it looks good. And then there is video with a lot of them.

 

That paragraph that I linked all of those Russell plays -- those were literally all of the outs in those results that had video attached. They were exactly what I was looking for when I started the search. I watched a number of videos from a number of teams, both the hits and outs. And they were all exactly what I was searching for. Statcast is horsefeathering awesome.

 

And, then, you can start comparing these numbers to other things. Like, I wanted 100 mph+. That's when you are talking about the really hard-hit balls. 90 mph is also kinda hard, though. Not so much. The BABIP on 100+ while hit out there is .618. From 90-99: .512. Already a big drop from a 10 mph loss. But maybe you want to drop the threshold down some to get a larger sample. No biggie, let's set the minimum at 90: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=90&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results

 

Oh, Addi's still leading the way.

 

 

Then, you don't know what the numbers mean. Or if they can tell you anything. What if defensive positioning is skewing things too much? What if a team just knows where to put their fielders? So you search from the beginning of last year until when Addi took over at short, and the Cubs are the second-worst team in the league at making outs on these balls. And then you search from then until now and the Cubs are easily the best. The only thing that really changed was swapping Castro out for Russell. And this is something I've never heard of until making the search. Sure, I know Addi is a better defender overall. But, I have no idea what this data is going to say. And it more than confirms my suspicions.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Also, it would be nice if they would include fielding data in this. Like, route efficiency, first step, and total ground covered and all that. With some of the balls-in-play data, you can't really tell what's going on. For instance, if we set the maximum threshold at 9 degrees launch angle and no minimum, in order to get all non-fly balls of at least 100 mph, here are the results:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=babip&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results

 

Cubs in first with a .257 BABIP. Next lowest is at .375. There's more data, but some of it is useless, like this ball that ends up an easy, rolling grounder: http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2016/05/11/681356083/1462938225430/asset_1200K.mp4

 

So you set the minimum launch angle at 0 degrees because nearly all of those balls are a tough play. But, there is some stuff in that expanded group, below 0 degrees launch angle, that was interesting. Like, this ball: http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2016/04/15/591259983/1460750845744/asset_1200K.mp4

 

It was a similar rolling grounder, hit really hard, but he had to go get that one. Add in some fielding data and, baby, we've got a stew going.

[Tim]

I put this out to twitter. Hopefully it gets the attention it deserves. (and hopefully I twittered correctly!)

[Aaron_Kennelly]

OK, one last post on the subject.

 

I thought those spray charts I showed at the end were interesting, too. Addi makes those plays so often, that we are (at least I am) kinda numb to it. It's just like, "Oh nice play, Addi." But, it's hard to quantify how many times he makes a "good" play. And I think DRS and UZR do a good job of measuring defense. But, all that's really going on there are that people are putting zones on defenders and when a ball goes through the zone, they measure how likely it is that a normal defender makes a play there. And you get credits and debits when you make or don't make plays, and you get value based on how often these people think a play should be made.

 

But, we really don't have solid evidence of, "Hey this guy is making this particular play at X amount of the time, compared to this other guy at Y amount." This can do that. We have to look no further than those spray charts. You can tell the difference between a good defender and a bad defender. It's quite obvious. Gregorius is letting everything past him when it is smashed back at him. There are dots littering the outfield. He's barely made a few stops, and those were probably the ones that were literally right at him, and probably not even all of them. Addi, on the other hand, has a line of outs stretching across the left side of the infield, and there are a few lonely dots in the outfield that he allowed to get past him. And that's just on one particular type of play. That doesn't even include the balls Addi has to range way over to make, like the one I linked in my previous post. So on this one sample of plays, in 1/3 of the season... we now have visual proof of how many damn balls he is stopping.

[Tim]

I'm not seeing it on front page, but you can link but clicking through to cubs articles tab on front page.

 

Tim might have to put it on the front page. Here is a link, though: http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/24-statcast-fun-with-addison-russell

 

if my last post doesn't make my feelings obvious, good stuff, man.

 

just need to find a way to get eyeballs on these.

Yeah, if people could retweet, or post a link in other places, it would be greatly appreciated. Duke's work deserves the attention.

[Sammy Sofa]

between the subtext on the header and the duke silver idea, i'm on [expletive] fire here

 

I predict that within 100 years David will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger and so expensive that only the five richest kings in Europe could own him.

[sneakypower]

I thought those spray charts I showed at the end were interesting, too. Addi makes those plays so often, that we are (at least I am) kinda numb to it. It's just like, "Oh nice play, Addi."

eh, like you alluded to in the article, the Starlin Castro experience (which i still remember more fondly than i probably ought to) kind of taught us that no ground ball should be taken for granted

[Sammy Sofa]

the Starlin Castro experience (which i still remember more fondly than i probably ought to)

 

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/dont_you_say_that_billy_madison.gif

 

WE CAN HAVE ENJOYED TWO THINGS.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I thought those spray charts I showed at the end were interesting, too. Addi makes those plays so often, that we are (at least I am) kinda numb to it. It's just like, "Oh nice play, Addi."

eh, like you alluded to in the article, the Starlin Castro experience (which i still remember more fondly than i probably ought to) kind of taught us that no ground ball should be taken for granted

 

Oh, sure. I'm just saying that it is hard to quantify exactly how often that happens. We know he's made a lot. But, exactly how many of them are balls another guy isn't getting? For instance, we've seen a number of plays that Zobrist has just come up short on this year. And people make a comment about how Addi or Javy would have had it. But, do we really know that? And how many of them actually are happening that way? Statcast is going to be able to help us figure that out.

[Sammy Sofa]

I thought those spray charts I showed at the end were interesting, too. Addi makes those plays so often, that we are (at least I am) kinda numb to it. It's just like, "Oh nice play, Addi."

eh, like you alluded to in the article, the Starlin Castro experience (which i still remember more fondly than i probably ought to) kind of taught us that no ground ball should be taken for granted

 

Oh, sure. I'm just saying that it is hard to quantify exactly how often that happens. We know he's made a lot. But, exactly how many of them are balls another guy isn't getting? For instance, we've seen a number of plays that Zobrist has just come up short on this year. And people make a comment about how Addi or Javy would have had it. But, do we really know that? And how many of them actually are happening that way? Statcast is going to be able to help us figure that out.

 

I can't help but think that defensive metrics feel a bit like sorcery and medieval divining at times. Like I see Soler look terrible in the OF and, like you said, say something like "oh, Heyward would have had that, no problem," and then if you try and figure out WHY you feel like you know that it just comes down to, "I just know, OK?!?" So much of it just feels like continual confirmation bias.

[David]

the Starlin Castro experience (which i still remember more fondly than i probably ought to)

 

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/dont_you_say_that_billy_madison.gif

 

WE CAN HAVE ENJOYED TWO THINGS.

 

i saw the last post first with this one embedded into your response and i misread it as having come from you. i was shocked at the dose of realism. now everything makes sense again.

[Sammy Sofa]

Or look at it this way (since Castro already came up): his streaky offensive production is being killed by both BR and FG saying he's having the worst defensive year of his career. But I do a quick Google search looking for Yankee blogs or boards griping about his defense and I seemingly can't find anything. I'd think that if he's THAT much worse defensively you'd think people would be up in arms; he got plenty of horsefeathers from Cubs' fans even when his defense was fine, and that rep definitely seemed to be something he was known for, so you'd think fans of his new team would basically be anticipating him to suck in the field. So what's so much worse this year? More errors? Worse range? As shitty as I am at advanced metrics to begin with, the defensive ones just make me feel completely lost.

[Sammy Sofa]

the Starlin Castro experience (which i still remember more fondly than i probably ought to)

 

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/dont_you_say_that_billy_madison.gif

 

WE CAN HAVE ENJOYED TWO THINGS.

 

i saw the last post first with this one embedded into your response and i misread it as having come from you. i was shocked at the dose of realism. now everything makes sense again.

 

Just let the people love!

[David]

Or look at it this way (since Castro already came up): his streaky offensive production is being killed by both BR and FG saying he's having the worst defensive year of his career. But I do a quick Google search looking for Yankee blogs or boards griping about his defense and I seemingly can't find anything. I'd think that if he's THAT much worse defensively you'd think people would be up in arms; he got plenty of [expletive] from Cubs' fans even when his defense was fine, and that rep definitely seemed to be something he was known for, so you'd think fans of his new team would basically be anticipating him to suck in the field. So what's so much worse this year? More errors? Worse range? As [expletive] as I am at advanced metrics to begin with, the defensive ones just make me feel completely lost.

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS#fielding

 

he was "worse" defensively in 2011, but that was at SS, so it was more valuable than being as bad as he is at 2B this year. he's a couple runs worse than he graded out at 2B last year. nothing that should raise any eyebrows.

 

it's not like offensive production can't vary wildly from year to year (especially in the case of starlin castro)...obviously it's easier for the layman to see but that doesn't, in itself, place the fielding metrics into question.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Or look at it this way (since Castro already came up): his streaky offensive production is being killed by both BR and FG saying he's having the worst defensive year of his career. But I do a quick Google search looking for Yankee blogs or boards griping about his defense and I seemingly can't find anything. I'd think that if he's THAT much worse defensively you'd think people would be up in arms; he got plenty of [expletive] from Cubs' fans even when his defense was fine, and that rep definitely seemed to be something he was known for, so you'd think fans of his new team would basically be anticipating him to suck in the field. So what's so much worse this year? More errors? Worse range? As [expletive] as I am at advanced metrics to begin with, the defensive ones just make me feel completely lost.

 

Yeah, here's the main problem with our current defensive metrics. It's all about opportunity. If you range further over than any other player at your position is physically able and the ball is still even a millimeter from your glove and you don't make the play, then you don't get any credit. Let's say that happens to you ten times on all ten balls hit out to you. You're not helping your metrics. But, Joe Blow over there is a slightly above average defender and he has ten balls hit to a spot that, say, only 40% of fielders can get to. And all ten balls hit to him are right there and he makes all ten plays. He's going to look like a stud according to the metrics.

 

Now, this is obviously taking things to the extreme. But defensive metrics right now measure what has happened. It's all about opportunity. You don't get a chance to show off your arm unless there's a guy on base. And if there isn't a chance to show off your arm, you aren't going to get credit for it by these metrics.

 

This extreme that I mention, though, well it happens, maybe not to that extreme. But take this article from fangraphs from early in the year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-watch-adam-eaton-save-12-runs/

 

Adam Eaton was just racking up defensive runs saved left and right. Like, he had a crazy amount of defensive value according to these metrics. Why? He was getting a ton of opportunities to do so. He's now leveled off.

 

So let's go back to the whole low-liner, high-velocity events I wrote about in that article. BABIP is an average. On average, Addi has been way better than everyone else at this skill. However, and this goes back to my previous article about the Cubs avoiding hard contact, he hasn't had that many opportunities to show off this skill. The Cubs only give up batted balls in this category on 0.20% of the pitches they throw, less than half of some teams. This is the fourth-lowest percent in the league.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=100&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=0&launch_angle_lt=9&distance_gt=70&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=-25&batted_ball_angle_lt=0&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=pitch_percent&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results

 

 

So Addi might not be getting enough chances to show off his superior skills. And the metrics aren't going to give him credit for plays he hasn't had to make. Addi's made 9 stops on these types of balls. So have Erick Aybar and whatever other scrubs have been playing short for Atlanta. The difference: Addi's only let five of them go by, while they have let 14 go by. That could be a problem in these metrics, since they are probably assuming nobody is getting to them anyway,

[Aaron_Kennelly]

So when DRS says Russell has saved 5 more runs than an average shortstop this year, they are probably pretty close. He's probably saved 5 more runs than an average guy would have saved had the average guy had the same balls hit at him. But, he might have the capability of saving many more runs if given the opportunity. Maybe the weak contact induced by Cubs pitching has held him back. Maybe he's just been unlucky. Maybe it's the other way around.

[sneakypower]

Castro's 19th/26 among 2B (who've logged 250 inn.) in converting balls within his zone to outs, and he hasn't really made very many plays outside of his zone (Cano's somehow made more than 3x as many) so it adds up to a pretty poor fielder

 

he's been pretty average in terms of errors though so it can be understood if Yankees fans aren't particularly aggrieved at obvious blunders he's been making, it might be more that he has relatively poor reactions due to unfamiliarity with the position

[Tracer Bullet]

I made another post for the front page. It's not quite as long. Should be a fun read for people that like Addison Russell's defense.

I'm not seeing it on front page, but you can link but clicking through to cubs articles tab on front page.

 

Tim might have to put it on the front page. Here is a link, though: http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/24-statcast-fun-with-addison-russell

 

Really fantastic work, Duke. Truly a great read.

 

But if you ever take a shot at Castro again, my 11 year old son is going to hunt you down and kill you in your sleep. just a heads up.

[Tracer Bullet]

Wonder if he was named after Aidos, the greek god of humility