2016 Trade Deadline

[Tim]

You know who else had outperformed his FIP in every year of his career (until 2016)? Shelby Miller.

 

Please don't pay the price for Teheran.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Re: Teheran and beating FIP: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-julio-teheran-an-ace/

 

It's too bad they didn't make things work for him when his pricetag would've been lower over the offseason, although it's hard to complain about the Cubs' current lot in life. I think FIP-beaters/contact managers are a spot where the Cubs are generally ahead of the curve, and their past interest is probably another validating anecdote towards Eno's thesis in that article.

[Guest]

What is Vogelbach's value? He's hulk-smashing AAA, and his peripherals have been about as rock-solid as any I've ever seen. the guy is going to be a major league hitter for a very long time, and New York might be a fit. Would the Yankees take him and maybe one lesser piece for one of their lefties? he's a total can't miss as a DH. He'd be their best hitter by far if they bring him up immediately.

 

I realize that he's not nearly as sexy a name as Schwarber, but they ain't getting Schwarber. But Vogelbach is ready to step into an American league lineup and rake.

Edited July 2, 2016 by Stannis

[Sammy Sofa]

sulley not being Chunk's agent seems like a huge missed opportunity.

[Guest]

sulley not being Chunk's agent seems like a huge missed opportunity.

 

have you seen his slash line when viewed in tandem with his bb/k ratio? that type of hitter doesn't just happen very often. dude can hit, he's a mess in the field though.

[Guest]

15.3% bb rate and sub 20% k rate? hitting for power? 23 years old? why is every team in the AL not on the phone right now trying to pry this kid away?

[Sammy Sofa]

Wasn't he pretty underwhelming, to say the least, until this season?

[Guest]

he's always carried a pretty ridiculous isod, but he'd never really fulfilled his power potential until this year. he's been consistent with his peripherals.

 

I wouldn't say underwhelming at all, though. he has a career .388 obp in the minors and an .872 OPS.

[Gilby]

I lean more toward Sully's side on this one. Even last year, Vogelbach put up a .390 wOBA in Double-A. He didn't hit for much power, but he had an 18% BB rate and a 19% K rate. That's gonna play. And now the power is there; yeah it's the PCL, but he also plays for Iowa. Dude's gonna be in the majors for a looong time crushing right-handed pitchers. I can understand why the Yankees would want more as a centerpiece for Miller (though a Schwarber-level talent ain't happening) but I'd jump at the opportunity, if I were the Yankees, to move half a season of Chapman for 6+ years of Vogelbach at DH, benefiting from the short porch.

 

And actually, as I type that, I wouldn't mind holding out for a starter this year or in the offseason for Vogelbach+ (and the + would have to be someone of significance), though I would love Chapman.

[Sammy Sofa]

he's always carried a pretty ridiculous isod, but he'd never really fulfilled his power potential until this year. he's been consistent with his peripherals.

 

I wouldn't say underwhelming at all, though. he has a career .388 obp in the minors and an .872 OPS.

 

But like you said, the power wasn't there until this year. It makes sense other teams aren't going to see him as a "can't miss DH" until they see a longer track record of him being more than a gigantic OBP-machine.

[Guest]

15.3% bb rate and sub 20% k rate? hitting for power? 23 years old? why is every team in the AL not on the phone right now trying to pry this kid away?

 

He can't do anything else and the power only magically showed up in the PCL after going on a 3+ year hiatus. I think he'll get a shot and see a ML paycheck just out of some team's curiosity and an overall dearth of bats, but there's a reason why Cubs blogs and forums are where you find his most vocal support on the internet.

 

he makes fewer outs than everyone else. that's something important.

[Tim]

he's always carried a pretty ridiculous isod, but he'd never really fulfilled his power potential until this year. he's been consistent with his peripherals.

 

I wouldn't say underwhelming at all, though. he has a career .388 obp in the minors and an .872 OPS.

 

But like you said, the power wasn't there until this year. It makes sense other teams aren't going to see him as a "can't miss DH" until they see a longer track record of him being more than a gigantic OBP-machine.

There was always some sort of extenuating circumstance around the power outages. For example, last year it was an injury that made him miss part of the year and regularly saps power for a while when returning.

 

I've always maintained that if there was one thing I wasn't concerned about with Vogelbach it was him eventually tapping into the raw power.

[Sammy Sofa]

he's always carried a pretty ridiculous isod, but he'd never really fulfilled his power potential until this year. he's been consistent with his peripherals.

 

I wouldn't say underwhelming at all, though. he has a career .388 obp in the minors and an .872 OPS.

 

But like you said, the power wasn't there until this year. It makes sense other teams aren't going to see him as a "can't miss DH" until they see a longer track record of him being more than a gigantic OBP-machine.

There was always some sort of extenuating circumstance around the power outages. For example, last year it was an injury that made him miss part of the year and regularly saps power for a while when returning.

 

I've always maintained that if there was one thing I wasn't concerned about with Vogelbach it was him eventually tapping into the raw power.

 

Sure, but it still wasn't there, and now he's just putting those numbers up in the PCL. Any team that wants him right now is going to want him from a potential/"show me if you can keep doing this"-standpoint and not, "oh boy, here's our DH." It just seems like there's a small, very vocal contingent of Cubs fans that seem to severely overrate his value at this point in time.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Preface: I like Vogelbach, recently I said his breakout was the least publicized good news of the minor league season.

 

That said, Vogelbach having his power show up in games and carrying a high OBP isn't a plus that makes him extra valuable, it is the bare minimum to him being a worthwhile major leaguer. His complete lack of defensive value puts him in so much of a hole otherwise, and players that DH most of the time are either albatross contracts(Mauer, Pujols, Fielder), or they really rake(Cruz, VMart, Encarnacion). If you think Vogelbach can fake his way at 1B, then he has a decent amount of trade value, especially to an AL team and especially an AL team that needs a prospect's cost effectiveness. But his defense and positional value lower his ceiling so much that he's not going to be the lead player in any trade for real MLB value. He's the guy who helps fill out the 3-4 person deal, he's not going to be lead piece for Andrew Miller even if the Yankees weren't delusional about Miller's value.

[Guest]

Preface: I like Vogelbach, recently I said his breakout was the least publicized good news of the minor league season.

 

That said, Vogelbach having his power show up in games and carrying a high OBP isn't a plus that makes him extra valuable, it is the bare minimum to him being a worthwhile major leaguer. His complete lack of defensive value puts him in so much of a hole otherwise, and players that DH most of the time are either albatross contracts(Mauer, Pujols, Fielder), or they really rake(Cruz, VMart, Encarnacion). If you think Vogelbach can fake his way at 1B, then he has a decent amount of trade value, especially to an AL team and especially an AL team that needs a prospect's cost effectiveness. But his defense and positional value lower his ceiling so much that he's not going to be the lead player in any trade for real MLB value. He's the guy who helps fill out the 3-4 person deal, he's not going to be lead piece for Andrew Miller even if the Yankees weren't delusional about Miller's value.

 

Kendrys Morales, Corey Dickerson, Byung-ho Park, Avisail Garcia, Billy Butler, off the top of my head. these are guys that aren't any of those things and guys that Vogelbach would outperform. yet they've been deemed worthy of regular spots in the order by major league teams...and some of them contenders. It's not like the DH is something where you absolutely positively must have every single nuanced need accounted for. you can simply be a guy that hits reasonably well and gets on base at a pretty good clip to provide value.

 

in addition, John Kruk provided a lot of value on teams that couldn't even sit him on the bench when they went out in the field, and he didn't hit an exceptional amount of home runs. that's the type of player Vogelbach looks to be, even looking past the obvious disgusting body type and oddly conservative political viewpoint. he's got that type of understanding of the strike zone.

[Guest]

I mean, what's the average OPS of DH's?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Preface: I like Vogelbach, recently I said his breakout was the least publicized good news of the minor league season.

 

That said, Vogelbach having his power show up in games and carrying a high OBP isn't a plus that makes him extra valuable, it is the bare minimum to him being a worthwhile major leaguer. His complete lack of defensive value puts him in so much of a hole otherwise, and players that DH most of the time are either albatross contracts(Mauer, Pujols, Fielder), or they really rake(Cruz, VMart, Encarnacion). If you think Vogelbach can fake his way at 1B, then he has a decent amount of trade value, especially to an AL team and especially an AL team that needs a prospect's cost effectiveness. But his defense and positional value lower his ceiling so much that he's not going to be the lead player in any trade for real MLB value. He's the guy who helps fill out the 3-4 person deal, he's not going to be lead piece for Andrew Miller even if the Yankees weren't delusional about Miller's value.

 

Kendrys Morales, Corey Dickerson, Byung-ho Park, Avisail Garcia, Billy Butler, off the top of my head. these are guys that aren't any of those things and guys that Vogelbach would outperform. yet they've been deemed worthy of regular spots in the order by major league teams...and some of them contenders. It's not like the DH is something where you absolutely positively must have every single nuanced need accounted for. you can simply be a guy that hits reasonably well and gets on base at a pretty good clip to provide value.

 

in addition, John Kruk provided a lot of value on teams that couldn't even sit him on the bench when they went out in the field, and he didn't hit an exceptional amount of home runs. that's the type of player Vogelbach looks to be, even looking past the obvious disgusting body type and oddly conservative political viewpoint. he's got that type of understanding of the strike zone.

 

You're a lot higher(or maybe more certain) of Vogelbach's MLB production than most people. I get why, and I don't think he's going to be a AAAA washout, but that doesn't move the needle enough for most teams to think of him as a centerpiece of a trade. There are no shortage of bat-first guys in the high minors who you can make similar extrapolations with, and most of them will not end up with Kendrys Morales' career, or they have some positional value(like Dickerson and Garcia) that gives them second chances.

 

Put more simply, teams are not going to line up to give real MLB value exclusively for Vogelbach, a likely DH who likely won't be much better than league average at being a DH in a positive outcome. Just like the Cubs are not going to trade Baez for someone like Matt Wisler.

[Guest]

Kendrys Morales, Corey Dickerson, Byung-ho Park, Avisail Garcia, Billy Butler, off the top of my head. these are guys that aren't any of those things and guys that Vogelbach would outperform.

 

That is nowhere near a given and probably not true.

 

the outstanding peripheral stats that Vogelbach has had his entire minor league career don't just go away, and are fairly predictive at each level. he could hit .250/.350/400 and out OPS ARod by almost .100 points.

[Guest]

You're a lot higher(or maybe more certain) of Vogelbach's MLB production than most people. I get why, and I don't think he's going to be a AAAA washout, but that doesn't move the needle enough for most teams to think of him as a centerpiece of a trade. There are no shortage of bat-first guys in the high minors who you can make similar extrapolations with, and most of them will not end up with Kendrys Morales' career, or they have some positional value(like Dickerson and Garcia) that gives them second chances.

 

But you have to look at what they do well. the bat-first guys in the minors who hit a ton of home runs but strike out at a rate that one simply cannot have and sustain a major league career. Those guys don't have what Vogelbach has, and that's a rock solid approach at the plate and understanding of the strike zone that gives him a really high floor as a hitter.

 

Put more simply, teams are not going to line up to give real MLB value exclusively for Vogelbach, a likely DH who likely won't be much better than league average at being a DH in a positive outcome. Just like the Cubs are not going to trade Baez for someone like Matt Wisler.

 

eh, I think that's a lazy generalization and fails to see that he has a skill that's very valuable to major league teams. not all abilities are equal. maybe teams don't want him because he has no position, that's fair. maybe theo and jed have had offers for him but won't part with him for what's been offered.

[Gilby]

"Underwhelming" isn't how I'd describe his performance lately.

[Guest]

the outstanding peripheral stats that Vogelbach has had his entire minor league career don't just go away

 

Neither does the overall underwhelming performance for a guy who brings no other tools or skills to the table.

 

like I said, he has a career .872 OPS in the minors with a .388 OBP. the only ones underwhelmed by that are those who aren't really paying attention.

[Guest]

I think people saw the video of some fat kid hitting those moon-bomb-dongs at that high school all-star game and figured he was some power prodigy, and when he didn't hit a ton of home runs to begin his minor league career, they were disappointed and forgot about him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

eh, I think that's a lazy generalization and fails to see that he has a skill that's very valuable to major league teams. not all abilities are equal. maybe teams don't want him because he has no position, that's fair. maybe theo and jed have had offers for him but won't part with him for what's been offered.

 

Vogelbach's skill(and like Tom I think you're overselling the certainty that Vogelbach is an above average MLB hitter today) is only valuable if there is a place to put him. Could Vogelbach be useful to a number of teams? Sure. But teams aren't going to shell out much for someone who can play 0.5 positions and hasn't demonstrated that one skill at the MLB level. I mean, you just said he'd be the Yankees best hitter today, that's silly. There's more of an adjustment from AAA to MLB than just scaling down the triple slash line, even if the peripherals are promising. Especially for a guy who hasn't been within 150 points of OPS of this year's production at any full-season stop.

[Guest]

eh, I think that's a lazy generalization and fails to see that he has a skill that's very valuable to major league teams. not all abilities are equal. maybe teams don't want him because he has no position, that's fair. maybe theo and jed have had offers for him but won't part with him for what's been offered.

 

Vogelbach's skill(and like Tom I think you're overselling the certainty that Vogelbach is an above average MLB hitter today) is only valuable if there is a place to put him. Could Vogelbach be useful to a number of teams? Sure. But teams aren't going to shell out much for someone who can play 0.5 positions and hasn't demonstrated that one skill at the MLB level. I mean, you just said he'd be the Yankees best hitter today, that's silly. There's more of an adjustment from AAA to MLB than just scaling down the triple slash line, even if the peripherals are promising. Especially for a guy who hasn't been within 150 points of OPS of this year's production at any full-season stop.

 

i'll try to dig up some minor league hitters with similar career slash lines and bb/k rates.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

the outstanding peripheral stats that Vogelbach has had his entire minor league career don't just go away

 

Neither does the overall underwhelming performance for a guy who brings no other tools or skills to the table.

 

like I said, he has a career .872 OPS in the minors with a .388 OBP. the only ones underwhelmed by that are those who aren't really paying attention.

 

Vogelbach had an .814 OPS at Kane County, .798 in Daytona and an .828 OPS at Tennessee. His career mark is driven by this year's promising breakout, and short season performance that isn't terribly applicable.

 

Or to be more to the point, prior to this season, the most likely outcome for Vogelbach was not being an MLB regular in any sense of the word. That's why I originally said that this year's performance is what makes him at all valuable, instead of super duper valuable.