Jean Segura and stuff to D'Backs for Aaron Hill and stuff

[Cubswin11]

KLaw breaking the news

[Smack]

Remember when he turned down a $38M contract extension? I'm guessing he regrets that. He's been awful since the first half of his rookie season.

[Cubswin11]

Remember when he turned down a $38M contract extension? I'm guessing he regrets that. He's been awful since the first half of his rookie season.

such a terrible decision by him, even at the time it was questionable at best.

[Cubswin11]

Remember when he turned down a $38M contract extension? I'm guessing he regrets that. He's been awful since the first half of his rookie season.

such a terrible decision by him, even at the time it was questionable at best.

[Smack]

I know it's sacrilege to compliment them, but I like that D'Backs IF group around Goldschmidt.

 

One possible IF depth chart:

 

1B: Goldschmidt

2B: Owings/Ahmed/Drury/Segura

SS: Segura/Ahmed/Owings

3B: Lamb/Drury/Ahmed

 

Lots of guys between the ages 24-26 in the IF. Lots of guys who hit in the minors, were quality prospects, and still very cheap. Segura's only 26 this year, hit in the minors, is a legit ML MIF defensively, and put up a .752 OPS at SS in his age 23 season. The average age of the infield outside of Goldschmidt is ~25 years old.

 

Segura had a .616 OPS last year which was 138th out of 141 qualified players. That was a slight improvement over his 2014 numbers when he had a .614 OPS 143/146. He's been the worst offensive everyday player in baseball over the last two years.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Smack

[davell]

They don't have an awful team.(and you're right, that INF looks pretty decent) Its that they could do so much more. I can't stand Cameron, but his tweet made a lot of sense. They didn't want to give up their 2nd rounder in order to sign Kendrick, but they'll give up a guy(Diaz) that's probably worth more than the pick, for a guy(Segura)that's likely not as good as the guy they could have just signed, especially during what's likely Greinke's best years.....

 

Its not a bad team, they conceivably have a slim shot at the playoffs, they just took a dumb as hell road to get there.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The biggest problem with the trade is that Jean Segura is bad and he presumably was traded for because they intend him not to be bad, which will probably bite them. All the MIF options are RH so there's no platoon/time-sharing benefit either.

 

That doesn't means there's anything inherently wrong with gambling that Segura turns things around after 1100 MLB PAs of replacement level hacking, but it also doesn't move the needle much. They're still a mediocre team(Steamer says 9th in the NL, 3rd in the West, well behind the true WC contenders), and they still have 4 to 6 spots where they will likely be below average on offense(including 2-3 IF spots). Trading for Segura does not make Arizona appreciably better than they were yesterday, signing Kendrick would have.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I know it's sacrilege to compliment them, but I like that D'Backs IF group around Goldschmidt.

 

One possible IF depth chart:

 

1B: Goldschmidt

2B: Owings/Ahmed/Drury/Segura

SS: Segura/Ahmed/Owings

3B: Lamb/Drury/Ahmed

 

Lots of guys between the ages 24-26 in the IF. Lots of guys who hit in the minors, were quality prospects, and still very cheap. Segura's only 26 this year, hit in the minors, is a legit ML MIF defensively, and put up a .752 OPS at SS in his age 23 season. The average age of the infield outside of Goldschmidt is ~25 years old.

 

Segura had a .616 OPS last year which was 138th out of 141 qualified players. That was a slight improvement over his 2014 numbers when he had a .614 OPS 143/146. He's been the worst offensive everyday player in baseball over the last two years.

 

I'm aware. Still only 26, only making $2.6m, healthy and durable, already has a .752 OPS season under his belt from his age 23 season, has a good track record of hitting in the minors, proven ML MIF defense....There's a lot to like, and it only cost them a contract and player they didn't want or need, a depth arm, and some prospect I assume everyone likes now.

 

davell, Cameron misses that they'd be giving up pool money in the draft and that Diaz is a short season/rookie ball SS on a team with a bunch of 24-26 year old shortstops. Kendrick signed for more than 3 times what they will pay Segura, they got to dump Hill's contract (long a goal), Segura is half a decade+ younger and can play SS.....That guy, I can't stand that guy - Dave Cameron.

 

None of these things matter when you are a replacement-level player.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

I'm aware. Still only 26, only making $2.6m, healthy and durable, already has a .752 OPS season under his belt from his age 23 season, has a good track record of hitting in the minors, proven ML MIF defense....There's a lot to like, and it only cost them a contract and player they didn't want or need, a depth arm, and some prospect I assume everyone likes now.

 

davell, Cameron misses that they'd be giving up pool money in the draft and that Diaz is a short season/rookie ball SS on a team with a bunch of 24-26 year old shortstops. Kendrick signed for more than 3 times what they will pay Segura, they got to dump Hill's contract (long a goal), Segura is half a decade+ younger and can play SS.....That guy, I can't stand that guy - Dave Cameron.

 

None of these things matter when you are a replacement-level player.

 

Cool, still better off with them than without. If he bounces back a little on offense - this is a guy who hit .313/.367.439 in the minors to go with that age 23 season in the majors - the D'Backs found themselves a bargain. Like I said - all it cost was their oldest, most expensive player (after Greinke) coming off a .640 OPS, one of their generic depth arms, and some SS prospect that got a bunch of new fans today by virtue of being in the trade.

 

TT, yeah I thought Owings was LH. Getting Segura and clearing Hill's deal is a big plus for them overall, clearing the contract and improving the youth and defense from Hill's roster spot - that has plenty of value in itself. While there are question marks about all their IFs outside of Goldschmidt and Lamb to a lesser extent, all these guys hit in the minors and were on top prospect lists as recent as 2014. All have at least flashed above average bats in the majors, Segura for a whole season in 2013. It's not a slam dunk good group, but it is a young and talented one with good depth.

 

I agree with the first part, sure. The start of this second sentence is what I am alluding to, though. Those things only matter if he improves -- a lot, not a little -- offensively. If he doesn't, then he is still the replacement-level player he has been the last two years, and him being healthy and durable doesn't really matter at all.

 

Also, his minor league stats got progressively worse as he went up each rung of the ladder. He might just be a guy that is over-matched by big league pitching, as evidenced by his 2.2% BB% and .268 wOBA last year.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Duke Silver

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The reasons to not sign Kendrick are already stated and still stand. They didn't need to pay another aging 2B $10 million when they just went through that whole process with Hill - AND Hill would still be on the roster. So now there's two roster spots going to 2B, ages 32 and 34 in 2016, for a combined $22 million. What about this move would get praised if it actually happened?

 

Hill was a sunk cost. Why are you factoring that into a Kendrick signing?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I agree there's risk, but it's one worth taking on for them. It definitely, definitely beats stacking 30+ year old 2B on for multiple years at 8 figure salaries. Whereas they had $12 million dollars into hoping Aaron Hill bounced back at 34 - at 3B where one of their better young hitters is, they now have $2.6 million in Segura bouncing back offensively up the middle at age 26. They get younger, cheaper, faster, better defensively up the middle and save nearly $10 million doing it.

 

Yeah, except Kendrick isn't a replacement-level player like Segura. And they also gave up one of their top-ten prospects and a generic depth arm, who happened to be better than Segura in each of the last two seasons.

[bukie]

My younger brother is a defensive, healthy 26 year old making far less than 2.6 million. He's about as good a buy-low candidate as Segura.

[Smack]

My younger brother is a defensive, healthy 26 year old making far less than 2.6 million. He's about as good a buy-low candidate as Segura.

 

He probably doesn't play in one of the best offensive parks in baseball either.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Yeah, except Kendrick isn't a replacement-level player like Segura. And they also gave up one of their top-ten prospects and a generic depth arm, who happened to be better than Segura in each of the last two seasons.

 

The D'Backs just went through Hill's age 32-33 seasons at the same position for a similar salary. While Kendrick was a little better than Hill as a player, they're not wildly far off career wise, and Kendrick enters the exact ages where Hill fell off a cliff with the D'Backs. Why set themselves up to repeat the situation, cost themselves pool money and a draft pick, and *still* have to deal with Hill's situation? Do they pay someone to take on Hill?

 

Not to mention that Kendrick showed signs of decline last year, and got $10 million off a 1 WAR season. I have seeeeerious doubts people would be praising the D'Backs if they signed Kendrick - they'd be talking about having he and Hill on the payroll, how they gave up a draft pick and pool money...I could imagine Dave Cameron now.

 

As flash and exciting as "one of their top-ten prospects" sounds these days, it's a player who just repeated - albeit mashed - rookie ball. They drafted him in the 4th round, so possibly they fill that giant hole he left with the second round pick they still have.

 

Now a FA that maybe should start interesting them is Dexter Fowler...

 

Umm, yes. They just paid someone $ and one of their top prospects to take him on. So why couldn't they do the same thing if they signed Kendrick?

[davell]

I think I saw the D-Backs are paying 6.5 of Hill's deal.

 

At any rate, according to Law, they've now traded their 1st rounder from 2015, their 1st and 4th from 2014, and their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders from 2013.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I think I saw the D-Backs are paying 6.5 of Hill's deal.

 

At any rate, according to Law, they've now traded their 1st rounder from 2015, their 1st and 4th from 2014, and their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders from 2013.

 

So with Segura's 2.6 + the 6.5 they are sending, and losing Hill's 12, they saved about $3 million with this deal. Well done!

[davell]

I think I saw the D-Backs are paying 6.5 of Hill's deal.

 

At any rate, according to Law, they've now traded their 1st rounder from 2015, their 1st and 4th from 2014, and their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders from 2013.

 

So with Segura's 2.6 + the 6.5 they are sending, and losing Hill's 12, they saved about $3 million with this deal. Well done!

 

I went back and looked. They're evidently SAVING 6.5, so they're sending 5.5.

 

As an aside, after this deal, they're 10.1 WAR behind the Giants and 17.5 behind the Dodgers according to Fangraphs.

[davell]

No, the point is after they'd already punted their 1st, its much easier to punt your 2nd. Signing Kendrick(or anyone attached to a pick) is much more palatable when your 1st is already gone.

 

Maybe not in THEIR case, since they've squandered so many assets already though.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Umm, yes. They just paid someone $ and one of their top prospects to take him on. So why couldn't they do the same thing if they signed Kendrick?

 

They gave up prospect in rookie ball that nobody cared about until he got traded and didn't eat the whole contract. Say they get the same deal the Dodgers got - 2/20 - for Kendrick, and pay some team the rumored $6.5 million in a separate move to get rid of Hill. What about spending $16.5 million at one position for the age 32 season of a player coming off a 1 WAR season sounds like a good idea or better move?

 

At any rate, according to Law, they've now traded their 1st rounder from 2015, their 1st and 4th from 2014, and their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders from 2013.

 

D'Backs give up picks...bad. D'Backs don't give up pick for Kendrick....bad. All bases are covered.

 

Why do you keep tacking Hill's money onto Kendrick? That's not how things work. If you want to describe it as paying $16.5 million for Kendrick, then can I describe this as 2.6 for Segura plus 6.5 for Hill as being $9.1 million for a replacement-level player in Segura?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

No, the point is after they'd already punted their 1st, its much easier to punt your 2nd. Signing Kendrick(or anyone attached to a pick) is much more palatable when your 1st is already gone.

 

Maybe not in THEIR case, since they've squandered so many assets already though.

 

If they're going to blow their 2nd round pick, it would have been very, very foolish to blow it on Kendrick. Being willing to move some picks in their recent past doesn't mean you blow all the picks. A FA worth blowing that pick on isn't available unless they can maybe convince Fowler to play LF.

 

I mean, I can get on board with you here. I never suggested that doing so would be a smart thing, on balance. I think doing so still leaves them a bit lacking in terms of contending for the playoffs. So why blow that pick on a 30-something league-average-at-best middle infielder? The answer to my question would be: Well, they spent a [expletive] of money on Greinke and they pretty much have to go for it now, so why the hell not? At least it makes them better, and makes their chances of making the playoffs a little better, with some variance here and there.

 

The problem is: This Segura trade doesn't even make them better. Segura sucks. So now, they gave up a decent prospect, and they still didn't get better. At least Kendrick makes the team better.

[davell]

No, the point is after they'd already punted their 1st, its much easier to punt your 2nd. Signing Kendrick(or anyone attached to a pick) is much more palatable when your 1st is already gone.

 

Maybe not in THEIR case, since they've squandered so many assets already though.

 

If they're going to blow their 2nd round pick, it would have been very, very foolish to blow it on Kendrick. Being willing to move some picks in their recent past doesn't mean you blow all the picks. A FA worth blowing that pick on isn't available unless they can maybe convince Fowler to play LF.

 

Its why I mentioned anyone attached to a pick. The off season didn't start today for them. They could have gone in a multitude of directions. They evidently weren't even pursuing Greinke and signed him within a day of contact. Which is fine and all, he's obviously a great pitcher. But, if you're going to try and win, they NEEDED to sign a 2nd big FA on top of him or sign 2 guys with the money used on Greinke.

 

All I'm saying is for them to have burned the currency they have and to still be THAT far out of the mix.....Its just bad.

[davell]

They're not going from Hill to Segura though. They're going from Owings to Segura. So they got a bit older and stayed about the same defensively.