2016 Cardinals ZiPS

[David]

Full projections out tomorrow

 

 

 

lol at these peasants

[David]

btw i think their catcher WAR is too high but i try not to nitpick these

[Brian707]

Does that project them to around 86 wins?

[davell]

Closer to 88, I think....Replacement level is 47.6, I think.

[Cubswin11]

Molina doesn't get his cast off until mid-February on his thumb from his second surgery because they fucked it up the first time/it never took whatever they tried to fix and Carlos Martinez says he feels about 90% with his shoulder. I'd be pretty surprised if at least 1 of those guys doesn't miss significant time this year, if not both.

[The_Achiever]

Surprised (pleasantly) that they didn't spend on an outfielder. Not in cespedes' final 3, only fowler remains.

 

They're the cardinals and I wouldn't count them out, but they'd look a whole lot better with a proven OF bat IMO.

[David]

Surprised (pleasantly) that they didn't spend on an outfielder. Not in cespedes' final 3, only fowler remains.

 

They're the cardinals and I wouldn't count them out, but they'd look a whole lot better with a proven OF bat IMO.

 

Could still trade for a Rockies OF too

[The_Achiever]

Surprised (pleasantly) that they didn't spend on an outfielder. Not in cespedes' final 3, only fowler remains.

 

They're the cardinals and I wouldn't count them out, but they'd look a whole lot better with a proven OF bat IMO.

 

Could still trade for a Rockies OF too

 

Ah that's right. But I'd rather they give up something to get one rather than just buying it. Regardless I hope they stay as is.

[David]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/

 

Here's the actual projections

[StylesClash]

So is the main reason the production of Piscotty and Grichuk is projected to decline so heavily based upon the high BABIP's last season? Also based upon ZIP projections were the Nats projected to win the NL East last season? I'm just trying to get a gauge on how seriously these projections should be taken in terms of accuracy.

[Sammy Sofa]

So is the main reason the production of Piscotty and Grichuk is projected to decline so heavily based upon the high BABIP's last season? Also based upon ZIP projections were the Nats projected to win the NL East last season? I'm just trying to get a gauge on how seriously these projections should be taken in terms of accuracy.

 

Basically based only looking at their projections for a single team that basically everyone had at least going deep into the playoffs? Why would them being wrong about the Nats mean they must be wrong about a team with an absurd BABIP backsliding the next season?

[Sammy Sofa]

Though I'm pretty sure you're just that one banned secret Cardinals fan anyway, sooooo...

 

http://i.giphy.com/TyPydeCmjKQ2Q.gif

[StylesClash]

Though I'm pretty sure you're just that one banned secret Cardinals fan anyway, sooooo...

 

http://i.giphy.com/TyPydeCmjKQ2Q.gif

 

So if I were a secret Cardinal fan what would my motivation have been for being really enthusiastic after the 2004 Nomar acquisition? Or the 2007 Rammy walkoff again Francisco Cordero?

 

I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly.

 

Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Though I'm pretty sure you're just that one banned secret Cardinals fan anyway, sooooo...

 

http://i.giphy.com/TyPydeCmjKQ2Q.gif

 

So if I were a secret Cardinal fan what would my motivation have been for being really enthusiastic after the 2004 Nomar acquisition? Or the 2007 Rammy walkoff again Francisco Cordero?

 

I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly.

 

Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season.

 

Have you looked at the talent we have developed and acquired recently? Hell, we acquired their talent this off-season.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly.

 

It drives me nuts when people hem and haw about the Cardinals' luck and "pixie dust," but last year really was a case of that kind of coming true, both in terms of their offense and pitching. It wasn't a matter of something teachable or signable; they had a LOT of luck. And as unlikely as it was for them to pull that off for most of one season, it becomes absurdly unlikely to think they'll somehow do it again the next season. The Cardinals didn't stumble across some mystic equation that cracks the BABIP code or allows them to strand runners practically at will.

 

If the Cardinals win more than 85 games this year, it's not going to be a repeat of how they won as many games as they did last year.

 

Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season.

 

BABIP can be a huge factor. Some guys are good enough to maintain success with a high BABIP, but most tend to come back to Earth. It's not like they're being projected to fall off of a cliff.

 

And people think you're a "secret" Cardinals fan because basically all you post about is how good you think the Cardinals will be.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly.

 

It drives me nuts when people hem and haw about the Cardinals' luck and "pixie dust," but last year really was a case of that kind of coming true, both in terms of their offense and pitching. It wasn't a matter of something teachable or signable; they had a LOT of luck. And as unlikely as it was for them to pull that off for most of one season, it becomes absurdly unlikely to think they'll somehow do it again the next season. The Cardinals didn't stumble across some mystic equation that cracks the BABIP code or allows them to strand runners practically at will.

 

If the Cardinals win more than 85 games this year, it's not going to be a repeat of how they won as many games as they did last year.

 

Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season.

 

BABIP can be a huge factor. Some guys are good enough to maintain success with a high BABIP, but most tend to come back to Earth. It's not like they're being projected to fall off of a cliff.

 

And people think you're a "secret" Cardinals fan because basically all you post about is how good you think the Cardinals will be.

 

To expand, these guys didn't even carry BABIPs like that in the minors. There are hundreds of ABs we have data on them from their time in the minors, and they didn't prove to be some of those guys that can maintain high BABIPs during this time. Why should we believe that they suddenly figured out how to do so at a much tougher level?

 

Also, it's not just the BABIP. They also carried higher ISOs than they ever did in the minors. And, I mean, it was like 250-300 PAs for both of them. If you want to draw some sweeping conclusion from 300 plate appearances that these guys just suddenly improved everything about their offensive games, despite facing tougher pitching than they've ever seen, then, sure, go for it. But, I'm a little more reticent to do so, as are the projections.

 

Also, these guys are like 25 and were never top prospects. Sure, they might pull a Matt Carpenter. But, I'm really not that worried. Give me the 21- 22-year-old kids like Schwarber and Russell that have always been viewed as uber-talents and have always put up monster numbers throughout the minors as more likely to exceed projections.

 

And even if Piscotty and Grichuk are to maintain those excessive spikes in BABIP and ISO and replicate their success from last year, who gives a horsefeathers? The Cards would still be, like, 10 games worse than us.

 

In conclusion, I have to agree, if this guy is a Cubs fan and has been paying attention to any of the events of the last year or so, then he is either completely un-discerning or the world's biggest pessimist. Otherwise, he is definitely a Cardinals fan.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly.

 

It drives me nuts when people hem and haw about the Cardinals' luck and "pixie dust," but last year really was a case of that kind of coming true, both in terms of their offense and pitching. It wasn't a matter of something teachable or signable; they had a LOT of luck. And as unlikely as it was for them to pull that off for most of one season, it becomes absurdly unlikely to think they'll somehow do it again the next season. The Cardinals didn't stumble across some mystic equation that cracks the BABIP code or allows them to strand runners practically at will.

 

If the Cardinals win more than 85 games this year, it's not going to be a repeat of how they won as many games as they did last year.

 

Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season.

 

BABIP can be a huge factor. Some guys are good enough to maintain success with a high BABIP, but most tend to come back to Earth. It's not like they're being projected to fall off of a cliff.

 

And people think you're a "secret" Cardinals fan because basically all you post about is how good you think the Cardinals will be.

 

To expand, these guys didn't even carry BABIPs like that in the minors. There are hundreds of ABs we have data on them from their time in the minors, and they didn't prove to be some of those guys that can maintain high BABIPs during this time. Why should we believe that they suddenly figured out how to do so at a much tougher level?

 

Also, it's not just the BABIP. They also carried higher ISOs than they ever did in the minors. And, I mean, it was like 250-300 PAs for both of them. If you want to draw some sweeping conclusion from 300 plate appearances that these guys just suddenly improved everything about their offensive games, despite facing tougher pitching than they've ever seen, then, sure, go for it. But, I'm a little more reticent to do so, as are the projections.

 

Also, these guys are like 25 and were never top prospects. Sure, they might pull a Matt Carpenter. But, I'm really not that worried. Give me the 21- 22-year-old kids like Schwarber and Russell that have always been viewed as uber-talents and have always put up monster numbers throughout the minors as more likely to exceed projections.

 

And even if Piscotty and Grichuk are to maintain those excessive spikes in BABIP and ISO and replicate their success from last year, who gives a [expletive]? The Cards would still be, like, 10 games worse than us.

 

In conclusion, I have to agree, if this guy is a Cubs fan and has been paying attention to any of the events of the last year or so, then he is either completely un-discerning or the world's biggest pessimist. Otherwise, he is definitely a Cardinals fan.

 

http://i.giphy.com/sUnUMs1c0OeQ.gif

[Tim]

I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly.

 

It drives me nuts when people hem and haw about the Cardinals' luck and "pixie dust," but last year really was a case of that kind of coming true, both in terms of their offense and pitching. It wasn't a matter of something teachable or signable; they had a LOT of luck. And as unlikely as it was for them to pull that off for most of one season, it becomes absurdly unlikely to think they'll somehow do it again the next season. The Cardinals didn't stumble across some mystic equation that cracks the BABIP code or allows them to strand runners practically at will.

 

If the Cardinals win more than 85 games this year, it's not going to be a repeat of how they won as many games as they did last year.

 

Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season.

 

BABIP can be a huge factor. Some guys are good enough to maintain success with a high BABIP, but most tend to come back to Earth. It's not like they're being projected to fall off of a cliff.

 

And people think you're a "secret" Cardinals fan because basically all you post about is how good you think the Cardinals will be.

 

To expand, these guys didn't even carry BABIPs like that in the minors. There are hundreds of ABs we have data on them from their time in the minors, and they didn't prove to be some of those guys that can maintain high BABIPs during this time. Why should we believe that they suddenly figured out how to do so at a much tougher level?

 

Also, it's not just the BABIP. They also carried higher ISOs than they ever did in the minors. And, I mean, it was like 250-300 PAs for both of them. If you want to draw some sweeping conclusion from 300 plate appearances that these guys just suddenly improved everything about their offensive games, despite facing tougher pitching than they've ever seen, then, sure, go for it. But, I'm a little more reticent to do so, as are the projections.

 

Also, these guys are like 25 and were never top prospects. Sure, they might pull a Matt Carpenter. But, I'm really not that worried. Give me the 21- 22-year-old kids like Schwarber and Russell that have always been viewed as uber-talents and have always put up monster numbers throughout the minors as more likely to exceed projections.

 

And even if Piscotty and Grichuk are to maintain those excessive spikes in BABIP and ISO and replicate their success from last year, who gives a [expletive]? The Cards would still be, like, 10 games worse than us.

 

In conclusion, I have to agree, if this guy is a Cubs fan and has been paying attention to any of the events of the last year or so, then he is either completely un-discerning or the world's biggest pessimist. Otherwise, he is definitely a Cardinals fan.

What he said. :good:

[David]

I will say that piscotty was a decently regarded prospect (like top 50ish at one point, iirc) and he did make tangible approach and swing changes to hit for more power last year, so he might be more legit than his history says. Or he might not be. Doesn't really matter that much.

 

Also, I'm not sure who writing off the cardinals would be "risky" for, but it's not us.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I will say that piscotty was a decently regarded prospect (like top 50ish at one point, iirc) and he did make tangible approach and swing changes to hit for more power last year, so he might be more legit than his history says. Or he might not be. Doesn't really matter that much.

 

Also, I'm not sure who writing off the cardinals would be "risky" for, but it's not us.

 

Yeah, he is definitely the more likely to repeat his performance or come close to it. His walk and K-rates are also much more conducive for sustained success. But, he also isn't really going to give you any value outside of with his bat. He's not much of a base runner or defender and is stuck in a corner outfield spot. Much like Soler, he's gonna have to hit a lot to have value.

 

Grichuk, I think is a near certainty to see some serious regression this year, though.

[Cubswin11]

Did Grichuck have any sort of surgery in the offseason on his arm, since he literally couldn't throw at the end of the year?

[Clem Fandango]

Did Grichuck have any sort of surgery in the offseason on his arm, since he literally couldn't throw at the end of the year?

 

Ha! Forgot about that. NVR4GET

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/?content_id=466885983&topic_id=6479266

[StylesClash]

I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly.

 

It drives me nuts when people hem and haw about the Cardinals' luck and "pixie dust," but last year really was a case of that kind of coming true, both in terms of their offense and pitching. It wasn't a matter of something teachable or signable; they had a LOT of luck. And as unlikely as it was for them to pull that off for most of one season, it becomes absurdly unlikely to think they'll somehow do it again the next season. The Cardinals didn't stumble across some mystic equation that cracks the BABIP code or allows them to strand runners practically at will.

 

If the Cardinals win more than 85 games this year, it's not going to be a repeat of how they won as many games as they did last year.

 

Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season.

 

BABIP can be a huge factor. Some guys are good enough to maintain success with a high BABIP, but most tend to come back to Earth. It's not like they're being projected to fall off of a cliff.

 

And people think you're a "secret" Cardinals fan because basically all you post about is how good you think the Cardinals will be.

 

To expand, these guys didn't even carry BABIPs like that in the minors. There are hundreds of ABs we have data on them from their time in the minors, and they didn't prove to be some of those guys that can maintain high BABIPs during this time. Why should we believe that they suddenly figured out how to do so at a much tougher level?

 

Also, it's not just the BABIP. They also carried higher ISOs than they ever did in the minors. And, I mean, it was like 250-300 PAs for both of them. If you want to draw some sweeping conclusion from 300 plate appearances that these guys just suddenly improved everything about their offensive games, despite facing tougher pitching than they've ever seen, then, sure, go for it. But, I'm a little more reticent to do so, as are the projections.

 

Also, these guys are like 25 and were never top prospects. Sure, they might pull a Matt Carpenter. But, I'm really not that worried. Give me the 21- 22-year-old kids like Schwarber and Russell that have always been viewed as uber-talents and have always put up monster numbers throughout the minors as more likely to exceed projections.

 

And even if Piscotty and Grichuk are to maintain those excessive spikes in BABIP and ISO and replicate their success from last year, who gives a [expletive]? The Cards would still be, like, 10 games worse than us.

 

In conclusion, I have to agree, if this guy is a Cubs fan and has been paying attention to any of the events of the last year or so, then he is either completely un-discerning or the world's biggest pessimist. Otherwise, he is definitely a Cardinals fan.

 

I'm absolutely pessimistic when it comes to the rotation. Two of our starters are above the age of 30 (with a lot of mileage on their arms). Another has had two awful second halves in a row (and at age 33 is no where near a sure thing to rebound to anything close to his 2014/2015 first half forms). And Arrieta blew by his single season career high innings total in 2015.

 

Combine that with the fact that there's no impact arms in the farm system and I think there's reason to at least be a bit nervous (although the Warren acquisition does alleviate some of that concern).

 

Also you can dislike a team while still respecting their results. Dominating for years without tanking previously, and rarely spending big on free agents, is an accomplishment.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Confirmed Cardinals fan.

[StylesClash]

Confirmed Cardinals fan.

 

Ok? I guess I purchased an authentic Mark Prior jersey, as well as t-shirt Zambrano and Lee jersey's for the heck of it. Just because I don't drink Cub koolaid on every issue doesn't make me a Cardinal fan. The lineup will likely be the NL's best. The bullpen should be just fine. I'm just nervous about an old rotation with a lot of mileage/consistency issues.