Wei-Yin Chen Thread?

[davell]

Bruce Levine ‏@MLBBruceLevine 2m2 minutes ago

 

Free agent Wei-Yin Chen on hot topic for Cubs

 

Hmm, I don't think I like this?

[Guest]

Well, I don't like it if it means we're out on Heyward.

[davell]

Well, I don't like it if it means we're out on Heyward.

 

That's why I ???? it. I'm guessing we have a natural progression of players to go thru....Maybe we know Heyward is a long shot, Gordon too? Maybe it's just them doing their extensive homework that has basically just connected us to everyone? Maybe, hoping beyond hope here, there's somehow money or a plan in place that allows for Chen AND a Heyward or Gordon?

[Tryptamine]

Um, are we really sure that Chen is even an upgrade? 4.16FIP and 4.01xFIP last year, even in his best year his peripherals weren't exactly thrilling(3.89FIP, 3.75xFIP,3.85 SIERA)

[toonsterwu]

I was noticeably wary when Chen came across to America a few years back (due to the reports that he lost velocity his last year in Japan), but now, I'm a believer that Chen is a very solid pitcher for a team. He's been miscast as essentially the "1" of the Orioles staff (well, Tillman started off as the "1" this past year), but Chen has been a very good pitcher for them.

 

There was an article on fangraphs awhile back about Chen's ability to beat FIP because his wide speed variance (fastball in the low 90's, but can ramp it up a bit higher in the summer), changeup/slider in that low 80's range, and a curve in the low 70's range). His breaking balls are inconsistent, and his success is predicated off fastball location, so if that fastball ever started to degrade, that could be a world of hurt for him unless there is arsenal improvement (and I think Orioles fans would note that his overall arsenal is probably sharper than when he first came to the States).

 

All that said, I'm going to be surprised if Chen signs early. Boras was talking 20 million AAV for Chen, and much as I like him, I don't think he's worth that unless there's a sudden market pressure creating an upswing post-Samardzija signing (I would, over the short term, gladly take Chen over Samardzija, though, as I think he'll be a more consistent arm). I'm also not hugely enthused with the idea of giving him a 4-5 year deal with an AAV in that range, and based on the offseason so far, I doubt Theo is going to do that and give up another pick.

 

Now, if Chen is hanging around in the spring because Boras overplayed his hand, then I could see the Cubs jump in, if the price came down a bit.

[davell]

5 year deal with a 6th year vesting option.....With the Marlins.

[Cubswin11]

5/80 with a 6 year vesting option that brings it to 96 and a opt out after 2 years.

[toonsterwu]

Seems like a good deal for the Fish. Market rate, but under market if he opts out. Odd, wouldn't have guessed Miami to start the off season. Good park for him to go to, which might be what Boras is banking on.

 

Thinking about it, this seems like a different type of opt out. Whereas most opt-outs seem geared towards getting the player more year, or more money, this opt out seems, on the surface, more like a get out of jail card ("If you really hate it there, we can get you another team in 2 years"). It's just hard to see Chen getting more than 3/52 in 2 years. Not impossible, but hard.

 

This opt out probably also encourages the Marlins to deal him this summer if they are struggling and he's doing well. That said, if some things break right for the Marlins, they could have a competitive squad and be a darkhorse candidate for the playoffs. To lazy to look up the projections, but that rotation looks relatively solid, and if a couple bats step up, it could be interesting.