Mike Leake

[David]

This'll make sneaky happy

 

[Guest]

If Leake would be the "big" SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should be excited about him?

 

If he's our second biggest SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should think he's better than Hammel or Hendricks? Is it just the innings/durability?

[Guest]

I don't outright hate him as a target thanks to his health and durability at the back of a rotation.

As a primary or secondary addition?

[Guest]

If Leake would be the "big" SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should be excited about him?

 

If he's our second biggest SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should think he's better than Hammel or Hendricks? Is it just the innings/durability?

 

Durable, young for a FA(will be 28 all next year), cutter, consistently better than his FIP. He's definitely lower ceiling than some of the other discussed options, but durability is a higher need than upside in at least one of the SP they should acquire.

[weis21]

I wouldn't be terribly disappointed with a Shark/Leake combo for this off season. Even more so if it meant they were in heavy on Heyward, obviously. You can do a lot worse than a rotation of Arrieta/Lester/Shark/Leake/Hendricks (or Hammel).

 

That said, there are a million possibilities for how this offseason will go and I'm certain that it will strengthen next year's club. I'm just excited to see what transpires.

[Tryptamine]

There is almost no scenario you could give me that would make me excited about Mike Leake. [expletive] that guy.

[Guest]

yes but how do you feel about him

[Guest]

i could've sworn sneaky brought up his offensive value at one point, but i didn't really see anything that stood out too much when i last looked it up.

[sneakypower]

If Leake would be the "big" SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should be excited about him?

because Jason Heyward is going to run down all the fly balls he'll induce

 

and he'll be a nice #5 #4 when we trade off Gleyber Torres and young P at the deadline for a SP

 

edit: forgot about Jon Lester

[Tryptamine]

I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

[Guest]

I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

That's my issue with him.

[Guest]

If Leake would be the "big" SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should be excited about him?

because Jason Heyward is going to run down all the fly balls he'll induce

 

and he'll be a nice #5 #4 when we trade off Gleyber Torres and young P at the deadline for a SP

 

edit: forgot about Jon Lester

You didn't convince me.

[Guest]

I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

 

I'd rather he not be our best SP add, but if they signed Heyward and Leake and otherwise (mostly) rolled with the roster we have, I wouldn't be all that distraught.

 

Just doesn't cover as much for some Lester (because older) or Arrieta (because too damn good) regression as I'd like.

[Guest]

I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

That's my issue with him.

 

Steamer has Leake pitching 40 more innings next year than Hammel, 30 more than Hendricks. Or put another way, 25% more IP than Hammel and 18% more IP than Hendricks.

 

Adding Leake is about minimizing risk and downside. It is not sexy and it is not likely to be some unmitigated success like the Arrieta trade or signing Lester, but it is a true positive nonetheless.

[Guest]

I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

That's my issue with him.

 

Steamer has Leake pitching 40 more innings next year than Hammel, 30 more than Hendricks. Or put another way, 25% more IP than Hammel and 18% more IP than Hendricks.

 

Adding Leake is about minimizing risk and downside. It is not sexy and it is not likely to be some unmitigated success like the Arrieta trade or signing Lester, but it is a true positive nonetheless.

That comes at a cost of significantly degrading the innings that are pitched, going by the very resource you are using for the projections.

[Guest]

I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

That's my issue with him.

 

Steamer has Leake pitching 40 more innings next year than Hammel, 30 more than Hendricks. Or put another way, 25% more IP than Hammel and 18% more IP than Hendricks.

 

Adding Leake is about minimizing risk and downside. It is not sexy and it is not likely to be some unmitigated success like the Arrieta trade or signing Lester, but it is a true positive nonetheless.

That comes at a cost of significantly degrading the innings that are pitched, going by the very resource you are using for the projections.

 

Steamer isn't going to be great at projecting Leake, they basically match up his career FIP, which he's outproduced by a decent margin over his 1000+ IP at the MLB level, and even moreso in recent years. We can be pretty comfortable that Leake is not a performance downgrade, plus his repertoire is Bosio-friendly so we can hope for some uptick as well.

[Guest]

I really, really can't agree with that. I think one thing we can be confident of is that Leake will be a performance downgrade when both guys are healthy. We can also be more confident that Leake will stay healthy. But that means that we are putting an inferior pitcher into the rotation when both guys are healthy.

[Guest]

I think one thing we can be confident of is that Leake will be a performance downgrade when both guys are healthy.

 

This requires a really simplistic view of how those pitchers get outs and prevent runs, and also focusing exclusively on the positives that Hammel and Hendricks bring. It's not true.

[Guest]

I think one thing we can be confident of is that Leake will be a performance downgrade when both guys are healthy.

 

This requires a really simplistic view of how those pitchers get outs and prevent runs, and also focusing exclusively on the positives that Hammel and Hendricks bring. It's not true.

Whereas your position requires a really simplistic assumption that just because he outproduced his FIP the past few years he'll do it again.

[Guest]

I think one thing we can be confident of is that Leake will be a performance downgrade when both guys are healthy.

 

This requires a really simplistic view of how those pitchers get outs and prevent runs, and also focusing exclusively on the positives that Hammel and Hendricks bring. It's not true.

Whereas your position requires a really simplistic assumption that just because he outproduced his FIP the past few years he'll do it again.

 

Yes, I'm confident that Leake's performance relative to his FIP that he's reached over 1000 IP is not a fluke. His career xFIP is a touch lower than his career ERA too, so it requires a really hard line on assuming that the cutter thrower with high GB rates is going to have his BABIP regress to league average.

[sneakypower]

everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)

[Tryptamine]

everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)

 

Leake can't take over a game like Samardzija can. Leake is also projected to make 5/80

[Guest]

Leake is also projected to make 5/80

 

by who?

[sneakypower]

everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)

 

Leake can't take over a game like Samardzija can. Leake is also projected to make 5/80

well, yeah, he can

 

last 3 years

starts w/ 7+ IP, 2- ER:

Shark - 38% / Leake - 37%

 

but also Leake doesn't bomb a game quite like Samardzija can...

 

starts w/ 4+ ER:

Shark - 37% / Leake - 32%

[Guest]

everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)

 

Leake can't take over a game like Samardzija can. Leake is also projected to make 5/80

 

Let's put that to the test. Here's a count of starts with at least 6 IP and 0 or 1 ER given up.

 

Leake

 

2015: 10 starts

2014: 10 starts

2013: 12 starts

 

Samardzija

 

2015: 7 starts

2014: 14 starts

2013: 9 starts

 

So if you can be sure you're getting 2014 Shark, yeah I think you can make that argument. Otherwise, I'm not so sure.