Rotation Guesses

[craig]

South Bend: Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele.

Q's:

*Will Stinnett be perhaps left behind? Martinez?

*Derek Johnson loves Null, so he's expected to start. Will Null affirm that in spring and make the rotation? Or will he blah-out and lose his spot?

*Will both Sands and Steele look good enough to make this step? Or will one or perhaps both struggle enough to get left behind?

*Will anybody from the Norwood/Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson crowd look sharp and win a spot?

 

Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, and Torrez

*If Stinnett doesn't make it, might Martinez or Skulina compete?

*Skulina seems a forgotten man, but he was somewhat hurt last year. Sometimes a new year and new health can lead to new results.

 

Will the long-lost Trey Masek appear in professional baseball? Heh heh, remember at draft how optimistic some of us were with Tyler Skulina, Trey Masek, and Scott Frazier?

 

Tennessee: Zastryzny. Will either Johnson or Edwards return to Tennessee? Will Corey Black, and if so in rotation again? Maybe they'll just push Skulina up and start him, and tell him to sink or swim?

[Guest]

South Bend options: Conway, Norwood, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele, Stinnett

 

Sands and Steele are the wild cards here for me, they're high picks so I could definitely see either/both in full season ball, but the FO has been very cautious with developing arms, especially HS arms. I'll say Sands and Steele stay in Arizona, and come up and piggy back after Stinnett(who has a young arm himself) establishes himself in full season ball then heads to Daytona.

 

Myrtle Beach options: Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez, Skulina

 

Those first 5 seem like pretty safe bets to me, and Skulina finished at Daytona too. There's also several guys who struggled that could be lingering to pick up SP innings like Pena, Rosario, even Scott.

 

Tennessee options: Zastryzny, Johnson, Edwards, Scott, Pineyro, Black

 

Like with Daytona there's some other names that appear to have hit their ceiling at the level, but I'll say that Johnson gets to go to Iowa and Edwards sticks around with the other 4 to make up the rotation. Black is a surefire reliever but there's no one else dying to get his innings so he'll stay in a rotation.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

is Scott Frazier still in baseball after last season?

[craig]

South Bend options: Conway, Norwood, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele, Stinnett

 

Sands and Steele are the wild cards here for me, they're high picks so I could definitely see either/both in full season ball, but the FO has been very cautious with developing arms, especially HS arms. I'll say Sands and Steele stay in Arizona, and come up and piggy back after Stinnett(who has a young arm himself) establishes himself in full season ball then heads to Daytona.

 

Myrtle Beach options: Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez, Skulina

 

Those first 5 seem like pretty safe bets to me, and Skulina finished at Daytona too. There's also several guys who struggled that could be lingering to pick up SP innings like Pena, Rosario, even Scott.

 

Tennessee options: Zastryzny, Johnson, Edwards, Scott, Pineyro, Black

 

Like with Daytona there's some other names that appear to have hit their ceiling at the level, but I'll say that Johnson gets to go to Iowa and Edwards sticks around with the other 4 to make up the rotation. Black is a surefire reliever but there's no one else dying to get his innings so he'll stay in a rotation.

 

Agree that Sands and Steels are key. Sands will be 20 when the season opens. Steele turns 20 this summer, and is less experienced pitching. Wouldn't surprise if Sands made South Bend but Steele didn't.

 

I'll be pretty disappointed if we see roster-fill guys like Pena, Scott, or Rosario starting in A-ball. I pretty much figure the full KC rotation will all move up (Underwood, Tseng, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez) unless there is somebody else they WANT to see at Myrtle. Stinnett or Skulina, that might be true, so they might need to hold somebody back or piggy-back. But I don't think they'll do that on account of Scott, Pena, or Rosario.

 

AA will be really thin, as it was last summer and as was true at Daytona. Well, I suppose unless they start BOTH Edwards and Johnson there. One long-shot for AA is Michael Jensen. He was pretty good at Peora three years ago, finishing very strongly; and finished pretty strong in rehab year at Daytona last summer. Being two years off of surgery now, I'd be a lot more interested in him than guys like Scott or Pena, or Pineyro, at AA.

 

I'll be surprised if Wild Black is still starting again. But, given the lack of competition for AA rotation, maybe they'll figure he giving him the innings is still best developmentally.

[Guest]

Assuming health, looks like these guys are all rotation locks. No surprises:

 

Arizona Phil[/url]"]More "live" BP at Minor League Camp today (Sunday 3/16):

 

THREE INNINGS (45 pitches) 

Paul Blackburn

Trevor Clifton 

Erick Leal 

Jeremy Null 

Daury Torrez 

 

TWO INNINGS (30 pitches)  

Andres Santiago 

 

Torrez got drilled for two HR (Candelario and Hankins) in his seciond inning of work.

 

As I have mentioned before, pitchers who throw innings in "live" BP at Minor League Camp are being primed to be starting pitchers for "full season" teams.   

[craig]

Thanks, cal, for AzPhil link. He had some other days of listed starters. As you said, no surprises.

*Steele hurt his ankle in camp, so he's going to fall behind. Given that he was questionable to start with, I expect that will seal it and he'll stay back in XST.

*Pineyro is healthy enough to be pitching "starter" innings.

*Paniagua, no surprise, pitched a 1-inning outing, suggesting he's tracking for relief.

*Phil said that Underwood started but got pulled after one inning, unknown why.

*Norwood working like a starter, I'd wondered if he'd be an XST or perhaps a power-relief guy. Glad he's still with the starters.

*Leal working like a starter. I'd wondered if he'd be a lesser prospect and be filtered out.

*Skulina worked like a starter, another guy I'd though might be slid to relief. May still, but still in the pool.

 

Mostly all unsurprising stuff, so for the moment still seems consistent with:

 

South Bend options: Sands, Clifton, Null, Conway, Norwood, Leal (Stinnett)

Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Skulina, Martinez

Tennessee options: Zastryzny, Pineyro, Johnson, Edwards, ???

 

*With Johnson and Edwards, I wonder if either or both will start at Tennessee?

*Tennessee could have some roster-filler type guys, or not-so-interesting types. But A- and A+ both look really interesting.

*I'm expecting Stinnett to start at Myrtle Beach. And Sands to start full-season.

*Phil had very few and zero unexpected "unable to participate" guys listed on his roster. But, not sure that means he knows. There may be variable guys who aren't healthy who he doesn't know about (yet). And with 2+ more weeks of camp, there are additional opportunities for guys to twist an ankle or come down with a sore elbow before the season actually begins. Cubs are very cautious with injuries, so seems likely there will be some "expected" guys who aren't ready to break camp with the full season rosters.

*I think about the prospects I view as younger and more interesting. But often, they end up starting some guys who are more experienced and perhaps not so high-ceiling. So it wouldn't shock me at all if one or more from the James Ferris, Ryan Thorpe, Ryan Williams group, for example, ended up starting at South Bend or Myrtle Beach.

[craig]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/113091452/mlb-pipeline-checks-in-from-cubs-camp

 

Callis:

On the Minor League side, right-hander Tyler Skulina is showing why the Cubs invested $800,000 in him as a fourth-round Draft pick in 2013. Fully recovered from a sore knee that hampered him last year, he's back to throwing 92-95 mph fastballs and hard sliders with downhill plane and difficult angle.

 

McLeod

"His arrow is pointing north after he understood what he needed to do as a pro," McLeod said of Underwood. "He has the most upside of all of our starting pitchers. He can sit 94 mph and he has two swing-and-miss offspeed pitches. His changeup can be very good."

 

Stinnett: There are certain things in my delivery that could help me be more consistent. My front foot was a little unstable, so I've been working on that. It's helping me throw strikes more. I've trying to develop my third pitch, my changeup, that I'll need to be a starter.

[craig]

With Skulina apparently healthy and throwing well, I wonder if the Cubs may actually consider just shooting him up to AA, where I don't think they really have 5 rotation prospects?

 

Amazing how many Tennessee/Daytona starts were absorbed by guys who were pretty much non-prospects even at the time.

*Last year's AA roster had the following rotation starts: Loosen 19 Rhee 16 Figueroa 11

Gardner 10 Pena 6 Antigua 4 Julio Rodriguez 3

*Daytona: Scott 26 Pena 19 Rosario 16 Dorris 11

Wang 11 Amlung 9 Wells 5 Kirk 1

 

Maybe Stinnett will still hold back at South Bend for a while, beats me.

[toonsterwu]

Fascinating comment by McLeod on Underwood, IMO, in 2 regards - first, that he has the most upside (I thought that was the case, but it seemed like there were enough folks that questioned it ... and McLeod seems very definitive in saying that), and second, perhaps more importantly, it seems like any work ethic concerns from 2 years ago, so far, isn't an issue again.

 

Stinnett in South Bend would be fine. He is fairly raw after all, and perhaps they are tinkering with some things. Who knows. It would be much easier for some of the higher ups to keep an eye on his development than in Myrtle Beach. I'd rather see him in Myrtle Beach and get challenged, but if he needs a month or so in South Bend, okay.

 

I would really like to see Jensen get some innings in AA. That said, if his velocity and stuff are back, I'd be surprised if he isn't fast-tracked as a pen arm. Still, getting some innings to work on things would be fine, and if his stuff is as good as it was once, that'd be a nice asset. I would much rather see Jensen in the rotation than Black, as I think Black is a surefire lock for the pen and might as well give someone innings who might have an outside, wish upon a start shot. Wouldn't be surprised if we get a surprise for a 5th job in Tennessee, though.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I really liked Skulina coming out of college. Nice to hear that his stuff seems to be back.

[craig]

Fascinating comment by McLeod on Underwood, IMO, in 2 regards - first, that he has the most upside (...

 

Stinnett ... is fairly raw after all, and perhaps they are tinkering with some things. .... I'd rather see him in Myrtle Beach and get challenged, but if he needs a month or so in South Bend, okay..

 

On Underwood, we know he can throw hard. But the comments about his "two swing-and-miss offspeed pitches, his changeup can be very good" is what caught my attention. What some of the BA-type reports have suggested that each of his pitches looked good at times, but he rarely if ever had them all working at the same time. My friend who saw him get hammered one game said the scouts he was sitting with said he was telegraphing which pitch was coming. (Obviously that wasn't true subsequently.) I think the "swing-and-miss" pitches also haven't been true for long, since he hasn't been a serious K-guy. But 84K/101IP is decent, and way better than the 27K/54IP in Boise. Work in progress, we'll see. But with his velocity, if his curve and change can both be quality swing-and-miss pitches, he could be really good.

 

On Stinnett, I know he hasn't pitched for long. But I'm not sure "raw" is how Derek Johnson sees him. I think they view his delivery and repeatability to actually be pretty advanced, and see him as something of a fast-mover. I guess it would be the change that's raw, even if fastball/slider are in pretty good shape.

[toonsterwu]

I meant raw simply as in he's relatively new to pitching, so if they wanted to slow it down and have him at South Bend, it isn't exactly a bad thing. I would agree that his stuff/feel should be advanced enough for A+.

[craig]

South Bend: Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele.

Q's: *Will Stinnett be perhaps left behind? Martinez?

*Will both Sands and Steele look good enough to make this step? Or will one or perhaps both struggle enough to get left behind?

*Will anybody from the Norwood/Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson crowd look sharp and win a spot?

 

Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, and Torrez

*If Stinnett doesn't make it, might Martinez or Skulina compete?

*Skulina seems a forgotten man, but he was somewhat hurt last year. Sometimes a new year and new health can lead to new results.

....

 

Some recent Az Phil stuff:

*Norwood pitched 4 shutout innings, retiring the last 11 guys. He was getting rotation innings, and pitching well in them, in an earlier Phil report as well. Write him in for SB.

*Stinnett allowed 5 runs in recent start. That's presumably not the kind of domination and command that would get him a Myrtle spot. So probably write him in for SB too.

*Steele got hit in the ankle (I think) earlier in spring, and missed some time. The other day he pitched versus Canadian amateurs, but only 1 inning .

*No indication that any of the Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson are getting rotation innings.

 

Revised SB: Stinnett, Norwood, Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands (6)

Revised MB: Skulina, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez (6)

*My understanding is that Skulina has been looking good, so perhaps he'll get promoted fairly shortly if he starts well, or perhaps they'll just start him up at AA right out of the gate.

[craig]

Today Phil had Corey Black starting, although he got lifted after 2.1, after walks four guys plus a WP. (Wild is wild, I guess.)

 

Pimentel pitched 4, so perhaps they don't have enough actual prospects to populate the Tennessee rotation, and will need a roster-fill guy like that still?

 

Interestingly, Edwards also pitched in that game; in relief. Gave up 3 runs and walked 3 in his single inning of work. Disappointing, both his wildness and that he wasn't starting.

 

The Cubs could struggle in the lower minors to score runs. Over the last three rounds, Zagunis, Hannemann, and Bruno are the only top-10-round hitters drafted by the Cubs outside of the first round. So while the A-ball pitching might be really, really fascinating and exciting, the lineups in A-ball might be really packed with organizational guys, and very thin on real hitting prospects.

 

I suppose SB could have Zagunis and Torres, so that's at least two, and perhaps at some point Eloy as well.

MB could have Caratini? And I suppose Hannemann and Candelario.

Tennessee should have Almora, Vogelbach, and Schwarber, so I guess that's not without interest.

[Guest]

Ash Marshall of MLB.com talked with Jaron Madison about placement tonight, I'll dump everything here even though it's not only SP stuff:

 

- Kevonte Mitchell might make South Bend, could still go the XST/Eugene route

- Jimenez and Torres both likely to break camp with South Bend

- Stinnett "will battle for a spot" at South Bend

- Amaya will be South Bend's every day catcher (which appears to mean Caratini to MB too)

- The following guys are headed to Myrtle Beach: Candelario, Zagunis, Hannemann, Blackburn

- McKinney may be in Myrtle Beach or Tennessee

- Schwarber and Almora will start at Tennessee

- 50/50 whether Villanueva is at Iowa or Tennessee (yikes)

- Still unsure if Edwards is Iowa or Tennessee bound

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

why on earth would McKinney be in MB?

[toonsterwu]

Ash Marshall of MLB.com talked with Jaron Madison about placement tonight, I'll dump everything here even though it's not only SP stuff:

 

- Kevonte Mitchell might make South Bend, could still go the XST/Eugene route

- Jimenez and Torres both likely to break camp with South Bend

- Stinnett "will battle for a spot" at South Bend

- Amaya will be South Bend's every day catcher (which appears to mean Caratini to MB too)

- The following guys are headed to Myrtle Beach: Candelario, Zagunis, Hannemann, Blackburn

- McKinney may be in Myrtle Beach or Tennessee

- Schwarber and Almora will start at Tennessee

- 50/50 whether Villanueva is at Iowa or Tennessee (yikes)

- Still unsure if Edwards is Iowa or Tennessee bound

 

- Amaya being South Bend's everyday catcher should be a good sign. I had been wondering if he'd be sent to XST to get some more work in, but if they feel he's ready to take a full season gig as the main guy ...

 

- Cartaini should be in Myrtle Beach. There was no reason for him to be in South Bend. I suspect he'll split with Zagunis there, or he'll be the main catcher with Zagunis getting the backup and OF time.

 

- Stinnett "battling" for a spot in South Bend sure doesn't sound positive, to say the least.

 

- Wouldn't have a huge problem if they kept McKinney in Myrtle Beach to start.

[Guest]

I could be projecting, but in the context of the guy's tone(@AshMarshallMLB if you're curious), I took the Stinnett comments as more of a platitude that he's going to be at SB. Could be wrong though.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

i get that mckinney is barely 20, but it's not like he played a couple months in high-a, it was a full season.

[craig]

McKinney, there was reference to needing to work on his defense. He's also had an injury in camp, which may be impacting him.

[craig]

Ash Marshall, on Zagunis

‏@AshMarshallMLB

@BleacherNation Cubs LOVE his speed and athleticism. Already advanced on basepaths. Will play most in CF, but bat profiles in corners too.

===========

 

Zagunis moving from catcher to primarily center field, if Madison and Marshall are actually right about that, is an interesting and somewhat unusual shift on the defensive spectrum.

 

Z's obviously a lot faster than Almora, but while I'd heard he runs well, I'd assumed that was more "fast for a catcher", as opposed to "center-field fast". So I'd assumed a move to the OF would be to a corner rather than center, and his power wouldn't look that hot in a corner.

 

But, if he emerged as a good defensive CFer, his offense might have more starter-potential. Of course we all want Almora to thrive and have a great season and a great career for the Cubs. But CF is one defensive spot where we don't have a lot of present options if Almora fails. Perhaps Zagunis will emerge as a possible option.

 

Very interesting development, I think. Speed and athleticism are great, of course. But they're most great when a guy can also hit. My understanding is that the Cubs not only love his speed and athleticism, but they foremost love his hitting. *If* he's got pitch recognition and plate discipline skills, combined with really good contact skills, he could *maybe* be pretty nice. Easy to think based on Eugene and a few KC games, though; that will be tested greatly in the carolina League. If Almora and Zagunis became two CF possibilities, they'd be interesting in their opposite offensive profiles. High-walk OBP Zagunis versus no-walk Almora.

[Guest]

well that's interesting

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

well, that came out of nowhere. and it's kind of hard to believe his bat could also profile in a corner given he hit 2 hrs in 57 games last year.

[craig]

well, that came out of nowhere. and it's kind of hard to believe his bat could also profile in a corner given he hit 2 hrs in 57 games last year.

 

He hit two more in the playoffs, so 4/63 or something? That would reflect a 10-HR pace. Scouts project as they like, so if they project him as a 10-14 HR guy, that might play OK if other thing were good.

 

Mark Grace averages 12HR/162 games. If Zagunis had Grace-level power, with Grace-level OBP, I'm sure that could play OK in LF. OK, obviously ridiculous.

[craig]

Phil mentions Skulina going down from Tennessee to Daytona group. He had a relatively ineffective outing. Not sure what the "promotions/demotions" really mean in camp; obviously normally guys are going down. Vogelbach isn't really likely to start with Iowa; we didn't really expect Torrez to start with Tennessee, etc.. So lots more coming.

 

Phil mentions Conway actually getting moved up a group, from SB to MB. Contra-normal. I imagine could just be populating the work groups better. Perhaps he's looking so controlled and polished that he's just flat-out earned a promotion and seems ready for Daytona. Or perhaps some rotation vs relief issue? Norwood and enough guys have emerged who are preferred SB starters, so perhaps they thought they might need him for rotation there, but now they don't anymore, so if he's not going to be pitching rotation anyway, why not bump him up a level for relief? Beats me.

 

Everything changes a lot once the season starts anyway.